Kmlwx Posted May 2, 2021 Author Share Posted May 2, 2021 The parent NAM is really going gung-ho on Tuesday afternoon. Even the sim reflectivity looks good on the NAM nest but for mainly Virginia. There are some hefty SARS analogs showing up on the parent NAM as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 26 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The parent NAM is really going gung-ho on Tuesday afternoon. Even the sim reflectivity looks good on the NAM nest but for mainly Virginia. There are some hefty SARS analogs showing up on the parent NAM as well. Really crossing my fingers that we don't get our infamous morning convection to muck things up and ruin the steep MLLRs. If any early morning convection immediately to our west and/or over us is sparse enough or, preferably, nonexistent then later in the day Tuesday could be fun for at least some (Decent CAPE and MLLRs, etc.) Oddly though the SPC doesn't even have DC proper within the general thunder risk for Tuesday (Day 3)! I wonder if we get a rare Day 3 update this afternoon? I mean surely you'd think we'd at least be in a MRGL risk for Tuesday now all things considered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 2, 2021 Author Share Posted May 2, 2021 1 hour ago, George BM said: Really crossing my fingers that we don't get our infamous morning convection to muck things up and ruin the steep MLLRs. If any early morning convection immediately to our west and/or over us is sparse enough or, preferably, nonexistent then later in the day Tuesday could be fun for at least some (Decent CAPE and MLLRs, etc.) Oddly though the SPC doesn't even have DC proper within the general thunder risk for Tuesday (Day 3)! I wonder if we get a rare Day 3 update this afternoon? I mean surely you'd think we'd at least be in a MRGL risk for Tuesday now all things considered. Our best events come when SPC plays catchup Remember...we were only in a 5% area for most of the day on the 2012 derecho day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 The 12z parent NAM giveth, the 00z taketh away.... Not very excited about Tuesday now, based on what I've seen in the evening runs. I'm on board with the MRGL for Monday - looks like some stronger convection later in the day (especially north of DC), in an environment that isn't great but isn't awful either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 8 hours ago, high risk said: The 12z parent NAM giveth, the 00z taketh away.... Not very excited about Tuesday now, based on what I've seen in the evening runs. I'm on board with the MRGL for Monday - looks like some stronger convection later in the day (especially north of DC), in an environment that isn't great but isn't awful either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2021 Author Share Posted May 3, 2021 There have been some decent sim reflectivity panels for this afternoon and evening. But yeah - tomorrow looks kind of cooked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: There have been some decent sim reflectivity panels for this afternoon and evening. But yeah - tomorrow looks kind of cooked. Getting some clearing and sun now... lets see how this afternoon unfolds. Some storms would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 12z NAM has changed its mind to liking tomorrow based off the soundings instead of Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Not totally cooked tomorrow -- yet. There will be subsidence aloft for a good portion of the day and a remnant EML, so it will remain capped to convection for most of the day. Most likely evolution, if it happens, would be initiation over higher terrain and on the leading edge of height falls on the backside of the shortwave ridge. An old MCV from overnight convection to the west couldn't hurt either. There's ample instability and moderate low-to-mid level shear, so we're just looking for a suitable trigger. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2021 Author Share Posted May 3, 2021 Definitely a lot of bouncing around going on with the NAM and NAM nest. The sim reflectivity looks decent for tomorrow on the NAM nest now - even looks okay for Wednesday. Could we pull the rare 3 in a row for storms? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 13 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Definitely a lot of bouncing around going on with the NAM and NAM nest. The sim reflectivity looks decent for tomorrow on the NAM nest now - even looks okay for Wednesday. Could we pull the rare 3 in a row for storms? Gotta actually rain on Day 1 first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Day 2 MRGL on 1730 SPC OTLK... was nothing at the early Day 2. 0/5/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Hmmm Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE...ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible Tuesday from the lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateau regions. This will include a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... The severe weather forecast for Tuesday remains complex with lingering uncertainty. Most of the forecast changes for this cycle are peripheral/modest for the Slight and Enhanced risk areas. The Marginal risk area has been expanded quite a bit to the east, from the South Carolina to Delmarva coast. On a broader scale, an upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest to southwest TX/northeast Mexico will migrate eastward, becoming oriented from the upper Great Lakes to GA by Wednesday morning. Several smaller shortwave perturbations are forecast to eject northeastward across parts of the lower MS Valley to the lower Great Lakes vicinity as well as portions of the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. At the surface, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place, with mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints as far north as the TN Valley and into the Carolinas/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will spread further north into the lower Great Lakes eastward toward the I-95 corridor from Philadelphia into southern NJ. Meanwhile, an EML characterized by steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7-8 C/km will advect eastward across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley, aiding in strong destabilization with MLCAPE values forecast around 2000-3000 J/kg. Weaker, but still sufficient lapse rates will exist across parts of the Ohio Valley eastward to the mid-Atlantic coast. A belt of increasing southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread much of the lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the main upper trough, providing further support for organized convection. As a result, a broad area of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across a large part of the southeastern US into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast... The greatest/most concentrated severe threat on Tuesday appears to extend parts of AR/LA eastward into TN/AL/GA. Some uncertainty continues across this region as ongoing convection is expected over parts of the area during the morning hours as an MCS spreads eastward across the Ohio Valley and perhaps parts of the TN Valley. How this system from the Day 1/Monday period evolves will have some impact on how further convection develops later in the morning/afternoon as the airmass recovers ahead of the main surface cold front spreading southeast through the afternoon. Little capping is expected across the area and pockets of stronger heating will likely result in early development of thunderstorm clusters across parts of MS/AL/GA. While effective shear will initially be modest, this should rapidly increase through the morning. This initial activity will pose a threat for all severe hazards, including hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. By late morning/early afternoon, convection is expected to develop along the surface cold front from parts of AR into far east TX. Some of this activity will likely remain cellular initially amid supercell wind profiles. With midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8 C/km this activity could produce significant hail, in addition to damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. With time, stronger forcing and boundary-parallel deep layer flow should result in upscale growth into bowing/linear segments as convection shifts eastward across MS/LA and into AL during the afternoon/evening. This will increase the potential for more widespread damaging gusts, and favorable low level speed shear should continue to support mesovortex tornado potential along the line. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... A moist boundary layer (low to mid 60s F dewpoints) beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will be in place on Tuesday amid 35-50 kt 850-700 mb west/southeasterly flow. MLCAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg are forecast as pockets of strong heating result in steepening low level lapse rates. Low level flow will remain weak, but marginal supercell wind profiles should support isolated to scattered organized thunderstorm development during the afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer, with inverted-v low level thermodynamic profiles indicate potential for locally damaging gusts. Some of the stronger cells also could produce marginally sever hail. Some guidance suggests that the morning MCS over parts of OH/TN Valley may continue eastward and spread into parts of VA/NC/SC. If an organized convective system can be maintained, this could increase damaging wind potential during the afternoon/evening and an upgrade to Slight risk could be needed in later outlooks. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 I'm kind of torn. I just seeded so I don't want heavy rain, but I like severe weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 yay pity MD to our west lol https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0494.html Mesoscale Discussion 0494 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021 Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Ohio into West Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031847Z - 032045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of the stronger storms may pose a localized severe risk through the afternoon hours. A damaging gust or two are possible and a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Given the sparse nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually deepened and become more widespread across portions of the Ohio Valley as a mid-level vort max traverses the region. Pockets of insolation have allowed for marginal destabilization of the boundary layer, with around 250-400 J/kg MLCAPE currently realized (per latest Mesoanalysis). 18Z PBZ and RLX VWPs depict considerable veering of the sfc-500 m winds, with modest 0-3km speed shear all contributing to 150-300 m2/s2 0-3km SRH, with 0-1km SRH values occasionally exceeding 200 m2/s2. Nonetheless, upper support is expected to remain modest, with low and mid-level lapse rates likely to remain below 6.5 C/km across most locations. While the favorable shear environment would support a damaging gust or a brief tornado with a stronger storm, the marginal instability is expected to limit the severe threat. Given the very sparse and brief nature of any severe threat that can materialize, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/03/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...ILN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Been staring at radar all afternoon waiting for something to fire up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 26 minutes ago, WeatherShak said: Been staring at radar all afternoon waiting for something to fire up! I know, right? To your earlier point -- it is definitely muggy out there, still. Gonna miss a damn good chance to rain if it doesn't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 (5:30pm) That's a really interesting storm just northwest of Winchester.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2021 Author Share Posted May 3, 2021 23 minutes ago, high risk said: (5:30pm) That's a really interesting storm just northwest of Winchester.... It's got the supercell look for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Surprised the WV storm isn’t tornado warned with that radar presentation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Surprised the WV storm isn’t tornado warned with that radar presentation There is one now ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 626 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Central Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 700 PM EDT. * At 626 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Corporation Of Ranson, or over Charles Town, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Harpers Ferry around 640 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Shenandoah Junction, Bolivar, Pleasantville, Neersville, Millville, Bakerton and Halltown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 626 PM EDT MON MAY 03 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0600 PM TSTM WND DMG RIDGEWAY 39.30N 78.07W 05/03/2021 BERKELEY WV 911 CALL CENTER REPORT OF DOWNED TREES AND A STRUCTURE COLLAPSE NEAR MCGLYNN LANE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 I am the blue circle. Watching this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 That velocity/storm presentation looks legit. Someone on a forum I follow was nerding out about this wind profile, can’t read ‘em myself but maybe others could translate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Surprised the WV storm isn’t tornado warned with that radar presentation I should work for NWS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Just now, wxtrix said: NWS has confirmed the tornado Yeah that radar looked pretty textbook with that hook with a ball on the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 645 PM EDT MON MAY 03 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0644 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N RANSON 39.31N 77.86W 05/03/2021 JEFFERSON WV 911 CALL CENTER *** 1 INJ *** STRUCTURE COLLAPSE ALONG THE 200 BLOCK OF 16TH AVE. IN RANSON, WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 0504 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0545 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021 Areas affected...Portions of Maryland...Virginia...and Washington DC. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032245Z - 032345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated risk of damaging winds or a brief tornado will be possible over the next couple of hours along a diffuse warm front. A weather watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery and storm reports showed a small supeprcell over Jefferson Co. Maryland had intensified over the last 45 minutes. SPC mesoanalysis indicates this storm is located along a diffuse surface warm front stretching from eastern Ohio toward the northern Chesapeake Bay. To the south of the front, surface temperatures in the mid 70s F and dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s F are support MUCAPE of 800-1200 J/kg. Enhanced mid-level flow ahead of a shortwave trough across the Carolinas is contributing to 30-40 kt of effective shear as analyzed by local VAD VWPs. Observational trend suggest that severe weather in the form of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this storm as it tracks east along the front over the next 1 to 2 hours. Given the limited spatial area and expected longevity of any severe risk as the storm moves into cooler air near the bay, a weather watch is unlikely. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 05/03/2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 650 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Southwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 730 PM EDT. * At 650 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Harpers Ferry, or near Shepherdstown, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Frederick, Harry Grove Stadium, Ballenger Creek, Brunswick, Walkersville, Braddock Heights, Clover Hill, Jefferson, Buckeystown, Rosemont, Rohrersville, Burkittsville, Gapland, Brownsville, Bloomfield, Clifton, Arnoldtown, Utica, Petersville and Bolivar. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: That velocity/storm presentation looks legit. Someone on a forum I follow was nerding out about this wind profile, can’t read ‘em myself but maybe others could translate. @high risk can explain better but you see a curved hodograph on the left indicating supercell potential and very strong helicity (SRH on the right) in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Looks like a nice tornado profile if you have the other ingredients (moisture, instability, so on). More on hodographs here: https://www.weather.gov/media/lmk/soo/Hodographs_Wind-Shear.pdf 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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