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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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4 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

We always seem to manage some sneaky gusty shower event in November or December. I just want something other than grey, boring skies to track. 

     There is definitely some sneaky wind potential Saturday with a forced line of convection on the front later in the day.   I'm tossing the NAM Nest solution which has the line fall apart - it tends to run cool, and I'm not buying its idea that we only get into the low 60s Saturday with the temp dropping as the sun sets.     I think we have a good shot to hit 70 and get a dew point up around 60, and it will stay warm until the line arrives.    With really strong winds just above the ground, it won't take much to mix down that momentum - that said, we won't have "much".    Even at 70/60, instability will be really limited due to warm mid-level temperatures.   So I think that we'll get a gusty line of showers, but it seems like little chance of lightning and a low chance of gusts close to SVR.   The strongest winds might be later in the evening right behind the front.

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The National Weather Service forecasts a line of thunderstorms to impact parts of MD on Saturday. These storms could produce isolated instances of damaging winds and even a possible tornado. Stay tuned to your local forecast & find shelter immediately if you receive  a Tornado Warning. #MdReady

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5 hours ago, Bodhi Cove said:

The National Weather Service forecasts a line of thunderstorms to impact parts of MD on Saturday. These storms could produce isolated instances of damaging winds and even a possible tornado. Stay tuned to your local forecast & find shelter immediately if you receive  a Tornado Warning. #MdReady

Where did you see that?

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11 minutes ago, Bodhi Cove said:

Received it via text message

Screenshot_20211210-214517.png

It's also on Twitter

Maryland Department of Emergency Management (MDEM) (@MDMEMA) Tweeted:
NWS forecasts a line of

thunderstorms to impact parts of MD on Saturday. These storms could produce isolated instances of damaging winds and even a possible tornado. Stay tuned to your local forecast & find shelter immediately if you receive  a Tornado Warning.

#MdWx #WeCare

 

 

 

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Getting serious Greensburg vibes from the videos from Mayfield. Just horrible. Worst-case scenario: a violent tornado consuming a town of some size in the middle of the night. Except Mayfield is considerably larger than Greensburg. Worst December tornado in the nation's history, perhaps, if these fatality estimates hold steady. The worst one I can think of previously was Vicksburg MS in 1953, 38 deaths. 

EDIT: Here's an outbreak in 1957 that affected the same general area (bullseyed a little bit to the north of last night's) in mid December, and it included an F5:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_sequence_of_December_18–20,_1957

 

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