Eskimo Joe Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: You got one foot in on this one? Or are you going for wedges in MoCo? Yea I got a foot in this one I guess. It's kinda a NW flow event with decent shear. It's been wet recently so we might see more trees down than usual. I honestly could see a sneaky ENH upgrade at midday if things look a bit more certain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 19 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea I got a foot in this one I guess. It's kinda a NW flow event with decent shear. It's been wet recently so we might see more trees down than usual. I honestly could see a sneaky ENH upgrade at midday if things look a bit more certain. The wet ground is a good point. I'm really not sure what to think about this one - it seems the short range guidance is pretty consistent with having a little tongue of instability (despite the late night timing) match up with the shear. But timing is one of the primary things that likes to kill our chances around here (that and being socked in with clouds). I did notice SPC introduced the 2% tor probs with the last outlook update. Not much mention to go with it in the discussion, though. Probably as good of a look as we'll see during the doldrum periods of summer. Funny that you mentioned we'd already gotten beyond our severe season and this event kind of sneaks up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 New SWODY1. Don't sleep on the 50kt jet: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 *Puts weenie hat on* All the rain that fell to the west of the mountains yesterday will help keep dewpoints elevated in those areas when mixing occurs with the strong June sun today. *Takes weenie hat off* But seriously though how much of a factor is that? I'd thing that today's models take this into account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 12z HRRR sends the complex towards us and then pops new cells almost right over the area. But they don't crank until they are a bit east. I like the general idea of the panels, though. Keeps me interested (for now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 The new 12z run of the NAM nest is perhaps an hour or so faster. If we add in that storms tend to clear the area faster than expected in most cases - that could bode well. Still bad timing - but a touch better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Latest mesoanalysis shows ~900j/kg of DCAPE. Fairly confident we get under a watch at some point today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 51 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The new 12z run of the NAM nest is perhaps an hour or so faster. If we add in that storms tend to clear the area faster than expected in most cases - that could bode well. Still bad timing - but a touch better. Yeah, things look better. I'm going to backtrack a bit from my earlier pessimism. There is a pretty clear trend in the guidance for some sfc-based instability to be present when the storms arrive/develop this evening. It shows up well in the individual 00z HREF member CAPE plots. The older runs (labeled -12h) have limited instability over our area, but some of the newer runs (especially NAM nest and ARW) trended higher with sfc-based instability last night. From what I've seen so far, the trend will continue with today's 12z cycle. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Latest mesoanalysis shows ~900j/kg of DCAPE. Fairly confident we get under a watch at some point today. Noticed this as well. Looks decent. 1 minute ago, high risk said: Yeah, things look better. I'm going to backtrack a bit from my earlier pessimism. There is a pretty clear trend in the guidance for some sfc-based instability to be present when the storms arrive/develop this evening. It shows up well in the individual 00z HREF member CAPE plots. The older runs (labeled -12h) have limited instability over our area, but some of the newer runs (especially NAM nest and ARW) trended higher with sfc-based instability last night. From what I've seen so far, the trend will continue with today's 12z cycle. If we can nudge the timing even another hour or so earlier, I'll feel even better. Could be a fun night for lightning pictures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 Latest HRRR might have even sped it up again. Has cells breaking out ahead of the complex during the 1-2z timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 HRRR has been pretty consistent with a short window of discrete cell activity in the immediate DC area ahead of the main line. There is moderate CAPE and nice 0-6km shear as well in this area. This creates a nice MUH streak right thru FFax, DC, and PG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Latest HRRR might have even sped it up again. Has cells breaking out ahead of the complex during the 1-2z timeframe. how about up my way? after 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 Just now, mappy said: how about up my way? after 00z? Same general timeframe on that HRRR run - maybe more like 2z-3z for you. It looks like cells pop ahead of the original complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: Same general timeframe on that HRRR run - maybe more like 2z-3z for you. It looks like cells pop ahead of the original complex. thats perfect. just let me get softball in hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Watching coming shortly to our NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Watching coming shortly to our NW. Yep.. It is posted https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0269.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 No real changes to the 1630z SPC update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Cautiously optimistic that someone sees a good storm today. My logic: Strong sun, no mid level crapola that we have to fight. Solid low level lapse rates Mid level lapse rates, while not amazing, aren't crapola to our NW where storms are firing. Decent shear We've got 1,000 j/kg ML CAPE too. That's good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 MD out for parts of the area? Watch gonna follow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Derecho? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, H2O said: MD out for parts of the area? Watch gonna follow? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0965.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Definitely seeing the towers to our NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Derecho? No 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Derecho? Nope. That's just a line of storms. Perhaps it may become a QLCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 I remember we went through a stretch after 2012 when everyone was calling every line of storms a derecho. That got old quicker than TWC naming winter storms! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Next up, annular derechos. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 Can't be mad at this map.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 17z HRRR looks to focus the threat around Baltimore proper. Kind of amazing how far NWP has come. The complex has mostly been shifting around like a 50 mile or less range in placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 ST watch up for eastern PA and northern DE. Got to assume LWX will get one in the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: ST watch up for eastern PA and northern DE. Got to assume LWX will get one in the next couple hours. Could be a bit later given the timing even. Nighttime severe should make for a heck of a lightshow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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