2010 extreme Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Looks like the morning rain messed up todays chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 6 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Hmmm... related? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Doesn't usually happen around here Short Term Forecast National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 529 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 VAZ038-039-050-282200- Greene-Madison-Orange- 529 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 .NOW... At 529 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Stanardsville, or 7 miles southwest of Madison, moving southeast at 15 mph. Gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph and small hail are possible with this storm. These storms have a history of producing hail that covers the ground. Be alert for slippery travel conditions. Locations impacted include... Orange, Stanardsville, Montpelier Station, Madison Run, Pratts, Rochelle, Newtown, Aroda, Madison Mills, Montford, Old Somerset, Shelby, Dawsonville, Twymans Mill, Wolftown, Somerset, Hood, Locust Dale, Burtonville and Rapidan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 548 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 VAC003-079-137-282215- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0531.000000T0000Z-210928T2215Z/ Orange VA-Albemarle VA-Greene VA- 548 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE...NORTHEASTERN ALBEMARLE AND SOUTHERN GREENE COUNTIES... At 547 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm with a history of producing large hail covering the ground was located near Free Union, or 11 miles north of Charlottesville, moving southeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Hail accumulating on roadways may result in very slippery travel conditions. Locations impacted include... Hollymead, Ruckersville, Boonesville, Eheart, Barboursville, Stony Point, Advance Mills, Saint George, Earlysville, Amicus and Shady Grove. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3825 7863 3827 7855 3820 7822 3809 7835 3815 7851 TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 293DEG 16KT 3820 7846 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 549 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 VAC047-137-282215- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0532.000000T0000Z-210928T2215Z/ Orange VA-Culpeper VA- 549 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN CULPEPER COUNTIES... At 549 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles southeast of Culpeper, moving southeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Two inch hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Gold Dale, Raccoon Ford, Mine Run, Lake Of The Woods, Burr Hill, Locust Grove and Flat Run. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3837 7809 3838 7798 3840 7787 3838 7768 3824 7782 TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 301DEG 15KT 3832 7791 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Very intense and distinct hail cores on radar as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, yoda said: Hmmm... related? Yeap. That's indeed the doing of the bolt heard around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 3 hours ago, H2O said: Need an EJ meh Since you asked: Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Not a bust in Charlottesville. Some super pretty skies and now under a STW. Good deal of small hail reported locally. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 10 hours ago, forkyfork said: hope everyone is ok!!! Got a lot of play as a rogue bolt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 Four hundredths in the Young tipper here. Nice lightning to our NE lasted about 20 minutes with some rumbling. Came out of nowhere seemingly. Blew up fast and then out. Like the city slicker on a camping trip trying to start a campfire with three logs and a pint of white gasoline! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 Saturday maybe? High shear low instability event possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 18 hours ago, yoda said: Saturday maybe? High shear low instability event possible Certainly possible. Looks likely that there will be a line of forced convection along the cold front in the late afternoon. Deep layer shear will be robust, but as you note, the instability is the question mark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 MRGL risk for Day 3 (Saturday) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Nothing has really changed. Instability is going to limit the severe threat, but a forced line of convection will sweep across the area during the early to mid afternoon hours on Saturday. Lightning threat is limited, but I would still not be surprised if some healthy gusts accompany the line. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Tuesday surprise? Day 4-8 SPC OTLK mentions potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 This is just NW of our area, but worthy of mention. Last night there was a burst of tornado warned cells in a line. Appears that so far, 6 confirmed tornadoes with another 5 surveys planned by NWS Pittsburgh. SPC meso'd the activity (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1882.html), but I gotta be honest, it was short sighted to not box this. Nocturnal tornadoes in October are rare in PA and SPC / EMs / NWS et al are lucky no one was killed. Really disagree with the decision here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Monday severe threat... SLGT risk up on Day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 6 hours ago, yoda said: Monday severe threat... SLGT risk up on Day 3 SLGT for the southwest part of the area and MRGL for the rest. The question will be how warm it can stay after dark. Clouds and southerly winds should keep temps up through the evening and overnight hours, but it will still be cooling, and instability will be limited. The better threat is definitely well west and southwest of our area, but a line of storms (or heavy showers) well after dark with some wind potential is probably worth the threats SPC has assigned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Didn't check it until just now... but SPC also mentioned us again in the Day 4-8 outlook for Thursday into Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Hmmm... 00z Euro suggests to me a severe threat on Friday.. Maybe even late Thursday and Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 3 hours ago, yoda said: Didn't check it until just now... but SPC also mentioned us again in the Day 4-8 outlook for Thursday into Friday Mentioned again... but no outlook yet due to uncertainty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Slight area expanded a bit for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 On 10/23/2021 at 10:11 AM, high risk said: SLGT for the southwest part of the area and MRGL for the rest. The question will be how warm it can stay after dark. Clouds and southerly winds should keep temps up through the evening and overnight hours, but it will still be cooling, and instability will be limited. The better threat is definitely well west and southwest of our area, but a line of storms (or heavy showers) well after dark with some wind potential is probably worth the threats SPC has assigned. This post didn't age well, as the timing now appears to be much faster. If we toss the anemic, outlier NAM Nest solution, a large area of convection should be approaching from the southwest in the early evening with perhaps a few lead cells out ahead racing south to north. Deep layer shear is good but is mainly due to very fast winds at the higher levels; the combination of weaker shear in lower levels and limited instability will likely mitigate the threat in the DC/Baltimore area, although an earlier arrival would open the door to a slightly higher threat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 LWX with a great writeup this morning about today's threat NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The key players on the synoptic map early this morning are a warm front arcing west-to-east across southern Pennsylvania. Off to the west, GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows a potent cyclone spinning over central Illinois. The attendant cold front moving through central Indiana and western Kentucky features relatively cold cloud tops and plenty of lightning activity. This system is set to embark on the Mid-Atlantic region later this evening and into the night. Expect locally heavy downpours, gusty to possibly damaging caliber winds, an isolated tornado, and a marked cool down into the following day. Relatively benign weather is being observed at 07Z with a few high clouds streaming overhead. Otherwise, quiet conditions are anticipated through the early afternoon. Mild southerly flow is supporting above average temperatures with mid 50s to low 60s being rather widespread. Throughout the day, continued warm advection and rising heights will allow highs to soar into the mid/upper 70s. With 850-mb temperatures progged to reach 15C, a couple of low 80s readings are not out of the question. However, all of this warmth will disappear as a strong cold front looms upstream across the Ohio Valley. The scenario which unfolds is somewhat complicated which lends itself to some uncertainty. First, in addition to the system ejecting out of the Midwest, a second system lifting out of the southeastern U.S. will also play a role in the pattern. Energetics from the southern stream impulse are forecast to move toward southern Maryland during the late afternoon while cyclogenesis unfolds off the Carolina coast. The shortwave may spawn some showers east of I-95 in advance of the main cold front. Forecast soundings ahead of the expected frontal convection are somewhat erratic, possibly owing to the pre- frontal activity. Vertical profiles show more of a veer-to- back-to-veering wind field which is not terribly conducive to supercellular structures. However, deep-layer shear of 40 to 50 knots is substantial enough to keep a severe thunderstorm risk in place. This is despite the limited instability of 250 to 500 J/kg, locally higher in spots. Based on the recent high-resolution model suite, a north/south oriented line of showers and thunderstorms should form along the cold front. These will race eastward from the Shenandoah Valley toward the I-95 corridor in the 22Z-02Z window before reaching the Eastern Shore by after midnight. The main threat will be damaging winds as higher momentum air gets mixed down to the surface. Cannot rule out an isolated tornado, but such an occurrence would be brief. Heading into the night, some residual showers should linger as the shortwave passes overhead. Aside from the Alleghenies which will be in the upper 30s to low 40s, mild conditions continue as the colder air will yet to arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 5% hail added on 1300z OTLK... 2%tor from DC to the south and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and possibly a tornado risk are expected from the southern and central Appalachians into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic region, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States/Carolinas... The remnants of last evening's severe storms across the Ozarks/Middle Mississippi Valley grew upscale and persist early this morning in a diminished intensity from Ohio south-southwestward into eastern portions of Kentucky and middle/eastern Tennessee, parallel to but ahead of an eastward-moving cold front. The parent shortwave trough will continue eastward over the Midwest/Ohio Valley toward the central/northern Appalachians through tonight, with height falls and the exit region of a strong mid/upper jet overspreading the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/Virginia. The aforementioned bands of convection and related cloud cover will tend to hinder pre-frontal destabilization across the Upper Ohio Valley and windward side of the Appalachians, but a few strong/severe low-topped storms could occur pending weak but sufficient destabilization this afternoon in those areas. A more certain/probable severe-weather risk is expected this afternoon east of the Appalachians spine, perhaps initially near/just east of the Blue Ridge across Virginia and nearby Maryland/North Carolina. This is where cloud breaks ahead of the upstream cold front and lingering overnight convection should allow for modest destabilization, with upwards of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible from the North Carolina/Virginia Blue Ridge and Piedmont vicinities toward the Delmarva by late afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear will support some well-organized storms including linear bands aside from the possibility of some initial/embedded supercells, particularly across the Piedmont of Virginia and northern North Carolina. Although low-level shear will not be overly strong and details of convective mode are a bit uncertain, the potential for a tornado or two could somewhat increase late this afternoon/early evening. This would particularly be across southern Virginia/northern North Carolina pending weak lee-side low/trough development and a related increase in low-level shear/SRH. Damaging winds will otherwise be the most probable hazard across the region this afternoon and evening, with a few instances of marginally severe hail also a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 already sunny so we got that going for us. This one gonna surprise some people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 28 minutes ago, H2O said: already sunny so we got that going for us. This one gonna surprise some people Yea this has sneaky overperformer written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 27 minutes ago, H2O said: already sunny so we got that going for us. This one gonna surprise some people Feels sickly humid too after getting a nice break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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