WEATHER53 Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, The Dude said: Drove around a bit. A number of trees down, a ton of branches down. Definitely a top 5 storm over the past 18 years that I've lived here. I think winds may have been 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Heavy shower has strengthened into a thunderstorm now as it moved to my east. Moderate rain and distant thunder here. Seems to be a developing signal for some stronger winds as the cell moves across Anne Arundel county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 15 hours ago, high risk said: That's a nasty wind signal over Silver Spring now. Hearing that it was pretty bad as it passed through Bethesda. 37 storm related calls in just the Bethesda area. 56 total across down county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 10 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: I think winds may have been 60? That sounds about right. The soil was damp after all the rain earlier in the week, but a neighbor had a healthy white pine snapped ~30 feet up. And I saw countless large limbs down in addition to the numerous full trees that were down. My initial estimate from watching the winds come through was ~50 mph, but after seeing the damage, I wouldn't be surprised if some spots saw ~60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 12, 2021 Author Share Posted August 12, 2021 Some really beefy instability out there today. Imagine if there was a defined and focused trigger...and shear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 12, 2021 Author Share Posted August 12, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: Some really beefy instability out there today. Imagine if there was a defined and focused trigger...and shear... Even ML lapse rates are good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: Even ML lapse rates are good... DCAPE between 1300 and 1500 too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 You never get derechos with SW flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 12, 2021 Author Share Posted August 12, 2021 Radar is void of anything. Thinking today will probably end with nothing for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Radar is void of anything. Thinking today will probably end with nothing for most of us. No kicker, we lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 12, 2021 Author Share Posted August 12, 2021 30 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: No kicker, we lose. Had a good streak this week. I'm okay with a dud day at this point. Almost time to start looking for east coast tropical too OT - but I really hope we are done with 95+ after this heat wave ends. Past August 15th I'm going into fall mode and hunting the first fall cold front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Had a good streak this week. I'm okay with a dud day at this point. Almost time to start looking for east coast tropical too OT - but I really hope we are done with 95+ after this heat wave ends. Past August 15th I'm going into fall mode and hunting the first fall cold front. Tomorrow could be sneaky good. We've been baking for 2 days and there's an actual front pressing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 12, 2021 Author Share Posted August 12, 2021 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Tomorrow could be sneaky good. We've been baking for 2 days and there's an actual front pressing down. Would be a fun Friday if so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 Night before last (08/10) near Glen Arm MD. Turned into a pretty nasty storm near Carney/Perring Plaza where I was headed. 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 13, 2021 Author Share Posted August 13, 2021 DCAPE is lower than previous days at least at this early hours. PWATS are 1.9 - soupy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: DCAPE is lower than previous days at least at this early hours. PWATS are 1.9 - soupy! Nothing much more than a gut feeling, but I’m thinking today could get hairy in some backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, mattie g said: Nothing much more than a gut feeling, but I’m thinking today could get hairy in some backyards. I’ll cut my grass for you to lower your risk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 13, 2021 Author Share Posted August 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, mattie g said: Nothing much more than a gut feeling, but I’m thinking today could get hairy in some backyards. HRRR brings activity in - but it's not all that intense - but wonder if it is a result of the overmixing of the model that @high risk has mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, mattie g said: Nothing much more than a gut feeling, but I’m thinking today could get hairy in some backyards. Lots of flickering lights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 53 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Lots of flickering lights Beware of said flickering lights! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 Something to add to your knowledge base: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 13, 2021 Author Share Posted August 13, 2021 Initiation in the vicinity of the higher terrain in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 no lack of fuel in the atmosphere today, that's for sure. feels every bit as hot as yesterday. i moved to frederick recently and had a nice downburst or outflow the other day, probably enhanced by the catoctin's. i'm so used to the moco climate that i've gotta get used to how things develop here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 Meso'd: Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1510 (noaa.gov) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 13, 2021 Author Share Posted August 13, 2021 Severe watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 13, 2021 Author Share Posted August 13, 2021 Radar looks pretty good to the west. Now we wait and see how much punch it has once it gets closer to the metros. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 50 minutes ago, 87storms said: no lack of fuel in the atmosphere today, that's for sure. feels every bit as hot as yesterday. i moved to frederick recently and had a nice downburst or outflow the other day, probably enhanced by the catoctin's. i'm so used to the moco climate that i've gotta get used to how things develop here. What part of Fred Co? I am in the SW part of the Co and the mountains and Potomac affect anything coming in from the South and the West. We usually do pretty good down here when it drops from the NW. That being said my area has not been that lucky this year. Very dry down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 46 minutes ago, Mrs.J said: What part of Fred Co? I am in the SW part of the Co and the mountains and Potomac affect anything coming in from the South and the West. We usually do pretty good down here when it drops from the NW. That being said my area has not been that lucky this year. Very dry down here. I’m nw of downtown/rosemont, in between yellow springs and ft Detrick. Not too far from gambrill state park. I don’t think the entire area has gotten much rain compared to the last few years. I mountain bike a fair amount and even Moco has had some relatively dry trails. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Radar looks pretty good to the west. Now we wait and see how much punch it has once it gets closer to the metros. I'm expecting something similar to Wednesday, as have a similar combination of high CAPE and fairly high downdraft CAPE but no shear. Storms will pulse, and there will be some impressive wind events, but it shouldn't be anything too organized. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 13, 2021 Author Share Posted August 13, 2021 DCAPE is still several hundred J/kg lower than previous days. CAPE seems fine overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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