mappy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 oh my, that south of Baltimore cell has a tail end charlie look going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Decent spike in lightning. Looks like the cell might be starting to interact with a bit of bay influence or possible sense the warm front that's draped across NE MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Guess I should also prepare for that deluge to hit here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Loud thunder here in Towson from that cell. It’s looking juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Very distant rumble of thunder just now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 The remnant surface is in SW PA now and what to Dc’s south look like it’s going wide to the right? So I guess I shouldn’t plan on much local excitement, not that expectations were that high anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, 09-10 analogy said: The remnant surface is in SW PA now and what to Dc’s south look like it’s going wide to the right? So I guess I shouldn’t plan on much local excitement, not that expectations were that high anyway. There is likely to be renewed activity. Where exactly that impacts remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I'm with H2O on debbing it big time. I honestly don't need any more water IMBY, but I wouldn't mind seeing a few trees uprooted in the neighborhood. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'm with H2O on debbing it big time. I honestly don't need any more water IMBY, but I wouldn't mind seeing a few trees uprooted in the neighborhood. fist bump 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Lost power in that last batch of rain. No idea why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 Parameters remain decent - earlier mesoscale discussion indicates there is still some hope for renewed activity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 Still not really much development going on to the south of that line. Nice storm for HGR though it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Yeah, at least it was a cooler overcast to go with the mega humid. Now we add Aug sun to the mix. Weeeee...Pretty nice storm rolling through there. What's the report? Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 23 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Still not really much development going on to the south of that line. Nice storm for HGR though it seems. A few cells popping up in western Montgomery and near Culpepper. HRRR shows a strong line (or line with embedded supercells?) moving through DC and points north after dinner time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Tornado Warning on that storm in Northern Frederick Co. Quiet down in SW Frederick Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Was in the storm that came through hagerstown. Nice heavy downpour. Same storm was warned for a Tornado just to my NE in Rouzerville ,Casecade/Blueridge summit area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 The fat lady is warming up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: The fat lady is warming up. Holding a fork. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: The fat lady is warming up. Well, that was…uninteresting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 one last tornado warning on the MD/PA border, near @mappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 18 minutes ago, high risk said: one last tornado warning on the MD/PA border, near @mappy We are okay, rotation was just to our west. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
32º Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 25 minutes ago, high risk said: one last tornado warning on the MD/PA border, near @mappy Rotation went right over us with no immediate damage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 51 minutes ago, mappy said: We are okay, rotation was just to our west. Glad it wasn’t any closer. Had to be a little scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 I was not expecting a FFW to be issued this afternoon. I thought maybe a few days of quiet ahead after yesterday. I guess not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 That storm in WV/MD looked interesting on one of the last scans. Not so much this scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2021 Author Share Posted August 26, 2021 Some nice velocity scans on the DC cell(s) from the TDCA radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 MRGL risk up today for some damaging wind gusts... kinda going to be a threat each day for a little while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 10 hours ago, yoda said: MRGL risk up today for some damaging wind gusts... kinda going to be a threat each day for a little while Looks like we got a DY1 Slight Risk now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like we got a DY1 Slight Risk now. WBAL at noon was honking on big time severe this evening. Was a surprise to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 11 minutes ago, mappy said: WBAL at noon was honking on big time severe this evening. Was a surprise to me. Sterling's updated short term AFD is...interesting: Quote .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LOW-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, AND THIS WILL CAUSE MORE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR MOST AREAS WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A HEAT ADVISORY SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY MIX DOWN JUST A BIT AROUND PEAK HEATING, AND THERE WILL BE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING AS WELL. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST, PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME, A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER OUR AREA, AND IT MAY BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY THE SHORTWAVE. A LIGHT FLOW THAT MEANS MORE BOUNDARIES FROM TERRAIN CIRCULATION AND THE BAY/POTOMAC BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE ALREADY PRESENT NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS OF 12Z PER MESOANALYSIS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST 6 C/KM IN THE 12Z RAOB IAD AS IS TO BE EXPECTED IN A MOIST LATE SUMMER ENVIRONMENT AND MAY ACTUALLY DECREASE SOMEWHAT THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE STEEPENING SLIGHTLY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN SO, DEW POINTS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 70 DEGREES AND PWS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES SHOULD RESULT IN AMPLE MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG EAST OF I-81. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION OVER EASTERN WV THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, RESULTING IN A SHARPENING LEE PRESSURE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD IGNITE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK FLOW OF 15 KTS IN THE MID-LEVELS, THE COMBINATION OF STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH COUPLE WITH ADDED CONVERGENCE, LIFT AND MODEST LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS BAY/RIVER BREEZE CIRCULATIONS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LOOSELY ORGANIZE CELLS INTO CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE; A COUPLE OF CONSIDERABLE MICROBURSTS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT GIVE A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF ABOUT 20 KTS AT 700 MB AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGING OFF THE CAROLINAS AND DCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER GIVEN THE STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION, THE ABUNDANT CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WITH DEEP MOIST PROFILES MAY RESULT IN PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HREF PROBABILITIES OF UPDRAFTS SPEEDS >20 M/S OF 50-70% SUPPORT THE NOTION OF SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MD AS WELL AS THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METRO AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS, AND THIS OVERLAYS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS. ALSO, AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH, IT DOES APPEAR THAT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP. MOST GUIDANCE CLOSES OFF AN 850MB LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN MD. THIS WILL ENHANCE FORCING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, CAUSING A BETTER CHANCE FOR TRAINING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BALTIMORE METRO AREA INTO NORTHEASTERN MD. FARTHER SOUTHWEST, CONVECTION MAY BE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE DC AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE A COUPLE ROUNDS, AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES MAY STILL CAUSE ISSUES WITH FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS EVEN IF IT IS SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE. THAT'S WHY THE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. AN EXPANSION OF THE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN AREA TO THE NORTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MD, OR EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN EARLIER INITIATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAY/POTOMAC BREEZES SINCE THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CONVERGENCE (SOUTHEAST WIND INTO SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND). THAT'S WHY THE WATCH STARTS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING FOR MOST AREAS, BUT IT MAY HANG AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MD BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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