mappy Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 hazy blue skies this morning under full sun. would love some more boomers. ill pass on tornado warned storms though 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: hazy blue skies this morning under full sun. would love some more boomers. ill pass on tornado warned storms though Just send them over to Herndon, VA. I can PM you the specific location if you'd like. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Just now, George BM said: Just send them over to Herndon, VA. I can PM you the specific location if you'd like. I agree but it is crazy humid, I do think that we need the rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I agree but it is crazy humid, I do think that we need the rain though. Yeah, it's gotten a little bit on the dry side here lately. Meanwhile, looking at satellite loops it looks like sunshine should remain ample at least into the early afternoon hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Congrats Lynchburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2021 Author Share Posted May 4, 2021 The NAM nest has come around to showing some activity this PM now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: The NAM nest has come around to showing some activity this PM now. Big step up from the 06z which showed nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2021 Author Share Posted May 4, 2021 Further...the super long range HRRR has some nasty cells mainly to the south and east tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Wouldn’t mind some good Rt. 29 storms today. I’d even consider chasing if they happened after 5:00pm or so. I’ll have to see how the timing works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: So hard to tell if that is a tornado, or just a really low wall cloud. No doubt there was damage from the cell. I think LWX said they'd be out there today to survey and see what they find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2021 Author Share Posted May 4, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: So hard to tell if that is a tornado, or just a really low wall cloud. No doubt there was damage from the cell. I think LWX said they'd be out there today to survey and see what they find. Yeah those images are potato quality. I always just wait for the survey. Although - based on the radar presentation I'd assume something along the TOR warned path will be found to have been a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2021 Author Share Posted May 4, 2021 13z HRRR is a little less robust until you get south of DC and then SE of DC. But still a good signal for something popping this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Yeah those images are potato quality. I always just wait for the survey. Although - based on the radar presentation I'd assume something along the TOR warned path will be found to have been a tornado. Agreed. Def think they will find something out in WV, and maybe again east of Frederick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 21 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The NAM nest has come around to showing some activity this PM now. Yeah, trends are definitely good, and the full 12z suite of CAMs is quite encouraging. That said, despite some decent mid-level flow and inverted-V profiles, low level winds in the forecast soundings are quite weak. So, I'm enthusiastic about stronger storms in the area later today, but I think that not going any higher than MRGL right now makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 lol was coming to post the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2021 Author Share Posted May 4, 2021 Mid-level lapse rates are better than we normally see around here. That should check at least one box for @Eskimo Joe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Mid-level lapse rates are better than we normally see around here. That should check at least one box for @Eskimo Joe True, but shear is kinda weak and we're seeing a ton of crap clouds bubbling up so it'll probably offset it. I know, I know, deb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2021 Author Share Posted May 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: True, but shear is kinda weak and we're seeing a ton of crap clouds bubbling up so it'll probably offset it. I know, I know, deb. And of course on the latest mesoanalysis update they've come down a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: True, but shear is kinda weak and we're seeing a ton of crap clouds bubbling up so it'll probably offset it. I know, I know, deb. What sort of storms do you think we will be looking at I personally think that pulse types storms are the most likely with supercells not all too likely due to the low shear. Also would this sort of environment enable microbursts because they are pulse type storms, to be honest I have no idea what sort of environment makes them likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: What sort of storms do you think we will be looking at I personally think that pulse types storms are the most likely with supercells not all too likely due to the low shear. Also would this sort of environment enable microbursts because they are pulse type storms, to be honest I have no idea what sort of environment makes them likely? Generic pulse storms with a few flood or severe warnings for wet microbursts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Slighted for the 1630z update w/ mention of the remnant MCV currently in extreme SW VA potentially spreading multicellular clusters of storms across the SLGT area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2021 Author Share Posted May 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, George BM said: Slighted for the 1630z update w/ mention of the remnant MCV currently in extreme SW VA potentially spreading multicellular clusters of storms across the SLGT area. Now we countdown to the pity MD and potentially the pity watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r3w Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 15Z HRRR looks okay for MD (my area planted squarely in the SLGT) but our luck has been pretty sour so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Virginia meso'd. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0526.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Decent segment in WV coming into LWX radar focus now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2021 Author Share Posted May 4, 2021 Will be interesting to see where SPC coordinates the blue box. Wouldn't be surprised to see some of the Maryland counties included despite the meso discussion being primarily for VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Decent segment in WV coming into LWX radar focus now... That cluster might be the main player for today. It's already got it's act together and it's not in the best environment right now. Might see a repeat of last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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