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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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2 minutes ago, high risk said:

          It's probably just my fading memory, but I can't recall such an extremely active week like this with so little shear.

I feel like these shear-less days tend to yield one super isolated but huge cell that puts down a swath of 70-80mph winds but leaves the rest of us with nada. This certainly has been a widespread week of all hazards (except tornadoes). Monday was a heck of a deluge IMBY, and I think I've gotten at least some semblance of a storm on every day except yesterday. Today looks like it'll perform too. I guess that's what 95+ degree temps and soupy air can do for us! 

ML lapse rates haven't been super trashy like they usually are - so maybe that also contributed. 

Wayyyy too far out to speculate - but have to wonder if this week is the start of a very wet pattern that might have some tropical threats mixed in the next month or so. 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

I feel like these shear-less days tend to yield one super isolated but huge cell that puts down a swath of 70-80mph winds but leaves the rest of us with nada. This certainly has been a widespread week of all hazards (except tornadoes). Monday was a heck of a deluge IMBY, and I think I've gotten at least some semblance of a storm on every day except yesterday. Today looks like it'll perform too. I guess that's what 95+ degree temps and soupy air can do for us! 

ML lapse rates haven't been super trashy like they usually are - so maybe that also contributed. 

Wayyyy too far out to speculate - but have to wonder if this week is the start of a very wet pattern that might have some tropical threats mixed in the next month or so. 

             Tuesday and Wednesday each yielded a surprisingly high number of SVR reports in this area.    There were certainly a couple of particularly notable cells with higher-end swaths of damage, but the coverage of reports was still impressive.      But I agree that high CAPE and moderate DCAPE are more than compensating for very weak shear.

              I'd certainly be surprised if we didn't get at least one round of TC remnants up this way in the next 6-8 weeks.

 

   

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

             Tuesday and Wednesday each yielded a surprisingly high number of SVR reports in this area.    There were certainly a couple of particularly notable cells with higher-end swaths of damage, but the coverage of reports was still impressive.      But I agree that high CAPE and moderate DCAPE are more than compensating for very weak shear.

              I'd certainly be surprised if we didn't get at least one round of TC remnants up this way in the next 6-8 weeks.

 

   

Definitely feels like the kind of year when we get some sort of major moisture injection from a TC-remnant system. The pockets of super heavy rain have been in small/isolated pockets - but if we keep getting these pulse rainers - FFG could really come down if a big areawide rain event comes through sooner rather than later.

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Really nasty storm in Glenwood. Gusts 50 to 55. Small hail. Constant but not severe lightning. House was in the car wash for about ten minutes. Didn’t move through as much as explode over us. Was really worried it would sit over us for a long time from the way it looked on radar, but it moved along after about 15 minutes.

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Warning update for MoCo also holding the 70mph text


MDC027-031-132115-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0402.000000T0000Z-210813T2115Z/
Howard MD-Montgomery MD-
509 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HOWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

At 508 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Potomac, or
near Rockville, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

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4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

And there's LWX with the huge polygon again. Warning stretches from like Wheaton down to Manassas. 

Yeah I’m seeing lightning now across entire western horizon, including branches. Not often I’ve seen this active an electrical show from this vantages that spans the whole horizon. I wonder how that matches with LD display now.

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