SnowenOutThere Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 On 5/27/2021 at 12:50 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Getting that May 3, 2021 vibe for the I-64 to I-66 corridor. Expand Don't want to be that person but what happened that day? Did we actually get storms or did it bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 On 5/27/2021 at 12:55 PM, SnowenOutThere said: Don't want to be that person but what happened that day? Did we actually get storms or did it bust? Expand That was the day several cells just north of I-70 interacted with the warm front there and produced several (low-end) tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 On 5/27/2021 at 12:55 PM, SnowenOutThere said: Don't want to be that person but what happened that day? Did we actually get storms or did it bust? Expand There were tornadic supercells that developed in the WVA panhandle and moved along/near the 1-70 corridor in northern MD. Doesn't mean there will be multiple tornadoes in VA tomorrow, of course. Just that conditions look favorable, probably just to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 Meanwhile there is quite the disagreement in surface temps/dewpts locally tomorrow afternoon. Some CAMs w/ temps near 80 and dewpoints well into the 60s(even approaching 70F). The 3kmNAM says temps/dewpts in the 50s. I'd definitely feel better about severe chances in the Fredericksburg - RIC corridor tomorrow. I was actually a little bit surprised to see the SLGT for tomorrow over us instead of to our south. Just my amateur 2 cents. We'll see what actually transpires over the next 24-36 hours, of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 On 5/27/2021 at 1:06 PM, George BM said: Meanwhile there is quite the disagreement in surface temps/dewpts locally tomorrow afternoon. Some CAMs w/ temps near 80 and dewpoints well into the 60s(even approaching 70F). The 3kmNAM says temps/dewpts in the 50s. I'd definitely feel better about severe chances in the Fredericksburg - RIC corridor tomorrow. I was actually a little bit surprised to see the SLGT for tomorrow over us instead of to our south. Just my amateur 2 cents. We'll see what actually transpires over the next 24-36 hours, of course. Expand They heard you! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 27, 2021 Author Share Posted May 27, 2021 That new hi-res FV3 model on TT looks good for tomorrow - too bad it's almost alone - along with the ARW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 Maybe we'll get lucky and somehow bust into a surprise mini tornado outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 27, 2021 Author Share Posted May 27, 2021 On 5/27/2021 at 9:36 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Maybe we'll get lucky and somehow bust into a surprise mini tornado outbreak. Expand Any time we are looking at a warm front - it's always a game of inches. If the warm front blasts through we get warm sectored - but lose the nice wind profiles...but if it stays south we stay socked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 We had a bad house fire started by a lightning strike yesterday in my neighborhood, mean storms for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/27/2021 at 10:49 PM, Kmlwx said: Any time we are looking at a warm front - it's always a game of inches. If the warm front blasts through we get warm sectored - but lose the nice wind profiles...but if it stays south we stay socked in. Expand Ideally we want the warm front somewhere between I-70 and Route 30 in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 I'm just about entirely out for tomorrow for those of us north of I-66 in VA and Rt 50 in MD. There isn't any guidance right now that brings sfc-based instability this far north. In fact, any severe threat is likely to be a good distance south of DC. Definitely expecting some elevated convection up this way, but we're going to end up on the cool side of the boundary. Not looking forward to the possibly low to mid 50s Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Maybe I'll see something over on the eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 3:51 AM, high risk said: I'm just about entirely out for tomorrow for those of us north of I-66 in VA and Rt 50 in MD. There isn't any guidance right now that brings sfc-based instability this far north. In fact, any severe threat is likely to be a good distance south of DC. Definitely expecting some elevated convection up this way, but we're going to end up on the cool side of the boundary. Not looking forward to the possibly low to mid 50s Saturday. Expand The 12z HRRR does get some instability up to about I-66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 1:12 PM, MN Transplant said: The 12z HRRR does get some instability up to about I-66. Expand Rogue cells firing across Carroll and York Counties. Maybe the early morning sun juiced things up a tad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Sun out temp 73 and 63 percent humidity at my location, when will we know if the warm front has made it up to us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 28, 2021 Author Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 2:08 PM, SnowenOutThere said: Sun out temp 73 and 63 percent humidity at my location, when will we know if the warm front has made it up to us? Expand Wind direction is usually a good indicator. Winds look like they are out of the ENE in most of Maryland. Would seem to indicate the warm front isn't there yet. I've had some sun already in the Colesville, MD area. We've seem some cases in the past where even areas just north of the front can get action if something anchors along the front. Today is far from a guarantee on anything for anybody. But I'd definitely want to be south of DC as everyone has been mentioning. Southern MD and the Spotsylvania area might be a good place to be for action. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 1:12 PM, MN Transplant said: The 12z HRRR does get some instability up to about I-66. Expand Yeah, it does, although it tends to overmix and therefore move the warm front north too quickly. Will be interesting to see how far north sfc-based instability can develop this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 28, 2021 Author Share Posted May 28, 2021 After some sun earlier this morning - it's been pretty overcast since. Was able to get the lawn mowed - it doesn't "feel" like severe today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 28, 2021 Author Share Posted May 28, 2021 Honestly - based on wind obs - the front is likely all the way down in central or southern VA still. Louisa, VA area still showing NE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Almost every time, seemingly, we are having where is the warm front obs in these situations, I step outside, immediately am cold, and think “not here”... so..”not here” for balt city, that’s for damn sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 28, 2021 Author Share Posted May 28, 2021 This was the 15z surface map. Not today, folks. I'll be back watching CIPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Surface winds in Staunton and Waynesboro VA have become southerly with clearing and temperatures rising.....a signal for the evening ahead of the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Tornado warning St. Mary's county...the front is moving northward 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Still most likely only going to involve southern MD and central VA but we already have CAPE up into southern MD and it is pooled up against the boundary in central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Dew point up to 63 . Was mid 50s . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Some high clouds, but decent sun making it through. 77/70, up from 73 at 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 It’s 85/64 here in Spotsylvania will close to full sun for the last hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Partly cloudy here in Waldorf area as well, the boundary is nearby. Will we get severe storms tonight or heavier rain totals as the weekend progresses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Eastern shore slower lower def in the warm sector. Will see if some storms crank later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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