southmdwatcher Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Tornado warning Fredericksburg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 TOR for Fredericksburg and NE Spotsylvania County. Nothing super crazy on radar, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: TOR for Fredericksburg and NE Spotsylvania County. Nothing super crazy on radar, though. It had around three total frames of an actual couplet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Did Dulles just get dry slotted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 TOR just northwest of me. I can hear the siren. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 TOR just northwest of me. I can hear the siren.Somewhat surprised they’ve got sirens. Can definitely see the rotation on radar, though. Think that’s the same general area that was warned earlier today, no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 TOR just northwest of me. I can hear the siren.This you?Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 This you?Sent from my SM-G975U using TapatalkStorm just north of it might also justify a TW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Storm just north of it might also justify a TW. I see that, not bad signaturesSent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 1 minute ago, alexderiemer said: This you? Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Yes, I’m not in the warned area though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Somewhat surprised they’ve got sirens. Can definitely see the rotation on radar, though. Think that’s the same general area that was warned earlier today, no? Kinda, it was more North over Maryland I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2021 Share Posted May 30, 2021 Thursday maybe? From this morning's AFD: The positively tilted upper trough to our west will inch further east on Thursday as a shortwave embedded within that trough ejects northeastward from the Ohio Valley toward the eastern Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Valley. With the Bermuda high remaining in place offshore, moisture will continue to advect into the area on southerly low-level flow in advance of the approaching upper trough. The combination of moisture advection and subtle height falls/large scale ascent downstream of the trough will lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. With dewpoints rising into the mid 60s, model guidance suggests that around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE will be present along with around 30- 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. This type of parameter space could lead to some locally strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. With largely unidirectional southwesterly flow from just above the surface to the tropopause, some training elements may be possible in any storms that form. This in combination with precipitable water values climbing to around 1.5-1.8 inches may lead to some isolated instances of flooding as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2021 Author Share Posted May 30, 2021 CIPS would support something around that time. The 120hr panel is lit up decently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 Day 3 SLGT (Thursday) from SPC for the region... even mentions a chance for a few tornadoes Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Jun 01 2021 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over a portion of the Middle Atlantic Thursday with locally strong to damaging gusts the primary threat. ...Middle Atlantic region... A belt of 40-50 kt mid-level winds will spread above the moistening pre-frontal warm sector Thursday in association with an approaching positive-tilt upper trough. While areas of clouds and a few showers may develop early in the period along the evolving warm conveyor belt, pockets of diabatic heating will contribute to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms developing along and ahead of an approaching cold front will likely undergo a gradual intensification during the day with 35 to 40 kt effective bulk shear supporting a few organized structures. Damaging wind appears to be the primary threat, but low-level hodographs might become sufficient for a couple of tornadoes. Activity should weaken toward mid evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2021 Author Share Posted June 1, 2021 Day 3 slights often turn to Day 1 mehs around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 25 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Day 3 slights often turn to Day 1 mehs around here. I hope it does. My son is graduation ceremony is at 6:00 at the AG center in Westminster in one of the exhibition pavillions. Not the best place to be if something rolls through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 3 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Day 3 slights often turn to Day 1 mehs around here. No argument about that, but I have to say that I'm intrigued by Thursday's potential. Guidance right now shows favorable timing, a good trigger (lee trough), a respectable upper pattern, and good directional and speed shear in the lower levels. Instability could be better, as we won't have full heating, and the lapse rates are fair at best (but I've see worse). I'm going to be cautiously optimistic for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2021 Author Share Posted June 1, 2021 14 minutes ago, high risk said: No argument about that, but I have to say that I'm intrigued by Thursday's potential. Guidance right now shows favorable timing, a good trigger (lee trough), a respectable upper pattern, and good directional and speed shear in the lower levels. Instability could be better, as we won't have full heating, and the lapse rates are fair at best (but I've see worse). I'm going to be cautiously optimistic for now. The NAM nest has some respectable parameters too it seems. Will be interesting to see trends as we get closer. Would be fun to have a higher end slight or enhanced style event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 FWIW, the 12z NAMNEST is hot garbage for everyone for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 Seems like the morning rain and convection will probably limit daytime instability? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2021 Author Share Posted June 1, 2021 36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Seems like the morning rain and convection will probably limit daytime instability? Wouldn't be surprising at all. One of the more common ways for us to fail. Morning junk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Seems like the morning rain and convection will probably limit daytime instability? ride the hi-res window FV3 train, baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Wouldn't be surprising at all. One of the more common ways for us to fail. Morning junk! It's actually going to help us by lowering LCLs and allowing the circulations to more easily reach the ground. (But yeah, that is the potential fail mechanism, although it still looks for now like we'll have enough instability to make things interesting) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2021 Author Share Posted June 1, 2021 15 minutes ago, high risk said: It's actually going to help us by lowering LCLs and allowing the circulations to more easily reach the ground. (But yeah, that is the potential fail mechanism, although it still looks for now like we'll have enough instability to make things interesting) Out at Day 3 I won't say any fat lady has sung yet. I'm just longing for some actual severe tracking. We've had some interesting sneaky days this year so far - but so far not a ton of the big time area-wide "meat and potatoes" type events. By years elapsed only - we are due for a derecho I think. Maybe we can sneak in an ENH or MOD at some point. Hopefully we are not stuck "punting" until tropical season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 30 minutes ago, high risk said: It's actually going to help us by lowering LCLs and allowing the circulations to more easily reach the ground. (But yeah, that is the potential fail mechanism, although it still looks for now like we'll have enough instability to make things interesting) So what you're saying is that my house is gonna get slabbed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 OTD 9 years ago... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2021 Author Share Posted June 1, 2021 45 minutes ago, A777 said: OTD 9 years ago... That was a heck of a day. Talk about a DC area special. Little baby moderate just for our area. Always hard to believe that event and the derecho were within a calendar month of each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2021 Author Share Posted June 1, 2021 FWIW - The 12z run of CIPS got pretty nice looking at the 60hr mark. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 Speaking of 06/01/2012 I was where these guys were by the WAWA and Jones Junction mere minutes after they recorded this. It was a FREAKSHOW! Also 06/04/2010 the Fallston area got clobbered by legit severe. Also missed the action by mere minutes. p.s. those guys use the f-word a LOT so be ready for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 Bring it, that day underperformed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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