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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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1 hour ago, NeedaSnowday said:

Hey all…. Uhm…. Am down in the Outer Banks and WOW!! Winds are whipping and house was shaking like it did during hurricane last year!! Is calming down now!

I saw just south of the VA line there were 3 tornado warnings earlier. Was wondering how it was on the Outer Banks, thanks for sharing. Any waterspouts by chance?

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3 minutes ago, The Dude said:

It's getting into the area the earlier storms plowed through.  Thinking the atmosphere is pretty worked over there.

It's funny that it's kind of following the corridor where the earlier cluster mostly skipped around. I barely saw any rain from the earlier stuff. Looks like a new cell may be pulsing up on the front end of the dying stuff now. 

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It is always hard to compare, but I think this was the best storm in my yard in the 12 years I’ve lived here (caveat - I missed the derecho).  Big branches down next door and across the street.  Highest wind gust on my anemometer (probably was higher in the March wind event, but no power).  This one combined with the July 1st tornadic storm is a solid one-two punch this year.

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This is total hindsight, but a severe box covering northern VA, central MD, and southeast PA would have easily verified today.   I don't blame SPC for being bearish on the chances for organized severe here, given the lousy deep layer shear, but a good amount of downdraft CAPE seems to have led to an overachieving event.

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2 minutes ago, high risk said:

This is total hindsight, but a severe box covering northern VA, central MD, and southeast PA would have easily verified today.   I don't blame SPC for being bearish on the chances for organized severe here, given the lousy deep layer shear, but a good amount of downdraft CAPE seems to have led to an overachieving event.

If there's good DCAPE and a kicker we seem to jackpot here. It almost can compensate for the lack of shear and mid level lapse rates.

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22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Given the amount of DCAPE and strong sunshine today, I'm surprise we aren't in a DY1 slight risk. There's another kicker working through the region this afternoon and it might yield similar results to yesterday.

ML lapse rates aren't as trash as normal either. 

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Given the amount of DCAPE and strong sunshine today, I'm surprise we aren't in a DY1 slight risk. There's another kicker working through the region this afternoon and it might yield similar results to yesterday.

 

59 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

ML lapse rates aren't as trash as normal either. 

12z NAM isn't enthused on the ground, but yeah...there's plenty of CAPE to be had. HRRR has gotten a little more interested with each run this morning, even if not all in.

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