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OBS and nowcast Monday Feb 15 - Noon Tuesday Feb 16 2021


wdrag
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1 hour ago, Joe Slezak said:

Thanks Walt! It's Joe Slezak. Not sure if you remember me. Keep me updated on obs! 

I remember: WX works now?

431A: Still zr-  31.5. Just 54 meters out in our rural coop at 430A, power outages larger Warren County.  everything solid ice here.  Has to be delays in the County, especially north. 

Post event summary: SPC HREF exhibits the continuing cold bias and too robust FRAM output until within 12 hours of the event.There fore too far southeast. and too heavy not rewarding good verification but ice did occur e PA much of nw NJ and all I84 corridor. Still a few reports to come, I'm sure. I think the GFSv16 did a good job flagging 0.1-0.4" FRAM accretion where it occurred-forecast. 

 

444A: 32.0F  melting should begin shortly.   Ice via ASOS radial at 4A looks like an estimated  BDL .04, IJD 0.2,  POU .07, FWN 0.11 which matches my estimate at 740'MSL, MPO near 1/4".  High terrain accrete seems best.  

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37/37/W-NW3/RN and Fog 

It poured again for a little while and now the fog is building quickly. As it gets light out I can see that there is a huge amount of standing water blocked in by snow and ice banks, all of my gutters are overflowing partially because of ice on the roof but also because the leaders are likely frozen under the snow and the water has no place to go and the storm drains in the street are blocked so the neighbors downhill are getting soaked. 

edit: All of the piles of salt on the roads are getting washed away. While it will be good for most of us and our cars it will be no good for those living downhill and downstream as it piles up in their yards and the environment. 

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An image of the Paper Birch in front of our Wantage NJ home at 715A, and the white pine in our backyard at 645AM.Eestimated .15" Radial Ice.  Last 32F wa about 440AM. Melting now but plenty to go.   Have no idea why these don't post without a download?

F7883524-CAEA-47E0-B429-70EA6280F338.heicF7883524-CAEA-47E0-B429-70EA6280F338.heic

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The value of giving yourself wiggle room on perfect prognosis. 

Added the actual 1157Z obs that got into the verification for 12z/16.  Note a touch colder in some of sheltered interior very difficult to handle the gradient.  Then the EC op from 00z/16 and GFS/NAM ops from 06z/16 (their 00z versions were similar).  A degree or two can make a large difference and EC was just too warm at 12z in the strong temp gradient except southern Manhattan heliport (elevated) and JFK eastward. 

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Screen Shot 2021-02-16 at 6.55.37 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-02-16 at 6.56.14 AM.png

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

The value of giving yourself wiggle room on perfect prognosis. 

Added the actual 1157Z obs that got into the verification for 12z/16.  Note a touch colder in some of sheltered interior very difficult to handle the gradient.  Then the EC op from 00z/16 and GFS/NAM ops from 06z/16 (their 00z versions were similar).  A degree or two can make a large difference and EC was just too warm at 12z in the strong temp gradient except southern Manhattan heliport (elevated) and JFK eastward. 

Screen Shot 2021-02-16 at 6.58.07 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-02-16 at 6.58.35 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-02-16 at 6.55.04 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-02-16 at 6.55.37 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-02-16 at 6.56.14 AM.png

Nice maps, ECM was way too warm NW of the city. GFS/NAM seemed like they did a pretty good job with the coastal front 

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Nice maps, ECM was way too warm NW of the city. GFS/NAM seemed like they did a pretty good job with the coastal front 

Yes I agree... shows just how close we came to having a bigger - more extensive problem. I see some decent power outages ne PA, se NYS, just on outside the edge of subforum.  I think also, in the tend, the RGEM was best at indicating icing holding to 12z Pocs/se NYS High Point NJ. Took awhile for the RGEM to come to that conclusion. 

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2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Yes I agree... shows just how close we came to having a bigger - more extensive problem. I see some decent power outages ne PA, se NYS, just on outside the edge of subforum.  I think also, in the tend, the RGEM was best at indicating icing holding to 12z Pocs/se NYS High Point NJ. Took awhile for the RGEM to come to that conclusion. 

Yea if we had a strong well positioned high probably woulda been a way different outcome (although in this case probably better off this way)  

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