Maestrobjwa Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Ruh-roh....I'll be heading up to Cecil County in a couple hours...hope we can beat the storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 For those of your running a home installation of GR radar, here is a great placefile from CIMMS that works to show near real time probability of a storm pushing severe limits: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PROBSEVERE Screenshot of it in action: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 Radar sure seems pedestrian at the moment. Very scattered, very small cells, if you can even call them that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Radar sure seems pedestrian at the moment. Very scattered, very small cells, if you can even call them that. Can you point to any guidance that shows there are supposed to be widespread storms right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: Can you point to any guidance that shows there are supposed to be widespread storms right now? It's not exactly a major outbreak of storms, but the NAM looks quite a bit more impressive than current radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 9, 2021 Author Share Posted July 9, 2021 34 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's not exactly a major outbreak of storms, but the NAM looks quite a bit more impressive than current radar. Which NAM are you looking at. The 12z NAM nest was fairly unimpressive other than some scattered storms that looked sub-severe. Earlier run maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 Thanks for that placefile Eskimo Joe. Should come in handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 1211 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021 Areas affected...eastern Virginia into eastern Maryland and Delaware Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 091815Z - 092015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to form over the next few hours with locally damaging wind gusts and small hail possible. DISCUSSION...Surface convergence continues to increase in relation to a developing low pressure trough, with westerly winds across western VA and NC. GPS PWAT sensors indicate a relative maximum around 1.80" over eastern VA, with continued heating further destabilizing the air mass. Shear is weak, but the favorable time of day and steepening low-level lapse rates should foster strong outflow, with a few severe gusts possible. The increasing westerly flow should push the better moisture eastward with time, ..Jewell/Bunting.. 07/09/2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 come on cells in PA, move slow, dump a lot of rain so I can rest some more tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 Lots of rumbling in Burke. That complex really fired up in the last 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 about to get totally screwed in Howard County...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, high risk said: about to get totally screwed in Howard County...... Back to drought concerns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Back to drought concerns 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Back to drought concerns Your not alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 Finally some action, and a near- by severe thunderstorm warning. C and D Canal area gettng very heavy rains in a interesting West to East elongated radar signature, as in training cells. Flood Advisory National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 650 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 DEC003-NJC015-033-100200- /O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0061.210709T2250Z-210710T0200Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ New Castle DE-Gloucester NJ-Salem NJ- 650 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a * Flood Advisory for... New Castle County in northern Delaware... West Central Gloucester County in southern New Jersey... Salem County in southern New Jersey... * Until 1000 PM EDT. * At 650 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly across portions of the advised area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain can be expected. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Wilmington, Newark, Middletown, Pennsville, Carneys Point, Elsmere, New Castle, Penns Grove, Salem, Woodstown, Alloway, and Quinton. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 10, 2021 Share Posted July 10, 2021 Softball game ended up being called early due to the warned storm that came out of Westminster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Slight chance for the northern crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 #fringed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Storms firing right along and in front of the outflow boundary and seeing clouds build around me. Maybe there is still hope for us DC crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Fringed https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0375.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 33 minutes ago, Kleimax said: Fringed https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0375.html Yeah, been a strange pattern recently where it seems like PA and north has really been cashing in while it's just mostly hot and humid down here with isolated storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yeah, been a strange pattern recently where it seems like PA and north has really been cashing in while it's just mostly hot and humid down here with isolated storms. We've been under the ridge axis, so plenty of moisture and instability streams to our west and north but we get scraps. Ridge will push out on Saturday. Tomorrow probably some activity as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 52 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We've been under the ridge axis, so plenty of moisture and instability streams to our west and north but we get scraps. Ridge will push out on Saturday. Tomorrow probably some activity as well. GFS looks pretty wet Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Of course, not ideal being the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 storms today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, mappy said: storms today? Lol. Softball today? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Lol. Softball today? lol of course! Season ends at the end of July. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 1 hour ago, mappy said: storms today? Hrrr says yes, but not for you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Hrrr says yes, but not for you It’s too early to be bullseyed by the hrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: It’s too early to be bullseyed by the hrrr. 3k NAM looks generally similar with most action for DC and points south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 55 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Hrrr says yes, but not for you I saw the same. It's fine, if the breeze keeps up we won't die on the fields! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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