Eskimo Joe Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 SPC mesonalayis showing a 60 kt jet streak over Pittsburgh and we're seeing MLCAPRE starting to creep towards 1,500 j/kg. Intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 34 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Can't be mad at this map.... Key takeaway: Craven SigSvr Parameter The simple product of 100mb MLCAPE and 0-6km magnitude of the vector difference (m/s; often referred to as "deep layer shear") accounts for the compensation between instability and shear magnitude. Using a database of about 60,000 soundings, the majority of significant severe events (2+ inch hail, 65+ knot winds, F2+ tornadoes) occur when the product exceeds 20,000 m3/s3. The index is formulated as follows: C = (MLCAPE J kg-1) * (SHR6 m s-1) For example, a 0-6-km shear of 20 m s-1 (40 knots) and CAPE of 3000 J kg-1 results in a Craven SigSvr index of 60,000. Units are scaled to the nearest 1000 on the web plot. Reference: Craven, J. P., and H. E. Brooks, 2004: Baseline climatology of sounding derived parameters associated with deeep moist convection. Natl. Wea. Digest, 28, 13-24. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Def had a lot of cloud cover earlier, but full sun now 84/62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 24 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Could be a bit later given the timing even. Nighttime severe should make for a heck of a lightshow! I don't care about severe but a nighttime thunderstorm loaded with lightning would be fun. That's what I'm hoping for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Just now, BlizzardNole said: I don't care about severe but a nighttime thunderstorm loaded with lightning would be fun. That's what I'm hoping for. Same. Plus rain. An inch per day keeps the drought away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 18z HRRR might be a smidge earlier again - but it's tiny adjustments at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Possible TVS on the cell south of Pittsburgh. Some of the CAMS have that cluster spawning our nocturnal activity. That's the sector to watch, IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Watch out along I-81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 Severe T'storm Watch for western portions of the area. It seems to be less frequently as of the past few years for them to segment the area in events like this. Perhaps a more strongly worded watch for us later if the trends continue towards a decent severe event? The probs on the watches so far have bene pretty low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 18z NAM Nest shows that people in the DC-Baltimore corridor will make a series of "next", "DC split", and "radar looks awful" posts around 8pm but will be much happier 2 hours later. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 One thing I'm not sure I like seeing so close to the metro areas - is GAI's dewpoint has dropped to 57. Even CGS is down to 59. The immediate DC stations like DCA, ADW etc are still in the 60s, though. My (potentially not the greatest) sensor here in Colesville has gone from the mid-upper 60s down to 61.7 for the dew. We'll ideally need to advect some of the higher dewpoint air back in for my liking. I don't think we are going to get it done with 50s dews. That potentially could be why some of the CAM runs have shown the activity really getting going only once east of I-95. Could be a little razor thin margin for those in places like MoCo and western half of Howard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Good point about the dews. I just spent over an hour sitting out on the deck and it is very comfortable for mid 80s. It just doesn't "feel" thunderstormy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 This map tells a pretty interesting story. You can tell where the lower dewpoint air has gotten to. Looks like right around I-95 may be the dividing line. Will have to hope I'm on the right side of that line to see some action. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: This map tells a pretty interesting story. You can tell where the lower dewpoint air has gotten to. Looks like right around I-95 may be the dividing line. Will have to hope I'm on the right side of that line to see some action. good analysis. Several CAMs now show things coming together as the system approaches the I-95 corridor, so that scenario is plausible. I think that dews will rebound a bit this evening as mixing wanes, and the HRRR shows this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 30 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: One thing I'm not sure I like seeing so close to the metro areas - is GAI's dewpoint has dropped to 57. Even CGS is down to 59. The immediate DC stations like DCA, ADW etc are still in the 60s, though. My (potentially not the greatest) sensor here in Colesville has gone from the mid-upper 60s down to 61.7 for the dew. We'll ideally need to advect some of the higher dewpoint air back in for my liking. I don't think we are going to get it done with 50s dews. That potentially could be why some of the CAM runs have shown the activity really getting going only once east of I-95. Could be a little razor thin margin for those in places like MoCo and western half of Howard. I see a DP on my Weather station of 66 now.. That feels a bit high as it feels pretty nice outside. Will have to see. I feel another meso is coming soon for the MD/NoVa area. BTW - I know feelings mean nothing when it comes to weather.. just seems like that is the next area that could be impacted in some way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, high risk said: good analysis. Several CAMs now show things coming together as the system approaches the I-95 corridor, so that scenario is plausible. I think that dews will rebound a bit this evening as mixing wanes, and the HRRR shows this. Yeah - it seemed like the HRRR and some of the other CAMs wanted to push a little tongue of instability and better moisture up right to around DC proper - or even a bit north. Seems like where that gets to or sets up will determine. I still overall like where I am in eastern MoCo, but if I was in Poolesville or even Gaithersburg, I'm not sure I'd feel super warm and fuzzy about a higher severe threat tonight. Meanwhile, if I was in Annapolis I'd feel really nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Sounds like chances are better east of the bay for legit severe later tonight? Asking for a friend.. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 1 minute ago, alexderiemer said: Sounds like chances are better east of the bay for legit severe later tonight? Asking for a friend.. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk East of I-95 is probably a better statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Gonna get our watch shortly: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 My dewpoint has come back up to around 65, and GAI has recovered to 63. My mini-meltdown earlier is over. I'm feeling decent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: East of I-95 is probably a better statement. For once. Being effing east of I-95 (by a few miles) is a potential advantage... Currently 84/66. Took doggo for the 4-mile walk an hour ago, and it was damn humid. Aaaaaand, STW 273 just issued, effective until 06z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 47 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: My dewpoint has come back up to around 65, and GAI has recovered to 63. My mini-meltdown earlier is over. I'm feeling decent. Dewpoint at my personal wx station back up to 63. Wind has shifted to SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 79/69 here. Heavy rain and frequent lightning would be cool. Severe wind and hail can go elsewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 Next hour or two should be interesting to watch on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Keeping an eye on the clouds (and the radar) to the northwest from my seat at Nats Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2021 Author Share Posted June 15, 2021 The Latest HRRR is seemingly a bit more scattered with the sim reflectivity. We're probably in chips fall mode now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: The Latest HRRR is seemingly a bit more scattered with the sim reflectivity. We're probably in chips fall mode now. Already have the initiation around Warrenton that was advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Is that a Bay breeze front right along 95 in MD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Is that a Bay breeze front right along 95 in MD? Looks to be. Frederick Cell is starting to interact with a subtle boundary along Rt. 26. Might shoot up in the next couple of frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Is that a Bay breeze front right along 95 in MD? Good eye. Really shows up well on TBWI. The BWI wind flipped east and DP shot up around 7pm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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