high risk Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 5 hours ago, A777 said: OTD 9 years ago... Definitely a good SVR day for this area, but none of the tornadoes was particularly strong. I remember leaving work early to get home before things got bad, and the cells had some nice signatures but nothing with major impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 Nothing I've seen this evening has tempered my cautious optimism for Thursday. Good convective signal across the CAMs with modest instability and either respectable or even good low-level shear (depending on your model of choice). Not sure there is enough for a day 2 ENH, but I expect the overnight update to at the least maintain the SLGT with a 5 TOR probability for our area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 2/0/15 on new Day 2 from SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 LWX morning AFD sounds good for severe tomorrow afternoon... would be cool to see a supercell structure again .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... We`ll start out the day on Thursday with low clouds in place, but most of the overnight showers and storms should have progressed off to our north and east along with the leading edge of the low-level moisture advection. Low clouds should gradually rise into a mid- level deck over the course of the morning. As daytime heating ensues, temperatures will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s, which when combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will result in around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE across the area by early afternoon. As the trough slowly moves off to the east, flow aloft will be on the increase, resulting in around 30-40 knots of 0-6 km shear over the area. HREF members are in fairly good agreement about developing storms near or just west of the Blue Ridge during the early afternoon hours, and then progressing those storms off to the east during the afternoon and evening hours. Given the parameter space in place, well organized multicell clusters or some marginal supercell structures may be possible as storms move through the area. Damaging winds look to be the main hazard associated with these storms, prompting a day 2 slight risk from SPC to the east of the Blue Ridge. A marginal risk is in place further to the west, where instability looks to be lesser and areal coverage of storms is expected to be lower. Locations to the east of the Blue Ridge are also under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall from WPC. While storm motions should be relatively fast, precipitable water values are anomalously high (around 1.5-1.8 inches) and unidirectional flow through much of the column with a decent low-level jet could lead to efficient heavy rainfall production and localized training elements. Storms may linger in some spots into Thursday night, and a few additional storms may be possible on Friday as the upper level trough axis swings through. However, the threat for both severe thunderstorms and flash flooding look much lower on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 Mount Holly seems more concerned about hydro issues than severe, given the impressive moisture plume and 2 rounds of convection possibly occurring over the same area. They mention the possibility of a few damaging wind gusts via wet microburst. WPC has the area in a marginal risk for excessive rain Thursday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Mount Holly seems more concerned about hydro issues than severe, given the impressive moisture plume and 2 rounds of convection possibly occurring over the same area. They mention the possibility of a few damaging wind gusts via wet microburst. WPC has the area in a marginal risk for excessive rain Thursday. The breakdowm in the Mount holly AFD was epic ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 25 minutes ago, frd said: The breakdown in the Mount holly AFD was epic ! It really was a good disco. Should be an interesting couple of days of watching/tracking, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 25 minutes ago, frd said: The breakdowm in the Mount holly AFD was epic ! They almost always do a good job with the discussions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 2, 2021 Author Share Posted June 2, 2021 There's enough for Thursday that still looks semi-ok that I'm still watching. I don't think anybody should be expecting a higher end event, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 06z NAM is disappointing unless you're in Carroll and Baltimore counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 2, 2021 Author Share Posted June 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 06z NAM is disappointing unless you're in Carroll and Baltimore counties. There seems to be a lot of junk around to muddy things up earlier in the day. My guess is somewhere gets a severe report or two - but we'll keep waiting for our uber-outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: There seems to be a lot of junk around to muddy things up earlier in the day. My guess is somewhere gets a severe report or two - but we'll keep waiting for our uber-outbreak. We're past the spring climo for good severe weather in these parts. Unless something happens quick, we're probably waiting for tropical season. Last week was probably the event of the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 2, 2021 Author Share Posted June 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: We're past the spring climo for good severe weather in these parts. Unless something happens quick, we're probably waiting for tropical season. Last week was probably the event of the spring. Agreed for the most part. I think there's a few ways we can score still - 1) Super high heat, ring of fire ridge type derecho event (June 2012 esque) 2) A high instability day where a lone cell or two can really blow up and cause a stripe of hail/very damaging wind (but large enough to not be considered super isolated) I'm holding out hope that we can get a strong front still at some point with some sort of EML type airmass and having the warm front nearby but north of us. That's very wishful thinking though. We are probably into summer pulse season for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 2, 2021 Author Share Posted June 2, 2021 The NAM nest is so bad for tomorrow. It would be a close the blinds day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 Latest 3km Nam looking barely any convection, I am not smart enough to know why this happens but it looks bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Latest 3km Nam looking barely any convection, I am not smart enough to know why this happens but it looks bad. Pre-event clouds and showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 2, 2021 Author Share Posted June 2, 2021 That NAM nest run is better for Friday than Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: That NAM nest run is better for Friday than Thursday Yeah...that came out of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 2, 2021 Author Share Posted June 2, 2021 Just now, mattie g said: Yeah...that came out of nowhere. And it's probably wrong too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: And it's probably wrong too. I'm getting flashbacks to this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 2, 2021 Author Share Posted June 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I'm getting flashbacks to this winter I'd be willing to endure 100 degree + 70+ dew weather if it meant we got a legit shot at some area-wide severe to track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 NAMNEST really likes the upper level energy swinging through on Friday, and focuses a couple of UHI tracks over the heart of the metro area. That is not an impossible scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 the kids makeup game from last week is tomorrow. please rain again. thanks. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 2, 2021 Author Share Posted June 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: NAMNEST really likes the upper level energy swinging through on Friday, and focuses a couple of UHI tracks over the heart of the metro area. That is not an impossible scenario. Let it be known - EJ is predicting wedges over the metro area. SPC just has us in general thunder - so we have that going for us for Friday as well... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 40 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: And it's probably wrong too. Most likely scenario, but we've been seeing precip events pop up in the relatively short-range for quite some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 Wait, the 3k Nam has the DC split on Friday, we all know that means it is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 2, 2021 Author Share Posted June 2, 2021 The UH tracks EJ was talking about are focused down in the favored area for TORs. One of the area's mini tornado alleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 GFS and GGEM/RGEM both like Friday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 Maybe we get lucky and we get a two day event before we go dry? Please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 Looks like Friday is our day. SPC has us in their 'meh' category so maybe this is our annual surprise event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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