purduewx80 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Actually some indications of waterspouts in the meso lows over the lake on TMDW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Oh jeez, lol Why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Actually some indications of waterspouts in the meso lows over the lake on TMDW. I recall a fluke tornado warning in SW Michigan many years ago with one edit: may have been lake effect rain/convection in the fall and not snow though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btcs31 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 28 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/field/?cam=fieldmuseum The lake has disappeared from view. Snow coming inland now. Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: That was a great HRRR run for SE MI widespread 12"+ Straight up buried 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, MIstorm97 said: Straight up buried Cheeks Clapped! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 We are getting close to nowcast time, but the NAM has shifted NW a tick as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 At some point IWX has to put the rest of their CWA in a WSW. Otherwise this will be the most impressive advisory I’ve been in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Band getting close to the shore here now, flakes on the increase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Down to flurries here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: Down to flurries here on cue: WILL LIKELY SEE A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS NORTHEAST. HOWEVER SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER SCALE DYNAMICS SHIFT OVERHEAD, 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Escalatedquickly.gif Earthcam now just white 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Field cam a white out action picking up at Wrigleyville (northside) https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/wrigleyville/?cam=wrigleyville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Glass from STL, really interesting disco: Light snow with pockets of moderate snow cover the majority of the CWA early this morning. This snow is occurring in response to a broad region of mid level frontogenetic forcing and weak isentropic upglide, with a little added help from a weak vort max moving across MO at this time. Light snow wavering in intensity is expected to persist through mid-morning and could briefly end in some areas. The ongoing winter storm will really get going after around 15z with the greatest overall intensity centered on this afternoon. Guidance is all in good agreement showing a classical evolution per conceptual models as the upper trof currently over the southern Plains ejects northeastward and becomes negatively tilted, leading to a deepening surface low tracking from the north- central GOM through the TN Valley. Strong large scale forcing associated with the upper trof, stout mid-level frontogenetic forcing associated with a cyclonically turning branch of the warm conveyor belt, and coupled ULJs will lead to robust ascent across southeast and east central MO into west central IL. This strong ascent within a deep dendritic growth zone will result in high snowfall rates and heavy snow during the aforementioned time frame. The HREF, HRRR, and RAP all are showing snowfall rates at times of 1+ in/hr. I`m in new territory estimating the SLRs as never in my 30+ years forecasting have I dealt with a major storm with this cold of an airmass. I am using 20:1 or greater and they increase with time. This results in additional snowfall from 600 am today through midnight of 5-9 inches within the winter storm warning area, the highest amounts along an axis from near Fredericktown to Salem IL. This corridor is good agreement with well established techniques from climatologies by Goree & Younkin, Browne & Younkin, and Gosselin using the track of the 850 mb low center. The model consensus of this 850 mb low track is from central AR skirting the bootheel to just north of Louisville. Gusty winds with the tightening pressure gradient and the light fluffy nature of the snow will bring concerns for blowing and drifting. To top this off we remain in the throes of bitterly cold air and dangerous wind chills. Travel is not recommended. If you become stranded it could result in a life-threatening situation. Outside of the warning area, a solid 2-5 inch snowfall looks in order. The current winter storm warning and advisory look on target. The storm system should completely exit and area by 06-09z with bitterly cold air and dangerous wind chills continuing into Tuesday morning. A few record lows may be possible Tuesday morning and the record low maxes today will again be shattered. The wind chill warning and advisory in effect until noon Tuesday looks good as well. Tuesday is still looking like a down day with weak surface high pressure dominating. Very cold temperatures will continue. There could be some flurries around in the morning due to lingering stratus. Glass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Escalatedquickly.gif Earthcam now just white From where I'm at a bit out West (and a bit higher up in elevation than the O'Hare and downtown area) I can see the lake effect clouds clearly (while the sun shines here). Hope you guys in the city get the big daddy expected. I'll watch from the cheap seats out West and hope a favorable wind drops an inch or two of added fluff! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Lake shore drive in trouble 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I wonder what model TWC uses. They are showing 5-8" for Indy, with the heaviest snow confined to Northern Kentucky and Ohio. 8-12" for Louisville and Cincinnati. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Wave last night did better than I thought. Easily 2in here. Deformation band looks to be developing nicely down south. Upper low looks lovely on water vapor taking on negative tilt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Dalfy said: Glass from STL, really interesting disco: Light snow with pockets of moderate snow cover the majority of the CWA early this morning. This snow is occurring in response to a broad region of mid level frontogenetic forcing and weak isentropic upglide, with a little added help from a weak vort max moving across MO at this time. Light snow wavering in intensity is expected to persist through mid-morning and could briefly end in some areas. The ongoing winter storm will really get going after around 15z with the greatest overall intensity centered on this afternoon. Guidance is all in good agreement showing a classical evolution per conceptual models as the upper trof currently over the southern Plains ejects northeastward and becomes negatively tilted, leading to a deepening surface low tracking from the north- central GOM through the TN Valley. Strong large scale forcing associated with the upper trof, stout mid-level frontogenetic forcing associated with a cyclonically turning branch of the warm conveyor belt, and coupled ULJs will lead to robust ascent across southeast and east central MO into west central IL. This strong ascent within a deep dendritic growth zone will result in high snowfall rates and heavy snow during the aforementioned time frame. The HREF, HRRR, and RAP all are showing snowfall rates at times of 1+ in/hr. I`m in new territory estimating the SLRs as never in my 30+ years forecasting have I dealt with a major storm with this cold of an airmass. I am using 20:1 or greater and they increase with time. This results in additional snowfall from 600 am today through midnight of 5-9 inches within the winter storm warning area, the highest amounts along an axis from near Fredericktown to Salem IL. This corridor is good agreement with well established techniques from climatologies by Goree & Younkin, Browne & Younkin, and Gosselin using the track of the 850 mb low center. The model consensus of this 850 mb low track is from central AR skirting the bootheel to just north of Louisville. Gusty winds with the tightening pressure gradient and the light fluffy nature of the snow will bring concerns for blowing and drifting. To top this off we remain in the throes of bitterly cold air and dangerous wind chills. Travel is not recommended. If you become stranded it could result in a life-threatening situation. Outside of the warning area, a solid 2-5 inch snowfall looks in order. The current winter storm warning and advisory look on target. The storm system should completely exit and area by 06-09z with bitterly cold air and dangerous wind chills continuing into Tuesday morning. A few record lows may be possible Tuesday morning and the record low maxes today will again be shattered. The wind chill warning and advisory in effect until noon Tuesday looks good as well. Tuesday is still looking like a down day with weak surface high pressure dominating. Very cold temperatures will continue. There could be some flurries around in the morning due to lingering stratus. Glass Lmao, that is Sebenste worthy right there. Best AFD I've seen in years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Thinking maybe 8-10" for Toronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CANNOTDIVIDEBY0 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Fine, I finally made an account. I'm 1.5 miles off the lake on the north side. I figured I'd take some pictures while I work from home. Mild snow for now! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioWX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, Snownado said: I wonder what model TWC uses. They are showing 5-8" for Indy, with the heaviest snow confined to Northern Kentucky and Ohio. 8-12" for Louisville and Cincinnati. I'm questioning if 8-12" will occur in and around Cincy with the increasing possibility of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Vis under quarter mile now, gonna do my best to measure rates in this band over next hour 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 My view of Lake Michigan looking toward Chicago from Racine. This is way more impressive in person. Really incredible. So primed! 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cutlew Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The view down Halsted right now, went from flurries to SN/SN+ in 20 minutes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btcs31 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Earthcam downtown is incredible. Literally can't see the trees directly in front of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Car safely moved out of snow tow zone, ready 2 go 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 My wife says total whiteout downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Jelly of the LES. Love the intense events. Better be some pics and vids of pure rippage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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