yoda Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 Severe Thunderstorm Warning WVC023-027-031-057-131630- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0116.210613T1548Z-210613T1630Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1148 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Grant County in eastern West Virginia... Southwestern Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... Northwestern Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... Southwestern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 1230 PM EDT. * At 1147 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Elk Garden, or 8 miles southwest of Keyser, moving southeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Keyser, Elk Garden, Kitzmiller, Burlington, Russelldale, Old Fields, Sulphur City, Purgitsville, Emoryville, Hartmansville, New Creek, Martin, Antioch, Warnocks, Mcneill, Williamsport, Mount Pisgah, Junction and Ridgeville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 And just before that lol https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0944.html STWatch probably coming soon for i81 corridor in next hour or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 Oh wow. I'm actually a little surprised that the line hasn't fallen apart yet as they cross over the Blue Ridge. I saw the meso as well. Well see what transpires over the next few hours... not that I'm expecting hurricane-force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, George BM said: Oh wow. I'm actually a little surprised that the line hasn't fallen apart yet as they cross over the Blue Ridge. I saw the meso as well. Well see what transpires over the next few hours... not that I'm expecting hurricane-force winds. Latest 2 frames looks like it is weakening some now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 Incoming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 22 minutes ago, yoda said: And just before that lol https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0944.html STWatch probably coming soon for i81 corridor in next hour or 2 Or now lol... but it doesn't have any LWX counties in it https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0264.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1251 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Garrett County in western Maryland... Northwestern Grant County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 130 PM EDT. * At 1251 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Thomas, moving southeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Bayard, Wilson, Wilsonia and Beechwood. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 3 hours ago, Kmlwx said: CIPS for the 36hr mark (on the 12z run coming out now) is fairly bullish. Jun 2, 1998 is on the analogs lol I don't remember that event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 13, 2021 Author Share Posted June 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, yoda said: I don't remember that event Frostburg had an F4 that day apparently. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 Western areas had significant severe weather and F4 in Frostburg and several F3's in Pennsylvania. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 13, 2021 Author Share Posted June 13, 2021 18z NAM nest is lameeee for tomorrow. The 18z long range HRRR was pretty wild for Central Maryland tomorrow night. The timing isn't the best (overnight hours into Tuesday). If we can speed things up a bit maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 If we can speed things up tomorrow by just an hour or two and get a bit more clearing, someone could get smacked bigly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 6 hours ago, yoda said: I don't remember that event https://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_19980602#:~:text=Tuesday%2C June 2%2C began with,severe weather for the area.&text=Around 8%3A00 pm%2C one,county 911 center in Cumberland. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If we can speed things up tomorrow by just an hour or two and get a bit more clearing, someone could get smacked bigly. Well if can can speed things up anyway. Tomorrow doesn't look to be plagued by clouds looking at CAM soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 10 hours ago, Kmlwx said: CIPS for the 36hr mark (on the 12z run coming out now) is fairly bullish. Jun 2, 1998 is on the analogs lol I remember that event well. It was just a couple of days after the historic May 31, 1998 northeast tornado outbreak (first ever high risk in that area), and another strong system came in on its heels. Moisture had been shunted south by the cold front on the night of the 31st, and there was a question of how quickly it would return here. SPC bought into the idea, issuing a MDT risk, but LWX wasn't buying it. As a recall, their discussions were very bearish, and we had only a 30 PoP in the local forecast. Dew points started the day quite low but ended up rebounding very well. Supercells erupted locally in the early evening. During my drive home, I could see a wall cloud over DC (cell phone cameras weren't a thing then), and I then got golf ball hail in northern PG County - the only time I've ever experienced severe hail in 25 years of living in the DC area. The big events were with the tornadic supercells to our northwest - there were early evening tornadoes very close to Pittsburgh and Buffalo among others in PA and WV, and the cells produced several late evening tornadoes in MD including the after-dark F4 in Frostburg. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 37 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If we can speed things up tomorrow by just an hour or two and get a bit more clearing, someone could get smacked bigly. I'm not sure that's a big ask either - things do tend to come through a bit quicker than forecast on our severe events. Not totally buying into tomorrow - many of the CAMs are pretty lackluster...but I'm intrigued at least. IF things can line up I could see somebody getting a legit report out of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Right now, I'm not optimistic about SVR in the local area tomorrow, as the timing just doesn't look good. There are a few CAMs that break out a cell or two well out ahead of things during the afternoon, and any such cell could be SVR, but coverage will likely be sparse and perhaps non-existent. I'm on board with a sharp increase in convection here after dark, and we'll probably have a sweet lightning show. I'm just not seeing good sfc-based instability to take advantage of the stronger shear. Maybe it will find a way to get it done, but I'm so far not seeing any guidance keep surface temperatures from falling fairly quickly after sunset. Edit: two possible pieces of hope: 1) NAM nest has some convection in the early morning hours which could potentially leave an outflow boundary sitting around and lead to earlier initiation 2) HiResW FV3 has an earlier arrival of storms tomorrow evening, but it is somewhat of an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 And FWIW - the long range 0z HRRR is still bullish - bringing two decent UH tracks over the area tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 NAM nest has the line arriving in the midnight timeframe tomorrow night. That's pretty poor timing. BUT - as I said above, we do tend to get things a bit earlier/faster than expected. Nonetheless, midnight is a pretty late window. Even an hour or two earlier might not be enough to get things done. If the timing on this was like 4-6 hours earlier, with the shear progged things would be really interesting. We'll see what the early morning runs show - and 12z will be useful as well...heck - with that timing even the 18z suite tomorrow will be useful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: NAM nest has the line arriving in the midnight timeframe tomorrow night. That's pretty poor timing. BUT - as I said above, we do tend to get things a bit earlier/faster than expected. Nonetheless, midnight is a pretty late window. Even an hour or two earlier might not be enough to get things done. If the timing on this was like 4-6 hours earlier, with the shear progged things would be really interesting. We'll see what the early morning runs show - and 12z will be useful as well...heck - with that timing even the 18z suite tomorrow will be useful Hard to ignore that big UH track that the 00z HRRR showed, as you noted. I do think that the NAM nest is (as always) too slow; I'm still skeptical about whether even late-evening cells tomorrow can remain sfc-based, but I'll readily acknowledge that we have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 SLGT risk for today on new Day 1... 0/5/15... disco sounds intriguing ...Mid-Atlantic/Upper Ohio Valley/Carolinas... An upper-level trough will move southeastward across the Great Lakes region today as a cold front advances southeastward into the central Appalachian Mountains. Ahead of the front, a surface low will move eastward into the Mid Atlantic as a corridor of maximized low-level moisture takes shape across the Atlantic Coastal Plain. Surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F, which will result in the development of moderate instability during the afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that convection will first initiate to the northeast of the low during the morning near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Convective coverage should gradually expand along and ahead of the front from western Pennsylvania into central New York. This convection is forecast to develop into a cluster of thunderstorms, moving southeastward across southeast New York and north-central Pennsylvania during the late afternoon and early evening. The development of a quasi-linear convective system will be possible as this convection moves southeast into parts of the Mid-Atlantic, as is suggested by many of the new CAM solutions. RAP forecast soundings at 03Z along the path of the projected QLCS near Philadelphia have moderate instability, steep low to mid-level lapse rates and relatively strong deep-layer shear. MLCAPE is forecast to peak near 2000 J/Kg with 0-6 km shear around 50 kt. This will likely be favorable for severe storms along the leading edge of the QLCS. Supercells and organized multicell line segments will be possible from late afternoon to the mid evening as the QLCS moves across the Mid-Atlantic. Damaging wind gusts and hail be the primary threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Double hmmm... evening AFD update from LWX A potent upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will swing through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Although uncertainty persists, there is some growing concern for a severe weather threat focused during the evening hours Monday. Most guidance projects instability /increasing/ during the evening (1500-2000+ J/kg MLCAPE per latest HREF/SREF progs) on the nose of a low-level theta-e ridge/moisture axis. Most guidance also develops a meso/weak surface low overhead along the approaching cold front as a strengthening mid/upper-level jet buckles in response to an approaching shortwave. The combination of ascent and instability along with deep layer shear increasing to near 50 kt poses the threat for an organized line of thunderstorms. Should such a line develop and become organized just after peak heating over southwestern PA, the environment would support a potentially widespread damaging wind event as it progresses rapidly eastward across Maryland and northern Virginia through the I-95 corridor and eventually across the Chesapeake Bay. The timing after dark and modest low- level flow, as well as the orientation of any line or cluster that forms and leftover cloud debris tempering low-level stability are factors which introduce uncertainty into the forecast, but this scenario bears a close watch over the next 24 hours. In any case, it appears that the best potential for any severe activity may focus mainly north of I-66/US-50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Well... morning AFD was short and sweet about today's threat lol... also mentioned Saturday as the next day to watch for severe A potent upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will swing through the region tonight into Tuesday. A concern for severe thunderstorms is present across much of central and northeast Maryland, the metro areas of Baltimore and Washington D.C., eastern West Virginia Panhandle and northeast Virginia. SPC has these areas in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms through tonight. 1500- 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE on the nose of a low-level theta-e ridge/moisture axis are reasonably good values to support severe thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 06z NAM soundings again suggest fun at 00z and 03z tonight across the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 06z NAMNEST runs a UD Helicity swath right through/just north of DC 04z to 06z time period. Sim radar backs that up with a very intense line blowing through DC metro up the i95 corridor at same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 softball starts tonight, and i actually wanna play. lets hold off storms until after 8pm kthx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 1 hour ago, yoda said: 06z NAMNEST runs a UD Helicity swath right through/just north of DC 04z to 06z time period. Sim radar backs that up with a very intense line blowing through DC metro up the i95 corridor at same time Nice summary here from MH AFD : The best chance for severe weather will come this evening into the overnight period, as upstream convection developing in the vicinity of the surface cold front congeals and progresses towards our area. The latest CAMS largely depict one or more linear convective features moving towards the area overnight and this evolution seems reasonable given the strong mid-lvl flow and associated shear (500mb winds, and 0-6km shear will be in the 90-95th percentile for mid June) which should help support convective organization and maintenance. Although we may see a shallow nocturnal surface inversion form, reasonably steep lapse rates above this shallow layer should support wind gusts reaching the surface in any well- organized convection. SPC highlights this potential for damaging winds by placing the majority of our area in a slight risk for severe weather today (mostly for the evening-overnight period). Given the fast propagation of the system, convective mode, and strong flow aloft. damaging winds look to be the primary threat although small hail will also be possible. The tornado threat will be limited by the weak low-lvl wind fields (the wind field is very "mid-lvl heavy" in this event). Heavy rain is certainly a concern with any stronger convection with some signal for 1-2+ inch an hour rates, however suspect that the quick system motion will make the hydro threat secondary to the wind threat. The main forecast uncertainties are both the timing of the latter round of convection, and also its spatial coverage. For example, the latest CAMS have a spread of nearly 4 hours in timing the QLCS passage which is not particularly surprising given that the quick system motion, combined with the potential for convectively-driven propagation effects related to cold pools are a recipe for timing discrepancies. Additionally the timing situation is further complicated by the fact that several CAMS depict separate northern and southern linear segments developing, while other CAMS show only a more consolidated southern segment impacting our area. Generally suspect that the most likely period for a potential QLCS would be 02- 08Z with the best chance of severe winds being roughly TTN southward, however if the northern segment is able to get going the risk could both extend further northward and also begin earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 HREF is pretty bullish for everyone north of I-66 and east of I-81 today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: HREF is pretty bullish for everyone north of I-66 and east of I-81 today. You got one foot in on this one? Or are you going for wedges in MoCo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now