Eskimo Joe Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, Scuddz said: Everything south of I-70 looks to be at least 80 by now. I don't suspect we'll have much problem with bouyancy. HRRR has liked that I-70 line for several runs now so maybe a thermal boundary setting up there that we'll see some additional focus along NAM twins putting a decent UHI track in the Frederick/Carroll county tornado zone. EDIT: HRRR giving some UHI love to Frederick / Carroll / Howard / Baltimore counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 The combination of instability and shear seems to be sufficient for a severe box here this afternoon, with the best focus for the those along and north of I-66 in VA and Rt 50 in MD. As noted by EJ, there is certainly a possibility of a few isolated supercell structures, as indicated by the UH tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 The image below shows how long many hours it takes for a watch box to verify after it's issued. Note the clear correlation between watch probability in the antecedent MCD and number of watch boxes that verify within 2.5 hours of issuance. FWIW, the meso I posted above is 60%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 I just need rain before 530. thanks. lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, mappy said: I just need rain before 530. thanks. lol anytime before 4:30 here. but specifically 4:30-5:15 lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 Latest SPC meso analysis has MLCAPE up to 1,000 j/kg through DC and across US 50. A bit better than I thought it would be when I woke up this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 13 minutes ago, mappy said: I just need rain before 530. thanks. lol 3 minutes ago, H2O said: anytime before 4:30 here. but specifically 4:30-5:15 lol Feel for you guys. I remember wishing these things, when the sports practices/games magically aligned with severe/wet/icy wx over the years. It was especially nice when I occasionally assistant coached...and *I* got to make the cancellation calls (and make them I did). Just finished half the lawn...86 IMBY, and kinda soupy w/ DP of 69. Vacillating between full sun and filtered sun through high clouds. Won't be a bit surprised to hear the wx radio squawk within the next 1-2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 Couple of cells trying to fire in Loudoun and Montgomery counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: Feel for you guys. I remember wishing these things, when the sports practices/games magically aligned with severe/wet/icy wx over the years. It was especially nice when I occasionally assistant coached...and *I* got to make the cancellation calls (and make them I did). Just finished half the lawn...86 IMBY, and kinda soupy w/ DP of 69. Vacillating between full sun and filtered sun through high clouds. Won't be a bit surprised to hear the wx radio squawk within the next 1-2 hours. Swim practice for me so all it takes is distant thunder. Lifeguards love looking at radar apps and listening for rumbles so they can be lazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, H2O said: Swim practice for me so all it takes is distant thunder. Lifeguards love looking at radar apps and listening for rumbles so they can be lazy. I have a water job, but when it rains, I have to find ways to teach and entertain younger people. It’s soooooo fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 severe thunderstorm watch just came through to my phone for our area (I'm in Gaithersburg) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 245 PM EDT THU JUN 3 2021 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VAC003-013-033-043-047-057-059-061-065-079-099-107-109-113-125- 137-139-153-157-177-179-187-193-510-540-600-610-630-683-685- 040100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0234.210603T1845Z-210604T0100Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBEMARLE ARLINGTON CAROLINE CLARKE CULPEPER ESSEX FAIRFAX FAUQUIER FLUVANNA GREENE KING GEORGE LOUDOUN LOUISA MADISON NELSON ORANGE PAGE PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD WARREN WESTMORELAND VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDRIA CHARLOTTESVILLE FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH FREDERICKSBURG MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon initially across southeast Pennsylvania into Maryland/Virginia Blue Ridge vicinity. A relatively moist/unstable environment along with moderately strong southwesterly deep-layer winds will support sustained multicells and potentially some supercells. Thunderstorm-related wind damage is the most probable risk, but some hail and a low tornado risk will exist as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 Seems like something is trying to form. On visible it almost looks like a hook echo is trying to form. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 SW Loudoun Storm looks like it may be rotating a little. Not tight.. but interesting. The other storm in Northern Loudoun into Maryland is now severe. ---------------------- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 314 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland... South central Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 400 PM EDT. * At 314 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Point Of Rocks, or near Poolesville, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Germantown, Boyds, Clarksburg, Adamstown, Monrovia, Barnesville, Dickerson, Beallsville, Tuscarora, Lucketts and Park Mills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Seems like something is trying to form. On visible it almost looks like a hook echo is trying to form. Thought it looked a bit interesting as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 Cell over Winchester looking a bit scary 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 Winchester cell is the one to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 Radarscope picked up on there being a possible TVS out near Winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 Guessing the DC folks are waiting for the line forming west of Charlottesville unless something happens to pop in front of it. Got about 30 minutes of sun here, hoping for the best. If everyone is sharing when they want the lifeguards to blow their whistles... I’d like them to call it around 6:00! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 28 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Seems like something is trying to form. On visible it almost looks like a hook echo is trying to form. Good eye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Guessing the DC folks are waiting for the line forming west of Charlottesville unless something happens to pop in front of it. Got about 30 minutes of sun here, hoping for the best. If everyone is sharing when they want the lifeguards to blow their whistles... I’d like them to call it around 6:00! It could also be that new storms fire on the outflow boundary that is visible on radar moving south away from the current storms. That's the general idea that the HRRR is showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2021 Author Share Posted June 3, 2021 It's muggy out there - gross! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 What is about to happen just north of Loudoun? Interesting look as these two storms collide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 that warned portion def touched off a massive blossom of precip out ahead of it. was a small little line and now its a multi-county red/orange slow moving deluge. right on the northern edge of it, so hoping it comes north just a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2021 Author Share Posted June 3, 2021 Radar definitely has the "training" look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 thunder! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 Looked a little bow-like on radar just west of Loudoun All Western Loudoun now in a Severe Warning now. EDIT: The bow-like look collapsed after this frame.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Looks a little bow-like on radar just west of Loudoun All Western Loudoun now in a Severe Warning now. 1.75" hail reported with that cell/line approaching Purcellville 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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