r3w Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 Not bad...actually got a pretty good storm here, two actually...I managed to catch up to one as it passed over around Chesapeake Beach, turned around just in time to watch another near my place in Calvert, rare good luck in timing today... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 5, 2021 Author Share Posted May 5, 2021 Nothing significant - but it does look like the 0z ARW, ARW2 and NMM sweep a narrow line across some areas between 16z and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Nothing significant - but it does look like the 0z ARW, ARW2 and NMM sweep a narrow line across some areas between 16z and 18z. This and a chance of small hail on Friday w/ 500mb temps falling to near -25C w/ moderately steep lapse rates is all we have for the time being. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 5, 2021 Author Share Posted May 5, 2021 Mesoanalysis already has some pockets of 500 SBCAPE around. Not expecting anything too severe today. But a stronger cell or two if we can get some heating would be within reason. Mesoanalysis also shows a bit better shear parameters than yesterday. Satellite has some good clearing to the west - still pretty cloudy here in Colesville, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Mesoanalysis already has some pockets of 500 SBCAPE around. Not expecting anything too severe today. But a stronger cell or two if we can get some heating would be within reason. Mesoanalysis also shows a bit better shear parameters than yesterday. Satellite has some good clearing to the west - still pretty cloudy here in Colesville, MD. 77 here, with several peeks of sun within past 30 minutes, and clear blue skies visible in the west....let's see how we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 5, 2021 Author Share Posted May 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: 77 here, with several peeks of sun within past 30 minutes, and clear blue skies visible in the west....let's see how we do. Lots of sunshine here now. Still think along and east of I-95 is the play here. And not anything too severe. After @George BM - mentioned Friday I took a look - does look promising for some small hail that day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 5, 2021 Author Share Posted May 5, 2021 One thing that may kill chances - dews are already falling pretty close-in. Martinsburg, Winchester and Leesburg are all already into the upper 50s. GAI is still at 66 but the drop is probably starting there as well. It's possible that line going through Baltimore is the show today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 5, 2021 Author Share Posted May 5, 2021 Dewpoint down to 55 at JYO. If anything else is going to pop it'll probably be with that line of activity coming through the higher terrain now. Dews are still 66 at ADW, DCA, CGS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 Nice downpour and dark clouds moved thru about 20 mins ago...Didnt notice any lightning or anything else tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2021/md0543.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 5, 2021 Author Share Posted May 5, 2021 23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2021/md0543.html Surprised it's even at 20%. This is a 5% kind of day IMO. At least until you get east of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 Question for the mets on here, how do you determine mean storm motion? I know you can get it on watch boxes, but how do you determine that beforehand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 SVR issues with perhaps a small appendage just NW of Aquia Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 Something wicked this way comes. Not really, though -- that was about 10 minutes ago, and the dark clouds in advance proved to be more bark than bite, as we're just getting a breezy hard shower right now, with a couple peeks of sun already on the backside of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boviscopophobic Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 Humor post: viewed this wedge lookalike from south of Warrenton yesterday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 6, 2021 Share Posted May 6, 2021 11 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Lots of sunshine here now. Still think along and east of I-95 is the play here. And not anything too severe. After @George BM - mentioned Friday I took a look - does look promising for some small hail that day. Yeah, Friday is kinda interesting. There isn't much CAPE at all in the forecast soundings, but a 500 mb temperature of -25C is certainly worthy of attention....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 Someone in a discord server chased on Tuesday and bagged this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 10, 2021 Author Share Posted May 10, 2021 Just a very rudimentary analysis - but we are cooked for a while it seems on severe potential (outside of a sneaky surprise or an isolated threat). Looking at the CIPS run from overnight, most of the US is devoid of major swaths of severe analog probs through the 120hr mark. Then...the extended range does show some promise - but mainly to our west and south and very late in the run. Looking at the GFS - the juicy dewpoints do try to make a run at us but get shunted largely to the south and then we get dry dewpoints again. Excellent look for comfortable weather through the run...not so nice if you're straining at the bit for more storm chances. I could see this being a bit of a rubber band style pattern - we go weeks and weeks with not a lot to track - and then something changes and bam we go on a heater for a week or two (or longer). Either that or we just have a very, very quiet later spring/early summer severe season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 23 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Just a very rudimentary analysis - but we are cooked for a while it seems on severe potential (outside of a sneaky surprise or an isolated threat). Looking at the CIPS run from overnight, most of the US is devoid of major swaths of severe analog probs through the 120hr mark. Then...the extended range does show some promise - but mainly to our west and south and very late in the run. Looking at the GFS - the juicy dewpoints do try to make a run at us but get shunted largely to the south and then we get dry dewpoints again. Excellent look for comfortable weather through the run...not so nice if you're straining at the bit for more storm chances. I could see this being a bit of a rubber band style pattern - we go weeks and weeks with not a lot to track - and then something changes and bam we go on a heater for a week or two (or longer). Either that or we just have a very, very quiet later spring/early summer severe season. I remember how quiet 2018 was for much of the spring. But then we got into an active severe period in mid-May (especially May 12th- 15th). Hopefully we do something like that this year as opposed to last year when we just flipped to weak shear summer. 2012 was also quiet before the end of May that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 11, 2021 Author Share Posted May 11, 2021 The low dewpoints depicted mostly throughout the run lately on the GFS have been impressive. Other than a short window of 60s dews in the middle of the run (near the 180hr mark) the dewpoints remain low for this time of year. Very non-soupy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 14, 2021 Author Share Posted May 14, 2021 Extended CIPS at the 312hr mark looks much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 16, 2021 Author Share Posted May 16, 2021 CIPS is showing some signal around the 240hr mark. Something to keep an eye on. Way out there, though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 lots of thunder yesterday afternoon 1pmish. was at a birthday party in New Freedom, PA when a cell formed almost overhead. Constant rumbles. Then another from the south formed near my house and moved northeast, thunder with that one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 2 hours ago, mappy said: lots of thunder yesterday afternoon 1pmish. was at a birthday party in New Freedom, PA when a cell formed almost overhead. Constant rumbles. Then another from the south formed near my house and moved northeast, thunder with that one too. Yeah, it was odd, as there was only like a 20% chance of "scattered showers" forecasted, but skies grew pretty dark to our north around that time, and even here in NoVA I heard a rumble of thunder or two with just a few sprinkles. Radar definitely looked more vigorous up your way and in southern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 29 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: Yeah, it was odd, as there was only like a 20% chance of "scattered showers" forecasted, but skies grew pretty dark to our north around that time, and even here in NoVA I heard a rumble of thunder or two with just a few sprinkles. Radar definitely looked more vigorous up your way and in southern PA. I hoped my power washing would have brought the rain. Nothing but a couple sprinkles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 6 hours ago, H2O said: I hoped my power washing would have brought the rain. Nothing but a couple sprinkles Maybe it was the combination of my power washing as well, which I FINALLY finished at 7 p.m. Saturday night. Can finally cross that annual though despised task off for another year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 18, 2021 Author Share Posted May 18, 2021 CIPS signal at 168hr 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 26 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: CIPS signal at 168hr we could use the damn rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 7 hours ago, Kmlwx said: CIPS signal at 168hr Would be nice to see/hear some good storms... interestingly no mention in the SPC 4-8 day OTLK of anything nearby or even in the LWX AFD this morning... besides maybe on Sunday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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