Kmlwx Posted May 18, 2021 Author Share Posted May 18, 2021 Just now, yoda said: Would be nice to see/hear some good storms... interestingly no mention in the SPC 4-8 day OTLK of anything nearby or even in the LWX AFD this morning It could just as easily be into June that we are waiting to see anything decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 19, 2021 Author Share Posted May 19, 2021 The GFS beyond 300 hours kind of has the ring of fire look to it. Big ridge in the center of the country/midwest and us on the eastern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 Eternal pain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 CC: @mappy and @Ian 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 15 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: CC: @mappy and @Ian So, the Ranson tornado hit immediately north of your location, @wxtrix? I vaguely recall @Mrs.J talking about the issuance of tornado warning for her stretch that afternoon. Those storms lost some punch once they got to the metro area and south but I do remember the wx radio going off a bunch of times that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 24, 2021 Share Posted May 24, 2021 We've had a total of two SLGT risk days so far this year. (March 28th, May 4th) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 Looks like Wednesday will be our first chance in a while to see some "severe" and have some storms... MRGL risk for some gusty to damaging winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 6 hours ago, yoda said: Looks like Wednesday will be our first chance in a while to see some "severe" and have some storms... MRGL risk for some gusty to damaging winds Nice for sure to be "back in the game". Tomorrow certainly has some modest potential. Deep layer shear is going to be close to the lower thresholds for severe - the question seems to be how much will the moisture mix out. The NAM nest has been consistently keeping much higher low-level dew points, while the HRRR has been most aggressive with the mixing and lowers the dew points the most. The NAM nest therefore has the most widespread convection, while the HRRR has the least. The other CAMs are for the most part in the middle in terms of low-level moisture and in coverage of storms, so I think that a MRGL is ok for now, with potential to go to SLGT if the mixing of moisture ends up to be less of a factor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 I like the Mason-Dixon counties up into the Harrisburg / Reading area for a few cells tomorrow. I could see a DY1 Slight getting put up for places north of I-70 if things break right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 25, 2021 Author Share Posted May 25, 2021 It's overall continued to be a very, very quiet May for the region. Question becomes whether we will get slapped around to break the quiet streak - or if it'll continue or just end with a whimper and a few storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 That’s an interesting tiny slow moving storm in Rockingham, VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r3w Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 Really liking the 18z NAM, looks good for the DC area into Southern MD...tapered expectations, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Well that new Day 1 was a bit surprising IMO... Slight risk for all... 2/15/15 Interesting disco too mentioning hail risk as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Ava mentioned tornadoes are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Ugh....daughter has a softball doubleheader at Westminster High at 4:00. Looks like we would be very lucky to get game 1 in or even started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 1 hour ago, mappy said: Ava mentioned tornadoes are possible. Be wary of excessive cicada debris! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 30 minutes ago, toolsheds said: Ugh....daughter has a softball doubleheader at Westminster High at 4:00. Looks like we would be very lucky to get game 1 in or even started. ha, meanwhile I am hoping it rains and my kid's baseball game is cancelled. I need an evening with no where to go 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2021 Author Share Posted May 26, 2021 2 hours ago, mappy said: Ava mentioned tornadoes are possible. SPC seems to agree with the 2% - but shear is pretty weak sauce. Could be fun to see some quarter sized hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Not a great start here...cloudy, even looks hazy/foggy. HRRR doesnt seem too enthused but we'll see! Its certainly muggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Eternal pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 57 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: SPC seems to agree with the 2% - but shear is pretty weak sauce. Could be fun to see some quarter sized hail. Yeah, they extended the 2% down here because a couple of HREF members have some very, very modest UH tracks. The afternoon storms probably have close to zero tornado potential, because as you noted, the shear is so weak. A window for a brief tornado might exist in the early evening if there is a round 2: the LLJ will strengthen a bit, and since it will have a westerly component, if the surface winds can back a bit near a leftover outflow boundary, a cell could briefly acquire rotation. If SPC had a 1% TOR contour, that would work just as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 42 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Not a great start here...cloudy, even looks hazy/foggy. HRRR doesnt seem too enthused but we'll see! Its certainly muggy HRRR is still by far the most aggressive model in mixing out the low level moisture. I'll be closely watching the dew points early this afternoon - if they fall into the upper 50s or lower 60s, I'll temper my expectations. If they stay in the mid or upper 60s, the CAMs with stronger, more widespread storms are more likely to be right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Its sunny out in western Fairfax county so we are building instability. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 fog burned off here -- hazy blue skies. LETS GO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Full sun all morning in Deep Creek 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Sun finally coming out on Capitol Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 30 minutes ago, mappy said: fog burned off here -- hazy blue skies. LETS GO TORS FOR ALL! 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2021 Author Share Posted May 26, 2021 Sun is out here in Colesville, MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 My target today would be Washington / Frederick / Carroll / Baltimore / Adams / York County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Sunny, hot and humid here in AA county. Looks, feels and sounds like some exotic tropical jungle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now