Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 Extended range CIPS has a pretty good signature (especially by this year's standards) out at 168 hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 20 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Extended range CIPS has a pretty good signature (especially by this year's standards) out at 168 hours. Yes. I've noticed that some models have looked a bit more 'sheary' than usual for the time of year in the long range. Fingers, toes, arms, legs and anything you can cross crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, George BM said: Yes. I've noticed that some models have looked a bit more 'sheary' than usual for the time of year in the long range. Fingers, toes, arms, legs and anything you can cross crossed. We should of course expect it to fade out with time - or if not that, the timing will suck when game time arrives. There's some signature way out at 312hr too. I feel like I've become the king of over using CIPS - but I mean...it's the "quickest" way to get a sense of what the GFS is showing out in range without doing the analysis yourself That's one of the more robust signatures I think we've seen this year. And having it honk that hard at 168 is pretty eye opening. I think tomorrow afternoon could have some decent storms - Tuesday looks dead right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 51 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I think tomorrow afternoon could have some decent storms - Tuesday looks dead right now. I have to agree that we're now in the "Monday or bust" realm, as the timing for Tuesday shows no indication now of slowing down enough for us. There is certainly an increasing signal here for scattered storms later Monday into Monday evening, and there may be enough dry air in the low levels for a few downbursts, but the much better deep layer shear will remain to our west and likely preclude a more organized SVR threat. At this point, I just want to be sure avoid missing out entirely on rain by the time we get to Tuesday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 Another note on the CIPS stuff for those who aren't familiar with it. The severe stuff on there usually has a tier for "Percent of analogs with at least 1 severe report within X number of km" and then a tier for the same thing but for 5 or more reports. It makes it a quick way to see 1) Are the analogs hinting at severe potential and then 2) Our garden variety severe or something a bit more substantial. If you notice the percentages for 1+ report are lighting up like a Christmas tree, but the 5 or more is pretty lackluster...can be a good indication that the analogs are suggesting a decent shot at a window of severe potential but not anything on the higher end. And of course...the range and such all come into play - we've seen things fizzle from way closer in than 168 hours. I also like to poke around to look at the different domains they have available. Sometimes the analogs from one domain will show a big swath of potential for us, while the domain over the Mid-Atlantic will show nada or very limited potential. And of course...analogs are just that. Rough guides on what happened when certain aspects of the pattern/atmosphere were in a similar state. Doesn't mean it will match up on a subsequent "match" in conditions. AND FURTHER - CIPS uses the NAM for the shorter range stuff, and then GFS for the longer range stuff. There's not (to my knowledge) any factoring in of the Euro, CMC, ICON etc. So you'll get the American models - but if they are vastly wrong it won't mean s**t. During severe season (I guess during winter too) - I usually do a quick glance at CIPS to decide if I want to do a more indepth look at any of the modeling from overnight. If it's pretty dead on CIPS, I'll usually peak on the forums in case there's something that the mets here are watching - and if not...usually safe to go mow the lawn or enjoy the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 And yet another thing to add to my "wall of text" above. A factor I didn't even think about when writing that post... You'd have to assume that more densely populated areas will report larger numbers of severe reports in a comparable event versus a more rural area. Thus...that could bias those percentage maps to show a more "honking" kind of look when it might look much more toned down in less densely populated areas. I'm not aware (but I haven't checked) to see if there's any population adjustment to those maps. So you'd wonder if a "corrected" map of what I posted earlier might look a lot less impressive. ETA: Just look at the relative minimum in the percentages on that map in WV. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 After the miserable bust of Saturday, it looks like we've got a somewhat better chance today. Issues include a cap and some deep mixing potential. We're also going to probably be a bit dependent on LEWPs or bows surging well out ahead of the front to get the job done, since forcing locally will be pretty weak. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 I certainly don't hate the storm cluster that the HRRR has been advertising moving through the region late this afternoon. Other 0z CAMs to a slightly lesser extent showed a similar thing. Much like what csnavywx hinted at above. I don't hate the large DCAPE and 30-40kt mid-level flow showing up on CAMs either (Wind potential). Fingers crossed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2021 Author Share Posted June 21, 2021 the NAM nest is depicting some pockets of nearly 5000 SBCAPE today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 35 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: the NAM nest is depicting some pockets of nearly 5000 SBCAPE today. yeah, it somehow creates small pockets of dew points in the upper 70s which of course makes the CAPE values expose. Not sure why it's doing that, but it's obvious wrong. Of course, we have the HRRR at the other end of the spectrum with its standard aggressive mixing of the low-level moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2021 Author Share Posted June 21, 2021 For the moment - my dewpoint is a soupy 72. Let's see where that goes into the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: For the moment - my dewpoint is a soupy 72. Let's see where that goes into the afternoon. 84/74 here this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 I have 88/77 at the house at the moment, that is wild and seems high to me. (DP wise at least) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 3000+ SBCAPE along I95 per SPC mesoanalysis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2021 Author Share Posted June 21, 2021 38 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 3000+ SBCAPE along I95 per SPC mesoanalysis. DCAPE very good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 SPC bumped southern PA to ENH down to the mason dixon line. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2021 Author Share Posted June 21, 2021 That watch box is HUGE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: That watch box is HUGE Ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2021 Author Share Posted June 21, 2021 My dew has even risen a half degree or so. Good signs that we aren't mixing out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2021 Author Share Posted June 21, 2021 Ian over on Twitter seems interested enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: SPC bumped southern PA to ENH down to the mason dixon line. so close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 mesos be coming. I feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 46 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: That watch box is HUGE The shear/instability/forcing combo to our northwest is legit and covers a large area. For us, the shear isn't nearly as good, and forcing is weaker, but the CAMs certainly agree on some sort of broken line moving through the areas north of DC. If you're south of DC by more than a county, it's pretty clear that today ain't your day. Even though our shear isn't as good as areas in the ENH, I agree with GeorgeBM that the mid-level flow is good enough to move things along and generate some wind potential. Could be a second round of soakers (with more of a heavy rain than a severe threat) in the evening hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 46 minutes ago, H2O said: mesos be coming. I feel it. Yep! https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1048.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 STW! Currently 95/74. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 1 minute ago, vastateofmind said: STW! I am getting phone alerts for the watch - and seeing it on this Board - before the SPC website even has the watch listed lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 Just now, AdamHLG said: I am getting phone alerts for the watch - and seeing it on this Board - before the SPC website even has the watch listed lol. Now its up on SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 1 minute ago, AdamHLG said: I am getting phone alerts for the watch - and seeing it on this Board - before the SPC website even has the watch listed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2021 Author Share Posted June 21, 2021 Just now, AdamHLG said: I am getting phone alerts for the watch - and seeing it on this Board - before the SPC website even has the watch listed lol. That's pretty standard since the watch outline data is released and coordinated with the local WFOs before the site refreshes generally. It's pretty quick behind, though - already now showing up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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