yoda Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 2/5/15 on 1730 SPC update... 5% hail is new. Also moved the SLGT risk line west of the i81 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 I took a deeper look at the NAM twins for tomorrow. They clear out Virginia south of I-66 and up into northern Carroll / Baltimore counties which causes some better surface instability. No surprise that's where the better sim radar returns are progged for tomorrow. Hopefully it's wrong and we all get a repeat of last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over a portion of the Middle Atlantic Thursday with locally strong to damaging gusts the primary threat. Other strong to severe storms with locally strong to damaging wind gusts will be possible over a portion of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys as well as eastern Oregon. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move from portions of the Mid-South into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. A weak frontal boundary will push through the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. Ahead of the boundary, moisture return is expected to continue through the day into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. In the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will impact the region by late afternoon into the evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Widely-scattered to scattered convection is expected to develop both ahead of the weak boundary and within areas of pre-frontal confluence from northern Virginia into southeastern New York. There remain uncertainties as to where the greatest boundary layer destabilization will occur given cloud cover within the warm conveyor belt as well as warm advection precipitation in North Carolina/southern Virginia. Forecast soundings indicate a greater potential for cloud breaks from northern Virginia into southeastern New York. This area will also see a modest increase in 850 mb flow by afternoon/evening which will increase the threat for damaging gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado. Father north into eastern New York/Vermont, there is less certainty on the degree of destabilization, but relatively strong mid-level forcing should promote scattered storms with some attendant threat for wind damage. Mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, but where greater buoyancy develops isolated large hail will be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 52 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like Friday is our day. SPC has us in their 'meh' category so maybe this is our annual surprise event? Could be changed in tonight's new Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 Afternoon AFD has no mention of anything for Friday at all... but interesting tidbit about tonight into early tomorrow in there... @high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe Quote Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 255 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain offshore through this weekend and into early next week. An upper level trough will reside to our west through Thursday, before progressing off to our east by later Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... I continue to remain doubtful about convective potential this afternoon after looking at recent 1749Z NUCAPS soundings across the fcst area. Soundings still show a strong capping inversion with substantial dry air between 850-500 mb. However, things are expected to change rapidly this evening as moisture and instability surge northward with an advancing warm front. Expecting nmrs showers and possible thunderstorms to develop this evening and move northeast overnight before exiting to the east after daybreak Thu. While SPC does not have area under any risk of severe wx, shear will be increasing tonight, and as we saw during the May 3rd Ranson WV tornado, isolated tornadoes can occur when sfc features like a warm front move through an area. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Low and high dense overcast after early morning showers especially east of the Blue Ridge puts some doubt about how much destabilization can occur Thu afternoon. It does appear that for areas west of the Blue Ridge, any cloud cover should be thin enough to allow substantial breaks to develop and for air mass to destabilize rapidly. Anticipating that storms will develop early in the afternoon east of the Appalachians and move generally ENE with a risk of damaging winds given strengthening low-mid level flow and moderate instability (i.e ML CAPE around 1000 J/kg). While storms should tend to move at a relatively fast pace, the mid-level flow will become nearly parallel to the sfc flow and likely result in some training of storms which may pose a risk of flash flooding given storms should be highly efficient rainfall producing (i.e. high PWATs and high 1000-500 mb RHs). Anticipating a convective type watch for much if not the entire area tomorrow afternoon. Convection should begin to wind down mid evening, but may linger well into the night across southern MD. Conditions improve somewhat Fri as upper trough shifts east and light NW flow dry things out a bit. Drying conditions expected Fri night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 4 hours ago, Kmlwx said: The UH tracks EJ was talking about are focused down in the favored area for TORs. One of the area's mini tornado alleys. We're all getting slabbed on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: We're all gerting slabbed on Friday. EF6 here we come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: EF6 here we come Pfft, EF-8 or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Pfft, EF-8 or bust. Thought I read somewhere that technically the Fujita scale went from 0-12 like the Beaufort scale? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 Y’all are still too low. It will be an EF-5 that will cause a mesovortex which will form a tropical depression and we CAT5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 11 minutes ago, H2O said: Y’all are still too low. It will be an EF-5 that will cause a mesovortex which will form a tropical depression and we CAT5 Only CAT5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 Sterling seems pretty bullish about tomorrow. Curious as to what they are seeing to make them so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 2, 2021 Author Share Posted June 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Sterling seems pretty bullish about tomorrow. Curious as to what they are seeing to make them so. I seem to remember a few sporadic severe days in our area over the years that had them really using ominous language for a rather "standard" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2021 Author Share Posted June 3, 2021 I was just playing around with the SPC Severe Event Archive. Something I did not realize is that if you put in MD as the selected state. The September 24th 2001 event (College Park TOR) is the event immediately before April 28th 2002 in the archive. Not terribly impressive since September is a fair timeframe for our last severe event of the season, and April for the first. But to have two such memorable events right next to each other in the archive stood out to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 6 hours ago, yoda said: Afternoon AFD has no mention of anything for Friday at all... but interesting tidbit about tonight into early tomorrow in there... @high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe Yeah, shear will be increasing later tonight, but there just isn't any instability to get a decent updraft. Even west of the Blue Ridge where "instability will be surging north", sfc-based CAPE values by early morning will be only a couple hundred J/kg at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Sterling seems pretty bullish about tomorrow. Curious as to what they are seeing to make them so. I mean, it's not to going to be a day that we all talk about for years, but in a very tame severe weather season, it has the potential to be one of the better days so far. Looks like sfc-based CAPE in the 1500 range with modest shear, and if you throw out the anemic NAM nest solutions, most CAMs do bring storms into the area later tomorrow afternoon into an environment that will support some wind reports and maybe an isolated brief TOR. For now, I'm less excited about Friday due to downsloping, but the inverted-V soundings do support wind potential if storms can organize. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 Today's SPC morning outlook disco Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Jun 03 2021 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, mainly this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts are expected to be the primary threat, though isolated hail and a tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper trough extending from the Great Lakes into the lower MS Valley this morning is forecast to move slowly eastward through the period, as an upper ridge amplifies over the Great Basin vicinity. A warm front will move northward through portions of New England during the day, while a weak surface trough will move eastward from the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. ...Mid Atlantic into Western New England... Scattered clusters of convection are expected through the day along and east of the weak surface trough moving out of the Ohio Valley, within a plume of moist southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough. The area most likely to see some diurnal heating and at least modest destabilization prior to the onset of convection is the Mid Atlantic into portions of western New England. In this area, MLCAPE potentially exceeding 1000 J/kg in conjunction with effective shear of 35-45 kt will favor organized convection by mid afternoon. Locally damaging wind is expected to be the primary hazard, given the anticipated cluster mode, but some hail cannot be ruled out despite generally weak midlevel lapse rates. If any supercells (either discrete or cluster-embedded) can be sustained, low-level flow/shear will also be sufficient to support a tornado or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 HRRR with the Montgomery County jackpot today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2021 Author Share Posted June 3, 2021 18 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: HRRR with the Montgomery County jackpot today. Best part about the HRRR is if you don't like the output you just have to wait another hour! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Best part about the HRRR is if you don't like the output you just have to wait another hour! Its like weather Keno 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: HRRR with the Montgomery County jackpot today. Yeah, well its no match for the RGEM Fairfax county jackpot tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 NAMNEST still really likes tomorrow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 flash flood watch out for northern counties. please rain! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 Destabilization has commenced in Rockville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 77/69 Sun & clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 2 hours ago, mappy said: flash flood watch out for northern counties. please rain! Drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 The last couple of frames of the visible satellite leaves some room for optimism for those of us in the slight risk area. The 12z RAOB from Sterling indicated a convective temp of 79° and we're starting to see a few 80°+ values pop up. If we can get into the lows 80s then perhaps things can work out better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: The last couple of frames of the visible satellite leaves some room for optimism for those of us in the slight risk area. The 12z RAOB from Sterling indicated a convective temp of 79° and we're starting to see a few 80°+ values pop up. If we can get into the lows 80s then perhaps things can work out better for us. IAD is currently at 82/67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 HRRR is more encouraging for us this afternoon. Would be a standard slight risk day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The last couple of frames of the visible satellite leaves some room for optimism for those of us in the slight risk area. The 12z RAOB from Sterling indicated a convective temp of 79° and we're starting to see a few 80°+ values pop up. If we can get into the lows 80s then perhaps things can work out better for us. Everything south of I-70 looks to be at least 80 by now. I don't suspect we'll have much problem with bouyancy. HRRR has liked that I-70 line for several runs now so maybe a thermal boundary setting up there that we'll see some additional focus along 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now