yoda Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 LWX morning disco re severe .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Low pressure will track from the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada and northern New England. The warm associated with this low will pass through the area this morning and the cold front associated with the low will be fast on its heels, passing through during the afternoon and early evening. Showers are expected to develop quickly early this morning and spread from southwest to northeast in response to a strengthening low-level jet along with significant moisture advection and an upper-level jetmax. A few thunderstorms are possible as well, especially near the Allegheny Highland early this morning, and then east of the Blue Ridge Mountains between about 7 am and 11 am. These storms should be elevated, so the threat for severe weather is low during this time. There may be a break in the shower activity for a period behind the warm front, especially near and east of Interstate 81. A strengthening southwesterly flow ahead of the potent cold front along with some breaks of sunshine will likely be enough to destabilize the atmosphere, allowing any convection that develops to be rooted within the boundary layer. Therefore, more showers are expected this afternoon into this evening along and ahead of a strong cold front that will be moving through. Shear profiles both low-level and deep layer remain strong, and forcing along the boundary is strong as well. Therefore, this elevates the chances for storms to become strong to severe. There is still some uncertainty as to exactly how much warm air will make it in ahead of the cold front and also how far north and west. As of now, the most likely scenario is that a broken line of convection develops along and ahead of the cold front, strengthening around the I-81 corridor as it moves into a more unstable airmass and continuing to progress through the area from west to east with further strengthening possible as the airmass is likely to be more unstable the farther east you go. Given the very strong wind field aloft, damaging winds are the primary threat, but a backed surface flow may lead to an isolated tornado threat as well. The broken line of convection is most likely to pass through the Allegheny Highlands between 1 and 3 PM, the I-81 corridor to around the Blue Ridge Mountains between 3 and 5 PM, the metro areas between 5 and 7 PM, and it should clear southern MD by 9 PM. As always, timing can be tricky with these systems because the cold pool can dictate whether or not this line moves faster or slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Not really enthused about the severe weather prospects north of I-66 today. Hoping to see the first thunder of the year today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Not really enthused about the severe weather prospects north of I-66 today. Hoping to see the first thunder of the year today. Had a flash and a nice prolonged rumble about 30 mins ago. Rooting for some clearing later this AM for a boosted second round this PM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Warm frontal overrunning about to clear the area. No thunder here. Lets see if we can get the surface cooking now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 28, 2021 Author Share Posted March 28, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Warm frontal overrunning about to clear the area. No thunder here. Lets see if we can get the surface cooking now. I'm not enthused on Today. It could be a garden variety thunderstorm day. Like I've been saying - still super early for the meat and potatoes stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: I'm not enthused on Today. It could be a garden variety thunderstorm day. Like I've been saying - still super early for the meat and potatoes stuff. Yeah it looks like maybe some isolated straight line wind damage, and an outside chance of a weak tornado SE. A run of the mill gusty storm with some T&L would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 28, 2021 Author Share Posted March 28, 2021 Visible satellite does seem to show a some breaks in the clouds to the south and west in the mountains. I question whether that will actually make any progress into the metro area, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 28, 2021 Author Share Posted March 28, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Sun is popping out down here around Fredericksburg...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 3 hours ago, Kmlwx said: I'm not enthused on Today. It could be a garden variety thunderstorm day. Like I've been saying - still super early for the meat and potatoes stuff. Yeah, I'm wondering -- about 63 here now, humid out, still full overcast. Hopefully some of those breaks in the sat pic you just posted make it this way. Quick aside question -- finally purchased Radarscope on Friday. Toying with upgrading to the annual subscription for Pro Tier 1, if only for that dual screen display for some hyper-local tracking. I'm probably not enough of hobbyist to justify annual cost of Pro Tier 2. Anyone here do the single or double upgrade to PT1/PT2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Raining here in Tuckahoe. I’m skeptical anything severe happens here later, as others have stated. Pouring now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r3w Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 I still have a little bit of hope in my area in Southern MD, its brightened up a bit outside, 68/64F here currently...eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 28, 2021 Author Share Posted March 28, 2021 It looks like a fair amount of areas will see at least a few peaks of sun based on the visible satellite trends. How long those peaks last remains to be seen - but of course...the more sun the higher the chances of storms is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r3w Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Indeed, hard to say exactly where that sun is gonna end up. Here is the MCD, just went up a bit ago. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0300.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Been partly sunny here the past hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Temp has jumped to 73. Windy too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Back in town now, and while this is nowhere as good of a setup as it looked like it might be a couple of days ago, it's not dead. The instability is of course the big question, but with strong forcing on the front and pretty good shear, there will likely be a line of convection ahead of the front. (It is clearly getting organized now). If we get up near 70 over the next few hours, there is probably some wind damage potential. The better chances are certainly further south, but I'm not totally writing it off north of town. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 21 minutes ago, high risk said: Back in town now, and while this is nowhere as good of a setup as it looked like it might be a couple of days ago, it's not dead. The instability is of course the big question, but with strong forcing on the front and pretty good shear, there will likely be a line of convection ahead of the front. (It is clearly getting organized now). If we get up near 70 over the next few hours, there is probably some wind damage potential. The better chances are certainly further south, but I'm not totally writing it off north of town. As with @CAPE, currently 73 here and it's become fairly breezy. We had a few breaks of sun through the overcast over the past 1.5 hours, but temps haven't recovered any higher than low 70s. Some convection seems to be getting its act together to the west of us... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r3w Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 35mph gusts in the Calvert area. Nice and sunny out for the moment. Might have to plot out a good place close by to watch it if a watch is issued. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, r3w said: 35mph gusts in the Calvert area. Nice and sunny out for the moment. Might have to plot out a good place close by to watch it if a watch is issued. This will sound pretty selfish, but I replaced a very old SAME-equipped weather radio this past week with a newer unit, and I'm somewhat hoping we're issued some sort of watch this afternoon, if only to test its performance in a "real-world" situation. It did fine this past Wednesday during the regular weekly NWS test...but I'd like to know how loud we need to keep it for watches/warnings, to ensure it alerts us at night while we're sleeping (if necessary). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 28, 2021 Author Share Posted March 28, 2021 Looks like LWX is going with the huge polygons for warnings this PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Just got put under a STWarning over here. Mr. J is going to have to stop power washing the deck soon. There is a decent amount of sun with the temp at 64 and dew at 62. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Warning issued.... up to 67 with partly sunny skies. Very dark to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 73/64 Feels humid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 28, 2021 Author Share Posted March 28, 2021 We'll see how these storms do as they roll off the higher terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: We'll see how these storms do as they roll off the higher terrain. Yea am going to watch that. I am currently just on the southern edge of the warning by about 2 miles. Looks like the line is just getting to I-81 will see what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Some decent gusts and brief torrential rainfall with the line here. It’s moving through quickly. No thunder or lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 28, 2021 Author Share Posted March 28, 2021 I find it semi humorous that the strongest part of the line is in the northern parts of the area - farthest away from the ENH risk to the south and east. Rest of the line looks paltry for now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: I find it semi humorous that the strongest part of the line is in the northern parts of the area - farthest away from the ENH risk to the south and east. Rest of the line looks paltry for now. More sun to the south tho ahead of the line. That might help 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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