SnowenOutThere Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 No way. Why does this keep happening I am getting fringed again. Am interested to see what happens when the two storm systems collide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Wow, one of the worst storms I’ve seen here. Power out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Wow, one of the worst storms I’ve seen here. Power out. Dumping and power flickering. Doesn’t compare to the tornadic one earlier this summer, but probably second best of the summer, unless I’m forgetting anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Dumping and power flickering. Doesn’t compare to the tornadic one earlier this summer, but probably second best of the summer, unless I’m forgetting anything. Generator blew out here on our street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Generator blew out here on our street. Right after I sent the message the power went out but luckily has returned, for the time being. Got way gustier than I expected for a few minutes. Still definitely #2, but last few minutes were intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Finally some rain,,, and enough to prompt the "Raining Cats and Dogs" message on our Vantage VUE... Haven't had that for several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 40 minutes ago, jacindc said: "So much lightning the street lights turned off." 49 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: No severe here IMBY but some nice rumbles of thunder. Hopefully an appetizer for tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 32 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Right after I sent the message the power went out but luckily has returned, for the time being. Got way gustier than I expected for a few minutes. Still definitely #2, but last few minutes were intense. Ours is still out. I might have been out of town for that other storm. Don’t remember it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Ours is still out. I might have been out of town for that other storm. Don’t remember it. Think you might’ve been… tornado day was rather memorable. July 1st, IIRC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Think you might’ve been… tornado day was rather memorable. July 1st, IIRC. Yeah, I flew out around 6pm that day. Must have just missed it. We had an actual tornado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Didn’t get much lightning or wind with the cell that stretched NNW-SSE through Burke, but it absolutely pissed down rain for about 10 minutes, with decent-enough rains leading into it. Pleasant surprise tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Enhanced threat now for northern portions of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Enhanced risk for N VA/DC/MD today... 5/15/30 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and a risk for a tornado, will be possible from the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday. ...Northeast through Middle Atlantic area... Upper pattern in this region will be characterized by a broad trough today. MCV/shortwave trough embedded within the synoptic trough will move from the lower Great Lakes to the Middle Atlantic. At the surface a warm front will move northward through the Middle Atlantic, while a cold front advances southeast, reaching PA and the central Appalachians by evening. Thunderstorms should be in progress at the start of the period in association with the MCV over the southern portion of the Great Lakes. Other storms may be ongoing in the warm-advection regime north of the warm front over a portion of the Middle Atlantic. Widespread multi-layer clouds may precede the warm front. However, the warm sector should become moderately unstable during the afternoon with 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE supported by the advection of richer low-level moisture and pockets of diabatic heating. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front in association with ascent attending the southeast-moving MCV as well as along the southeast-advancing cold front. This area will reside within belt of stronger mid-upper flow associated with the synoptic trough supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear. Therefore, some supercells may evolve along with line segments with bowing structures as activity develops southeast during the afternoon into the evening. Primary threat appears to be damaging wind and possibly some hail, though low-level hodographs will be sufficient for a few tornadoes, especially if sufficient instability can develop in vicinity of the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 So about the 00z NAM soundings across the region from 21z to 03z... 00z NAM sounding for 00z tonight at KIAD = Yes, I know the usual caveats... but you don't see those everyday around here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Some PDS TOR soundings on 00z NAM across the region FWIW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Zones include severe wording with damaging winds and large hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Meanwhile in Albemarle County last night 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 DY1 ENH...and it doesn't looks like *too* much cloudiness this morning. LFG!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 3 hours ago, yoda said: So about the 00z NAM soundings across the region from 21z to 03z... 00z NAM sounding for 00z tonight at KIAD = Yes, I know the usual caveats... but you don't see those everyday around here I know there's a lot of CAPE, but I honestly have no idea how to read what's in the rest of the soundings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 One thing to remembers, the CAMS yesterday were way off on the placement and severity of the line in Wisconsin. The activity developed further SW than progged so we'll have to watch how thing play out in OH, WV, and western PA around midday. Still, this is looking like a solid SLGT/ENH day. Good shear and a strong fropa in the middle of summer, not something you see every day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 This was the early morning disco from LWX about today FWIW NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest analysis depicts a weak stationary front straddled northwest to southeast across the area. A stronger front and low pressure is located over the Great Lakes, with the low heading east and the front progressing southeast. Aloft, a weak shortwave is passing to the east with a second stronger shortwave over the Great Lakes. This is all embedded within a dominant northwest flow as a longwave trough remains to our northeast, and a ridge sits over the central Plains. Showers early this morning associated with the departing shortwave should dissipate shortly. The clouds and increased moisture over the region have kept temps in the higher 60s to lower 70s. This relatively high starting point will give us a boost, but clouds moving in from the MCS to our northwest will start overspreading the area this morning. This MCS likely will greatly affect our severe weather threat today as the strong shortwave and cold front moves into the region. If the MCS impact is minimal, with cloud cover relatively thin and brief and minimal if any showers, then our odds of a significant severe weather outbreak will be quite high thanks to ample CAPE combined with the high shear moving overhead. However, if the MCS holds together more and we have extended cloud cover and more showers/weakening storms, the high CAPE component will be harder to come by, which could potentially significantly damper the severe weather potential. Will need to watch progress of the system closely. Right now, areas least likely to be affected by the morning MCS appear to be the Baltimore area and points north and east, where an enhanced risk of severe weather is now in place from the SPC. This risk tapers to slight and then marginal further south and west, where the MCS influence is likely to be more substantial. Highs likely reach the mid-upper 80s, perhaps with spotty 90s, with higher temps of course more likely to fuel stronger storms later today. Best timing for storms looks to be very late afternoon and evening across the metro, assuming the MCS doesn`t disrupt CAPE too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Don't see these from LWX too often... from last night... SWS for Albermarle County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 06z NAM sounding at BWI at 00z tonight is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: DY1 ENH...and it doesn't looks like *too* much cloudiness this morning. LFG!!! really? pretty cloudy/foggy up my way. we did get some early morning rain so that could be why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Check out the morning visible satellite loop on weather.cod.edu. You can see the low level flow is S - SW, while it's NW - N aloft. Going to be an interesting day for some, definitely would rather be from Baltimore SW into Fredericksburg/ Winchester for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 In OCMD this morning so I guess I’ll miss my house getting slabbed this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: In OCMD this morning so I guess I’ll miss my house getting slabbed this evening didnt you say that would happen? go on vacation and we get severe weather? (i could be confusing you with someone else) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, mappy said: really? pretty cloudy/foggy up my way. we did get some early morning rain so that could be why I'm in New Windsor today. I woke up to fog, but it's since burned off and we have nothing but blue overhead. I'm not worried about the low level stuff along I-95 today, it's the mid/high level leftover crapvection that's near Pittsburgh. If that can die off then we're golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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