yoda Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 546 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 DCC001-MDC031-033-VAC013-059-153-510-600-610-683-685-132200- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0410.000000T0000Z-210813T2200Z/ District of Columbia DC-Montgomery MD-Prince Georges MD- City of Fairfax VA-Arlington VA-City of Falls Church VA-Fairfax VA- City of Manassas Park VA-Prince William VA-City of Manassas VA- City of Alexandria VA- 546 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN PRINCE GEORGES...ARLINGTON...FAIRFAX...AND SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES...THE CITY OF FAIRFAX...THE CITY OF FALLS CHURCH... THE CITY OF MANASSAS PARK...THE CITY OF MANASSAS AND THE CITY OF ALEXANDRIA... At 545 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from College Park to near Centreville, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts, particularly near Oakton, Fairfax, Reston and Vienna. Golf ball size hail and trees and power lines blown down have been reported with this storm. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Arlington, Alexandria, Centreville, Dale City, Bethesda, Reston, Bowie, Annandale, Springfield, College Park, Fort Washington, Greenbelt, Fairfax, Langley Park, Beltsville, Fort Hunt, Vienna, Groveton, Forestville and Falls Church. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 547 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0543 PM HAIL 1 SSE OAKTON 38.88N 77.29W 08/13/2021 M1.75 INCH FAIRFAX VA TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 It's been interesting (from an aesthetic point of view anyway) being in the "notch" of the northern actvity. Dark on both sides and clear, orange skies ahead... *this means there was a MBY-split. No complaints have had almost 1.5" last3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 And now we have some more rain and rumbles of thunder on the back end...lol Fun storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 44 minutes ago, yoda said: Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 546 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 DCC001-MDC031-033-VAC013-059-153-510-600-610-683-685-132200- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0410.000000T0000Z-210813T2200Z/ District of Columbia DC-Montgomery MD-Prince Georges MD- City of Fairfax VA-Arlington VA-City of Falls Church VA-Fairfax VA- City of Manassas Park VA-Prince William VA-City of Manassas VA- City of Alexandria VA- 546 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN PRINCE GEORGES...ARLINGTON...FAIRFAX...AND SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES...THE CITY OF FAIRFAX...THE CITY OF FALLS CHURCH... THE CITY OF MANASSAS PARK...THE CITY OF MANASSAS AND THE CITY OF ALEXANDRIA... At 545 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from College Park to near Centreville, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts, particularly near Oakton, Fairfax, Reston and Vienna. Golf ball size hail and trees and power lines blown down have been reported with this storm. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Arlington, Alexandria, Centreville, Dale City, Bethesda, Reston, Bowie, Annandale, Springfield, College Park, Fort Washington, Greenbelt, Fairfax, Langley Park, Beltsville, Fort Hunt, Vienna, Groveton, Forestville and Falls Church. Can attest to the wind damage. This was one of the most intense events we've had IVO our house NW of Vienna since the derecho (which I missed while in Ohio). The gusts were easily in excess of 60. Our front yard looks like a war zone now. Lots of entire trees and large limbs down all around. Lost power with no ETA for restoration of service. Received 1.58" so far. Needed the rain, but not like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 Wasn’t a terribly interesting storm other than a strike that was no more that 200 yards away. Heavy rain for 4-5 minutes and no wind. Just want some stratiform rain for an hour or two now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: Just want some stratiform rain for an hour or two now. You can hit @EastCoast NPZ up for that. That’s his specialty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You can hit @EastCoast NPZ up for that. That’s his specialty. Pretty much. King of the post- storm- that-missed-me .03" stratiform drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 2 hours ago, mappy said: Another day, another line of broken cells that converge and go severe after they pass me. Lots of lightning though, power has gone out twice. I picked the right day to ride this one out in Towson. We got hammered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 3 major hits this week of severe. If anyone missed all 3 events I feel for ya man!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 Dodged in MBY the intense stuff again, but there's been a rolling thunderstorm for a couple of hours now and just when I thought things were winding down, I heard a long low rumble. I've been doing some work and haven't checked the radar or this site, but have the windows open, drinking a beer of course, and it's like the bygone era: a thunderstorm that eventually quits and just when you think the action is over for the night, there are signs there's more to come. But you don't know for sure because the umbilical cord of Internet real-time data is not there to verify it for you or not. And, in this past time, you're too lazy to go down and turn on the TV and the weather radar they used to broadcast on cable channel 98. So it's a surprise: that grumble or thunder, or a sudden flash of light or, if you're really lucky, a CG strike in the neighborhood, hitting one of the nearby TV transmission towers, whose sound mainlines right down the spinal cord and would upset the dogs (if I still had them, may they RIP.) Sometimes nights like this are best when you just shut out the real-time data and coverage, and do something else with the windows open, non-weather related, but all the while in the back of your mind you're waiting to hear (or see) whether the convection can keep on keeping on. Then there's an opening act, loud or subtle, a flash or a flicker, and you remember why weather is so damn invigorating, even if it's not extreme. And then, while you're typing an attempt to capture the moment, the feeling of a summer thunderstorm that won't quit, or a train of them following the boundary the first one put down, and then you hear the crickets, and realize 1) that the show is probably over for the evening and 2) that the summer has passed the peak of its ziggurat, and a little melancholy seeps in, and for both reasons: hearing the crickets and not hearing a storm. But then you wander over to SPC and realize that tomorrow is a marginal risk, and expectation springs anew. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 2/3 hits this week with more lighting than I've seen in a long time. What a week!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 14, 2021 Author Share Posted August 14, 2021 12z HRRR is lame for DC. Will see what the NAM nest shows in the next hour or so. The 0z FV3 hires was decent enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: 12z HRRR is lame for DC. Will see what the NAM nest shows in the next hour or so. The 0z FV3 hires was decent enough. The HRRR has been awful all week. Couldn’t even care less what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 14, 2021 Author Share Posted August 14, 2021 Just now, mattie g said: The HRRR has been awful all week. Couldn’t even care less what it shows. Yeah it hasn't been very good with this pulse stuff. Not sure that's even just it - the NAM nest has been off as well. I think it just has to do with how pulsey things have been. No way for even a mesoscale model to figure out exactly where the first storms will pop and then getting outflow right is even tougher. That said - I do think south of DC is where I'd rather be for storms today. The front is around - so if you're on the right side of it that'll help as well. DCAPE is substantially lower in most of the area today as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 17 hours ago, AdamHLG said: I picked the right day to ride this one out in Towson. We got hammered. Friends in New Freedom got hit pretty good from it too, lot of tree damage, couple reports of trees into homes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilentTalkie Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 Nasty storm with small hail and wind just now in Western Albemarle. Could tell it was going to be bad when watching it come down off mountains. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 29 minutes ago, SilentTalkie said: Nasty storm with small hail and wind just now in Western Albemarle. Could tell it was going to be bad when watching it come down off mountains. That’s awesome. Looks like tropical 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 15, 2021 Author Share Posted August 15, 2021 Either something changed with my data feed or they finally lit up the TDWRs on GR2AE (I use the IA State feed). But they had been greyed out for me until yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Either something changed with my data feed or they finally lit up the TDWRs on GR2AE (I use the IA State feed). But they had been greyed out for me until yesterday. Got a screenshot of what it looks like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Got a screenshot of what it looks like? Prior to the last day or so - KLWX was blue like that but all the TDWRs were grey and wouldn't return any data. Can confirm it's not due to a GR update as both machines were on 2.92 before and after it popped up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 Late Wednesday into Thursday could be interesting depending on track of Fred 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 4 hours ago, yoda said: Late Wednesday into Thursday could be interesting depending on track of Fred My questions are - how much of a defined center will remain - and whether it will pass too far to the west for any severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 4 hours ago, yoda said: Late Wednesday into Thursday could be interesting depending on track of Fred Yes. Was expecting Fred to be further west of where it is now. Could be a conditional tornado risk Wed into Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 NAM is solid for the Fred remnants. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: NAM is solid for the Fred remnants. I was just coming in to post the same thing. The NAM/NAM3 and extrapolated HRRR and some of the HiResWindows look very interesting for Wednesday. Hodographs look impressive, and this certainly gets our attention: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, high risk said: I was just coming in to post the same thing. The NAM/NAM3 and extrapolated HRRR and some of the HiResWindows look very interesting for Wednesday. Hodographs look impressive, and this certainly gets our attention: Certainly not expecting an Ivan-esque outbreak - but there seems to be some decent agreement now that the remnants will post an iso tor threat (as well as some isolated flooding risk as well). What a wet pattern lately! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Certainly not expecting an Ivan-esque outbreak - but there seems to be some decent agreement now that the remnants will post an iso tor threat (as well as some isolated flooding risk as well). What a wet pattern lately! Wednesday could be a sneaky overperforming event for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wednesday could be a sneaky overperforming event for us. No risk area on the D3 SPC outlook. So that means at this range we are absolutely in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: No risk area on the D3 SPC outlook. So that means at this range we are absolutely in business IMO, SPC is smart to not highlight at D3 for this area. A subtle shift of 50 miles in the track is a big deal for downstream impacts. For the next couple of days, I would argue it's worthwhile to look upstream at these items: 1.) Location of flooding and heavy rain versus the forecast placement. 2.) Location of severe weather, tornadic activity in particular, versus the forecast placement. 3.) Overall expanse of the warm sector and whether it's dirty or big breaks in the clouds. 4.) Speed of the system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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