WxUSAF Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Decent segment in WV coming into LWX radar focus now... I just want rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Watch just issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2021 Author Share Posted May 4, 2021 the ARW and ARW2 12z runs are really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Just now, H2O said: Watch just issued Yep....the wx radio just started doing its happy dance. Forgot I had the volume raised and it just about blew me out of my office chair. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2021 Author Share Posted May 4, 2021 Watch probs are pretty low - but that's not unexpected given the parameters today. Two severe days in a row is always fun, though. Not super common (and we could make it three tomorrow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 If I radar hallucinate hard enough I can see those two severe warned cells hitting me directly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 SPC issues SEVERE TSTM WATCH until 00:00 UTC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2021 Author Share Posted May 4, 2021 That complex of storms is looking really nice. Some nice wind velocity on it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2021 Author Share Posted May 4, 2021 If it can grow - it's already kind of looking like one of those mythical long lines of severe storms that we've anecdotally all said we remember being more common in the 90s and 2000s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2021 Author Share Posted May 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: SPC issues SEVERE TSTM WATCH until 00:00 UTC Pretty much the entire CWA other than the extreme far NW counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 16 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: Yep....the wx radio just started doing its happy dance. Forgot I had the volume raised and it just about blew me out of my office chair. That is the Carrot weather app warning sound for me. Makes the cats scramble out of the room of the offending sound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 That's a beefy little cell booking for Front Royal. Might even have a bit of spin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2021 Author Share Posted May 4, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: That's a beefy little cell booking for Front Royal. Might even have a bit of spin. Echo tops on that complex have been steadily increasing as well. Over 40kft now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Echo tops on that complex have been steadily increasing as well. Over 40kft now. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 I am right under the X in KLWX radar starting to think this is a bit concerning with the cells picking up rotation and strengthening. A lot of people are smarter than me here so should I be? I mean not too concerning yet but if they do stay alive they should hit me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 15 hours ago, Stormfly said: Petered out well before the county line. They usually do or veer south. Nice relaxing shower now, a few rumbles of thunder. Biggest performers of the night are the Gray Tree Frogs. They are out in full force. The hooters (Barred Owls) will be happy! You finally identified a few posts back this specific owl species that's been stalking my backyard, @Stormfly....and then I finally caught one on camera last night just a few minutes after midnight! Video quality is meh (it's a Blink camera), but you can see it fly in at lower left, probably going after a frog or mouse on the patio. I was excited to capture this, as I've only ever seen them as swooping silhouettes in past years! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's a beefy little cell booking for Front Royal. Might even have a bit of spin. Seems that way when looking at it closer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2021 Author Share Posted May 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Seems that way when looking at it closer! It's broad for the time being. Will be interesting to see how that cell/complex evolves as it comes out of the Blue Ridge areas. My personal prediction is that it'll get close to the metro area and gust out into the typical outflow and heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Looks like the best stuff may go south of my area...but NOVA into DC and over to Annapolis look to potentially get it good between 430-730 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Nice looking storms with some rotation approaching CHO. I’ll be in class... hopefully it passes before I need to bike home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Think I’m a little too far south, almost on the edge of the watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Definitely a better event than I was thinking earlier, as the deep layer shear is better than progged earlier. That said, while I can see the stronger cells acquiring some broad rotation, you can't get strong low-level rotation with this wind profile: unless the model is way off with the weak low-level speeds that it's showing. It also doesn't look very good with the instability, but if lapse rates are better, there is plenty of dry air below cloud base to generate some intense downdrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 29 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Looks like the best stuff may go south of my area...but NOVA into DC and over to Annapolis look to potentially get it good between 430-730 I dunno...I’m cautiously optimistic looking at radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2021 Author Share Posted May 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I dunno...I’m cautiously optimistic looking at radar. The HRRR seemed to keep the main show along I-66 and then through DC proper but not a lot north of there. Would like to see just a bit more northerly motion with the activity. It's more messy looking on radar lately - but wonde rif part of that is the higher terrain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I dunno...I’m cautiously optimistic looking at radar. But then again, you're 20 miles southwest of me :)....Maybe itll expand more. Just think the best slips south of metro Baltimore based on radar right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The HRRR seemed to keep the main show along I-66 and then through DC proper but not a lot north of there. Would like to see just a bit more northerly motion with the activity. It's more messy looking on radar lately - but wonde rif part of that is the higher terrain Northernmost line approaching LWX definitely looking more raggedy than an hour ago, however....the strongest portion does appear to be taking a bead on the area just north of the District, so maybe you guys are indeed in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Not looking so good for us north of I-66. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 53 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Either that person doesn't know how big a golf ball is or s/he has a HUGE hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2021 Author Share Posted May 4, 2021 That new warning for Loudoun and Fairfax is pretty meh on LWX radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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