NorthArlington101 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Yeah, I flew out around 6pm that day. Must have just missed it. We had an actual tornado?Around Washington-Liberty, yeah it was. Touched down near the Chipotle off 29. Anyways, seems like you might’ve had a decent microburst near you. Just a guess from these photos, but Nottingham took a beating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Looking at the sounding here on the 3km NAM, that dry layer and the respectable low level lapse rates would seem to signal a damaging wind threat. DCAPE gets up over 900 for a time. Also some low level directional shear, thus a slight chance of a tornado. The most impressive parameter with this threat are the increasing wind speeds with height. The CAPE looks a tad skinny, but decent. My non-expert observations. Also predicting a fail for my yard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Wonder if on the 1300z SPC OTLK they nudge the ENH risk SW some to include a bit more of N VA into C VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: In OCMD this morning so I guess I’ll miss my house getting slabbed this evening Same. Might as well issue the warnings for eastern Howard County now….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 32 minutes ago, mappy said: didnt you say that would happen? go on vacation and we get severe weather? (i could be confusing you with someone else) Everyone says that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 The FV3, 3k NAM, RGEM and even the ICON are focusing much of the convection in extreme NE MD, N DE and SE PA with what looks to be the track of the MCV. Other storms fire to the south and southwest of that low, but more scattered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, high risk said: Same. Might as well issue the warnings for eastern Howard County now….. House will get slabbed, but I’ll still get <0.1” of rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: The FV3, 3k NAM, RGEM and even the ICON are focusing much of the convection in extreme NE MD, N DE and SE PA with what looks to be the track of the MCV. Other storms fire to the south and southwest of that low, but more scattered. MCS events have a tendency to be progged by short term guidance too far NE of where they occur. Last night was a perfect example of this. The 00z NAM had convection going over the UP of Michigan and Green Bay, yet the initiation and main body of the storm was well to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: MCS events have a tendency to be progged by short term guidance too far NE of where they occur. Last night was a perfect example of this. The 00z NAM had convection going over the UP of Michigan and Green Bay, yet the initiation and main body of the storm was well to the west. I’d feel better if any run of any CAM was showing something interesting for the DC area. Haven’t found one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 52 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'm in New Windsor today. I woke up to fog, but it's since burned off and we have nothing but blue overhead. I'm not worried about the low level stuff along I-95 today, it's the mid/high level leftover crapvection that's near Pittsburgh. If that can die off then we're golden. I'm in Hunt Valley today, its trying to burn off, but still pretty foggy. 23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Everyone says that Touché Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 In enhanced risk so failure is assured 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: In enhanced risk so failure is assured I already watered my garden lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Not getting my hopes up. Putting the models aside there’s a certain boots-on-the-ground experience factor. If you look back on the top 10 severe weather days over the past 25 years, you know, the ones you really remember as weenies, I wonder how many of those events occurred on the “super hype” days vs how many events occurred on the typical “chance of severe storm” generic days. And then you add the geographic factor that probably 25-30 % of us win on any given severe day, plus the “when in drought leave it out” mantra. Plus the fog. Plus the crapvection in Pittsburgh. Not that I won’t think about it this afternoon, but better to be “surprised” if the levels of forecasted severe actually come to fruition. I prefer the “wow it actually happened” feeling better than the “another bust” feeling. Same with winter. On the other hand, now that I posted this, we will probably get a tornado watch at 2 pm. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 keep the pessimism coming! we do well when we think we will fail 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 5% TOR almost always winds up with a watch. Actually seeing warning criteria in your yard, well might as well start looking for that five leaf clover! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 1300z Outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 The enhanced risk area shifted further north, the MCS rain shield does not look to be decaying much at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 DC pulled from ENH. Well, looks like we're going to be socked in with clouds after all despite my earlier optimism. Better luck next time I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 17 minutes ago, Stormfly said: 5% TOR almost always winds up with a watch. Actually seeing warning criteria in your yard, well might as well start looking for that five leaf clover! If storms can wait until after 5pm, that would be great. I hate traveling on 83 during a storm trying to get home. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 So ENH cancel storm cancel at 9:30am? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 I don’t know about you guys but my sinuses say something will happen or not happen today. We just don’t know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 We have broken skies here in Charles County and even less cloud coverage further east and south. Already 1000 to 1500 MLCAPE east of DC, so we aren't in terrible shape. But the MCS rain shield over Ohio looks to head straight for DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 18 minutes ago, H2O said: So ENH cancel storm cancel at 9:30am? sounds about right. then we can uncancel the cancel! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Not sure if it was mentioned, but CAMs did an abysmal job last night and this morning with the MCV over the Great Lakes region, everything developed farther south and west than progged. Obviously we have the usual limiting factors in this area, but best jet dynamics still appear to be near the Mason-Dixon Line despite the enhanced moving northward. Need to keep a close eye on that line today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: Not sure if it was mentioned, but CAMs did an abysmal job last night and this morning with the MCV over the Great Lakes region, everything developed farther south and west than progged. Obviously we have the usual limiting factors in this area, but best jet dynamics still appear to be near the Mason-Dixon Line despite the enhanced moving northward. Need to keep a close eye on that line today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: Not sure if it was mentioned, but CAMs did an abysmal job last night and this morning with the MCV over the Great Lakes region, everything developed farther south and west than progged. Obviously we have the usual limiting factors in this area, but best jet dynamics still appear to be near the Mason-Dixon Line despite the enhanced moving northward. Need to keep a close eye on that line today. Really would like to see this cloud deck over PA start breaking up. Each frame it looks more and more like early spring wedge season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Really would like to see this cloud deck over PA start breaking up. Each frame it looks more and more like early spring wedge season. Could say that about 90% of these severe weather setups around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: Could say that about 90% of these severe weather setups around here. Yea but it matters more than most today. We actually have dome decent shear and kicker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Our mature spruce line welcomes the cold air damming overlords. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 40 minutes ago, mappy said: sounds about right. then we can uncancel the cancel! I’m totally looking forward to storms for some, misses for others, EJ debbing, copy paste a MD for Cape May, NJ and all of this happening by 2pm 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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