WxUSAF Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 NAM and Hrrr look way more bullish than they did this morning on the 6z runs. 3k NAM with the HoCo bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: NAM and Hrrr look way more bullish than they did this morning on the 6z runs. 3k NAM with the HoCo bullseye Yeah 12z NAM looks very active compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 I'm mostly on board with the severe threat, although the coverage of storms during the severe "window" (roughly 21z to 02z) will be limited. Might transition to more of a flash flood threat later in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Strong storm with some gusty winds, and heavy rain. Probably the best storm I’ve seen since July. Edit: Really close lightning strike, I could see the orange on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 i have this "farmer forecasting" theory that we don't usually do well with storms when we're having a breezy day leading up to it. it'll probably fail with a cold front pushing through later, but curious how we do this afternoon. hoping it does hold off because i want to get a trail ride in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2021 Author Share Posted September 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, 87storms said: i have this "farmer forecasting" theory that we don't usually do well with storms when we're having a breezy day leading up to it. it'll probably fail with a cold front pushing through later, but curious how we do this afternoon. hoping it does hold off because i want to get a trail ride in. Would think it's not just about wind speed - but more important wind direction. Consider a breezy south wind bringing in humid/unstable air with a warm front passage. That would be an indicator of potentially higher severe potential versus a stiff NE breeze bringing in a wedge in the cool season or spring/fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Would think there will be a MCD coming soon for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2021 Author Share Posted September 8, 2021 Just now, yoda said: Would think there will be a MCD coming soon for the area Radar is pretty empty other than the stuff approaching the Northern Neck. Seems the guidance had stuff kind of later than usual for us (0-2z). May be waiting for an MCD for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Would think it's not just about wind speed - but more important wind direction. Consider a breezy south wind bringing in humid/unstable air with a warm front passage. That would be an indicator of potentially higher severe potential versus a stiff NE breeze bringing in a wedge in the cool season or spring/fall. true, we certainly would expect severe during a tropical storm running under us, but something about having that stagnant air mass that we score in. i'm mostly just basing it off experience without any science, which is why it'll probably fail lol. definitely agree with your point for today's example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2021 Author Share Posted September 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, 87storms said: true, we certainly would expect severe during a tropical storm running under us, but something about having that stagnant air mass that we score in. i'm mostly just basing it off experience without any science, which is why it'll probably fail lol. definitely agree with your point for today's example. Not to mention the plentiful other factors like how much sunshine we get, lapse rates - so many ways to fail around here. Some of it is probably anecdotal as you mention. I think for a day like the June 2012 derecho - you're absolutely right - that HOT, stagnant airmass fueled the maintenance of the storms as they plowed east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 20 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Not to mention the plentiful other factors like how much sunshine we get, lapse rates - so many ways to fail around here. Some of it is probably anecdotal as you mention. I think for a day like the June 2012 derecho - you're absolutely right - that HOT, stagnant airmass fueled the maintenance of the storms as they plowed east. yea, like the last couple weeks leading up to ida it was almost the same airmass everyday...humid/stagnant and afternoon storms, at least close to the mason dixon line. i'm still annoyed that i didn't take vid of the derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Sounds like evening fun... afternoon LWX AFD .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Stacked low is located well to the north in Canada while a cold front trails through upstate NY and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. An MCV is moving through southeast VA this afternoon, and will likely represent the first "round" of thunderstorms which will brush by the Northern Neck and Southern Maryland. Guidance has been quite variable with where and when the next storms will develop, although so far it appears the stable layers in the 12Z IAD sounding are holding strong. The terrain and/or a weak pressure trough could serve as an initiation point later this afternoon. Additional convection could form or strengthen as the actual cold front presses eastward this evening. For this afternoon, moderate instability and DCAPE are in place near and east of the Blue Ridge, though shear is still lacking. Thus expect activity to be somewhat pulsey and disorganized. Increasing shear will overspread the region this evening, so storms may be able to organize into a line or clusters. Damaging winds will be the main threat, although some hail is possible. There may be a brief window for a tornado or two this evening as a low level jet spreads into the region. This jet and slow frontal motion may also result in some training of storms which could lead to some localized flooding. While the biggest severe weather threat will likely be this evening, showers and some thunderstorms will likely continue along the frontal zone through the night as it progresses eastward, some anafrontal in nature. Some locally heavy rain could continue during this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 18z NAM and the 19z HRRR aren’t enthused. Would like some of what LWX is discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 NAM says what storms? It's been incredibly inconsistent today for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Got a pretty diesel bike ride in at gambrill (yellow poplar) so I’m ready for storms now. The trail was in good shape…not surprising since we’ve had a few days since the Thursday drencher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Severe thunderstorm watch for DC metro, west to the Blue Ridge, and north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 I was surprised by the box, given no MD and the fact that we're cooling post-sunset. But the parameters on the SPC mesoanalysis look pretty good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 There’s definitely a stormy feel in the air outside. Radar is looking intriguing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Near constant lightning in the distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 And now thunder. This one might be healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Pretty much the same rate of lightning as the derecho tbh. Whatever is about to roll through here looks like it has bad intentions lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Torrents have commenced. Lightning core lagging behind a bit. Still a thunder delay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 27 minutes ago, wxtrix said: i’m on the the back edge of 2 big storms. tons of lightning and one really close strike. no wind and just a little rain. Decent wind here now, but mostly a ton of rain. Coming down in sheets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Gonna be some gaudy rain gauge amounts from these cells. No close lightning strikes here so far. Kinda surprised by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Watching the flashing from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Nice light show for the passed hour, first the stuff that went through Gettysburg, then the line that filled in. Rumbling to my west now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Passed hour. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 59 minutes ago, H2O said: Passed hour. Lol meh lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 2 hours ago, H2O said: Passed hour. Lol Apparently hours can be passed and rushed! As they say "In an ambulance, got a chance! In a hearse, gotta be worse!" And there's this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Last chance saloon tomorrow night into Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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