miamarsden8 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Cuteirishgirl25 said: Live by the nam die by the nam! I want to see the gfs and euro before I panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, miamarsden8 said: I want to see the gfs and euro before I panic. Aren't we getting to the point where the short range models are the only models to look at ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Nice to see our former city of residence get a good one. Has a shot to dethrone everything since 2/13/2007 for them. Should at least rank up there with things like 12/15/07, 3/24/2013, 1/5/2014. Yeah. First foot + storm since V-Day 07 looking very possible. Always root for our former home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago WX said: Yeah. First foot + storm since V-Day 07 looking very possible. Always root for our former home. My hopes are high over in OKK too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The WRF-ARW is an ORD destroyer and gives[mention=14]Hoosier[/mention] some love. There's enough of a signal across the high res models and some of the ops I think to buy into a corridor of potentially well over 12" totals from synoptic+lake enhancement. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: My hopes are high over in OKK too. You're sitting pretty Jim. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The WRF-ARW is an ORD destroyer and gives@Hoosier some love. There's enough of a signal across the high res models and some of the ops I think to buy into a corridor of well over 12" totals from synoptic+lake enhancement. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Tuesday is a wild card to me, especially as we get into afternoon and evening. Parameters are still good enough to support a respectable snow band then, but how it behaves is a bit of a mystery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, RCNYILWX said: The WRF-ARW is an ORD destroyer and gives@Hoosier some love. There's enough of a signal across the high res models and some of the ops I think to buy into a corridor of well over 12" totals from synoptic+lake enhancement. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk How does the storm track impact the lake effect in NE IL? Is it a case of further west of the track the further the lake effect or would that just mean the same general amount of lake effect but greater totals from the "system snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 My current thinking is a widespread 6-10” across most of S ON, including the Windsor-London-KW-GTA corridor. Local amounts up to 12”. Hamilton-Niagara area is 8-12” with local amounts up to 15” given lake enhancement and upslope flow. Wind gusts ~40-60km/hr will create blizzard like conditions tomorrow night. Peak snowfall rates >1”/hr likely for several hours tomorrow night. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The WRF-ARW is an ORD destroyer and gives@Hoosier some love. There's enough of a signal across the high res models and some of the ops I think to buy into a corridor of well over 12" totals from synoptic+lake enhancement. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I buy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: My hopes are high over in OKK too. Get out early to enjoy it. This one could get scary out in the stix Monday night. I'm gonna be out with an extra 300 lbs in the back of the truck but don't think I'll venture too far from the homestead the later it gets Monday night. Just want to see if the drifting pans out like I think it will. Got a feeling its going to be Sahara desert dunes in the country lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Its possible the models may be too "warm" for this storm if you can believe that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchener poster Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said: My current thinking is a widespread 6-10” across most of S ON, including the Windsor-London-KW-GTA corridor. Local amounts up to 12”. Hamilton-Niagara area is 8-12” with local amounts up to 15” given lake enhancement and upslope flow. Wind gusts ~40-60km/hr will create blizzard like conditions tomorrow night. Peak snowfall rates >1”/hr likely for several hours tomorrow night. Should be a nice storm. I thought this would completely miss us a few days ago. I think we will have the deepest snowpack of the season after this. Another possible shot towards the end of the week too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 17 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The WRF-ARW is an ORD destroyer and gives[mention=14]Hoosier[/mention] some love. There's enough of a signal across the high res models and some of the ops I think to buy into a corridor of potentially well over 12" totals from synoptic+lake enhancement. It’s got 13.2 inches of snow down by midnight tomorrow. Oh my goodness, oh my damn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 0z RGEM a tick NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cutlew Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 17 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The WRF-ARW is an ORD destroyer and gives@Hoosier some love. And leaves us in between in the city to fight for the scraps /s would happily lock in 12” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigHoss Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Number 1 Analog March 7th-9th, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 How does the storm track impact the lake effect in NE IL? Is it a case of further west of the track the further the lake effect or would that just mean the same general amount of lake effect but greater totals from the "system snow"Even though the sfc low track is still well southeast of us, the position of the surface high and the surface low being farther northwest than earlier runs brings the low level convergence axis farther west/northwest. The thermodynamics were always favorable to get good lake enhancement/effect but getting the synoptic farther northwest only helps with totals for locations in line for lake enhancement. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I really wonder how likely it is that I scrape off with more than 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 That 00Z NAM run through Thurs morning, I'm gonna need a bigger crack pipe lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Even though this is just pregame snows right now, if you will, I can't ever recall starting a bigger event with a temperature of 1˚. Flake size is pretty good too. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Malacka11 said: I really wonder how likely it is that I scrape off with more than 5" I'l be happy with 4ish for those of us out in the eastern part of Kane county. I have family near O'Hare that has no idea they potentially are going to be buried if the current forecast holds true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z RGEM a tick NW. 18" over Alek's head, thru 0z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Currently snowing at a decent clip. Already have a light coating down on the cars. I was reluctant to believe the first wave would produce much but the radar looks good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AuerHaus Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 47 minutes ago, HighTechEE said: Welcome to the forum! You might be mistaking the range totals, ILN said 6-10 total accums. Thx. Usually I look at the tabular, guess I read graphs better than words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 It's currently snowing and -2F outside. The only other time I can remember getting accumulations below 0F was during the polar blast of jan/feb 2019. Seeing the models creep NW with the extent of >6" amounts has me hopeful What a crazy storm this is. Talk about spreading the wealth!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Seems like this initial appetizer snow is setting shop right now from STL to Champaign. Hoping we see the snow blossom more to the north like models suggest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 0z HIRES models. Spartman style. ARW and NSSL. Kinda interesting that both have a lolli of 12/13" in parts of IKK county. Micro shenanigans most likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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