Eskimo Joe Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 There we go: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: There we go: Well it’s over 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Given the amount of DCAPE and strong sunshine today, I'm surprise we aren't in a DY1 slight risk. There's another kicker working through the region this afternoon and it might yield similar results to yesterday. from your mouth to SPC's ears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 16 minutes ago, mappy said: from your mouth to SPC's ears It has that lots of lightning feel to it today. I have a feeling some cool lightning is in the works for later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, dailylurker said: It has that lots of lightning feel to it today. I have a feeling some cool lightning is in the works for later. IMO, thunderstorms thrive in hot/humid conditions, so wouldn't surprise me to see more lightning out of storms that pop up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 60% chance of a WW this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 60% chance of a WW this afternoon. I definitely expect one. Totally agree with SPC that the shear is completely lame, but it's clear that we have a shortwave approaching at the right time of day into an environment with good instability and downdraft CAPE. And the fact that yesterday overperformed in a fairly similar setup will definitely factor in to the decision to box us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 425 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 200 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2021 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VAC003-007-009-011-013-015-019-023-025-029-031-033-035-036-037- 041-043-045-047-049-053-057-059-061-063-065-067-069-075-079-083- 085-087-089-097-099-101-107-109-111-113-117-121-125-127-135-137- 139-141-143-145-147-149-153-157-159-161-163-165-171-177-179-187- 193-510-530-540-570-590-600-610-630-640-660-670-678-680-683-685- 690-730-750-760-770-775-790-820-840-120100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0425.210811T1800Z-210812T0100Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBEMARLE AMELIA AMHERST APPOMATTOX ARLINGTON AUGUSTA BEDFORD BOTETOURT BRUNSWICK BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL CAROLINE CARROLL CHARLES CITY CHARLOTTE CHESTERFIELD CLARKE CRAIG CULPEPER CUMBERLAND DINWIDDIE ESSEX FAIRFAX FAUQUIER FLOYD FLUVANNA FRANKLIN FREDERICK GOOCHLAND GREENE HALIFAX HANOVER HENRICO HENRY KING AND QUEEN KING GEORGE KING WILLIAM LOUDOUN LOUISA LUNENBURG MADISON MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY NELSON NEW KENT NOTTOWAY ORANGE PAGE PATRICK PITTSYLVANIA POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD PRINCE GEORGE PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK RICHMOND ROANOKE ROCKBRIDGE ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD WARREN WESTMORELAND VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDRIA BUENA VISTA CHARLOTTESVILLE COLONIAL HEIGHTS DANVILLE FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH FREDERICKSBURG GALAX HARRISONBURG HOPEWELL LEXINGTON LYNCHBURG MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK MARTINSVILLE PETERSBURG RADFORD RICHMOND ROANOKE SALEM STAUNTON WAYNESBORO WINCHESTER $$ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 some towering clouds going up, though mostly in PA. Lot of little cells firing up out west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Radar looks pretty good but there is a gap in the warning line hope it fills in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Front Royal cell is definitely the dominant one thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Looks like a big downburst could be coming with this one - BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 249 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Warren County in northwestern Virginia... Southeastern Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... Northeastern Rappahannock County in northwestern Virginia... Northwestern Fauquier County in northern Virginia... * Until 330 PM EDT. * At 249 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Hume, or 8 miles southeast of Front Royal, moving east at 5 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Now warned for 80mph and golf ball hail. Tops are exceeding 55kft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 As expected - storm motions aren't particularly fast. We'll see how this activity does once it comes out of the mountains. Likely that we'll see outflow racing out from these shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Complex heading for Boonsboro area is pulsing up now. Warned for 70mph now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Outflow evident on radar near Warrenton. Would expect everything behind that to be more of a heavy rain threat for now. Cells to watch now are up near Boonsboro, and then any new developing ones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Pretty much solid warnings from the M/D line down to Warrenton. Warning happy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Outflow evident on radar near Warrenton. Would expect everything behind that to be more of a heavy rain threat for now. Cells to watch now are up near Boonsboro, and then any new developing ones. We're primed here east of DC. Super hot and steamy. Just waiting on a tiny trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 31 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Now warned for 80mph and golf ball hail. Tops are exceeding 55kft. wonder if anyone got the EAS alert that's supposed to be issued for storms with winds 80 or above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 We've talked anecdotally about it in years past - but radar kind of looks like the longggg lines of continuous storms from the 90s and early 2000s. That kicker @Eskimo Joe - mentioned earlier today is definitely putting the work in thus far. We'll see what happens to the east...the HRRR kind of had a tendency to kill off storms as they approached the metros - but IMO it hasn't been great the past few days. Perhaps the pulsey nature is throwing guidance for a loop a bit with no organized trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: wonder if anyone got the EAS alert that's supposed to be issued for storms with winds 80 or above Probably not a ton of population out there. I went to a cabin in Sperryville a few years ago and barely could get one bar unless I was on top of the ridge. I think they've added a cell tower in recent years... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: We've talked anecdotally about it in years past - but radar kind of looks like the longggg lines of continuous storms from the 90s and early 2000s. That kicker @Eskimo Joe - mentioned earlier today is definitely putting the work in thus far. We'll see what happens to the east...the HRRR kind of had a tendency to kill off storms as they approached the metros - but IMO it hasn't been great the past few days. Perhaps the pulsey nature is throwing guidance for a loop a bit with no organized trigger. I think that the issue with the HRRR being dry today (and for the past couple of days) is that it's overmixing the boundary layer, and the dew points out ahead of the storms are too low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Not often you see solid warnings from M/D line now all the way down to Madison, VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, high risk said: I think that the issue with the HRRR being dry today (and for the past couple of days) is that it's overmixing the boundary layer, and the dew points out ahead of the storms are too low. Know you've mentioned this in past events too. Something is whacky with my hygrometer it seems - reading an 84 Td right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Latest radar interpretation: Cell heading for Culpeper is pretty nice looking. And the Boonsboro area cell still is packing a punch. Purcellville cell has a hail marker now - so that may be pulsing up. Everything between there and the Culpeper cell, though looks meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Pretty good example of outflow in VA - everything behind that arc of outflow between say Middleburg and just N of Culpeper has gotten very meh-worthy. But north and south of that are still cranking away with good cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Not often you see solid warnings from M/D line now all the way down to Madison, VA. man what a big difference in radar from when i last looked, was just little cells but now a broken line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 The TDWRs have some sort of boundary in an arc shape from near Laurel to the eastern side of the beltway and then down towards ADW. Is that the bay breeze? Movement seems a little off for the bay breeze, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDphotog Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 30 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Complex heading for Boonsboro area is pulsing up now. Warned for 70mph now. That one was pretty nasty coming through Williamsport. Lot of small/med branches down. Tons of cloud to ground lightning. Still seeing it as it heads East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Some big a$$ polygons today now from LWX. That placefile for GR that EJ sent a few weeks ago (maybe longer?) is spectacular. Love how conservative it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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