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February 14-16 Winter Storm Part 2


Hoosier
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1 hour ago, snowcaine said:

I usually find that an average between Kuchera and 10:1 works out best. Unless it's lake effect or slop, then Kuchera all the way.

7" seems like a good bet to me at this stage.

More heavier bands just about to cross over Lake Erie as per radar. That should tick up accumulations. 6-8"+ still looks like a good call atm. 

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

200 mile NW shift in last 2 days of this storm. Pretty remarkable. Weather models are getting worse it seems.

I agree, they are. It's going to be a nice storm for both of us. How's the current conditions in Buffalo right now? 

We'll need to monitor the mid-week event as well. Tonight's guidance trended weaker and further south. Wonder if we'll run into the same issue. 

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5 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I agree, they are. It's going to be a nice storm for both of us. How's the current conditions in Buffalo right now? 

We'll need to monitor the mid-week event as well. Tonight's guidance trended weaker and further south. Wonder if we'll run into the same issue. 

2-3" so far. Waiting for that dry slot and mixture that is heading up from Ohio.

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33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You and me have a different view of what blizzard conditions are.

WUNIDS_map?num=6&type=N0R&mapx=400&mapy=

There are definitely near-whiteouts from all this dry snow blowing around and it’s drifting pretty good. Ground truth is more dramatic than it appears on radar. As someone who grew up with Mass. blizzards, this looks like a pretty good (if relatively short-lived) one on the ground. 

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29 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That is like 1" per hour snowfall rates max. I thought blizzard was 35+ mph+?

Its at least 1" an hour. You don't need ANY snowfall to make blizzard conditions. We had near 0.1 mile visibility on February 4th with 2-3"/hr rates in a band...with very little wind, blizzard conditions never crossed my mind. Tonight definitely is blizzard conditions. Honestly, I prefer straight down snow over blizzard conditions however they are definitely fun. 

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Finally winding down here, I think lol.  Been snowing consistently since about 2 pm not counting  wave one.  Always been steady SN to +SN with wide types of dendrites.  Roads out here are trash, some with 4 to 6 ft drifts.  Walked out to my road with the dogs around 9 and there were a couple drifts that came up to my chest and I'm 6'2".  So we're stuck for awhile.  Weather station recorded sustained 25KT winds for more than an hour a couple times, once when that first fgen band came through around 2-3, and the 2nd from about 6- 8:30 or so.  Highest gust was 38KT's  at 7:55.  Plenty of gusts over 30KT's throughout.  About the craziest and most fun snow event since I moved here, maybe because we just don't see a system like that around here very often.

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9 minutes ago, RobertSul said:

There are definitely near-whiteouts from all this dry snow blowing around and it’s drifting pretty good. Ground truth is more dramatic than it appears on radar. As someone who grew up with Mass. blizzards, this looks like a pretty good (if relatively short-lived) one on the ground. 

Morning will be fun playing with the snowblower in the drifts and trying to get a measurement. 

Screenshot_20210216-002639_Gallery.jpg

Screenshot_20210216-002634_Gallery.jpg

Screenshot_20210216-002627_Gallery.jpg

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Still snowing here, got about 2".  Ratios seem quite low due to the sugary nature from the pixies, but makes for a quality addition to the existing snowpack.  About 18-19" of snow and ice on the ground now.  

EDIT:  MLI has 3.5" as of midnight.  Didn't think they'd be that much higher than me, so maybe I did a crappy job of measuring lol.

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Just now, cyclone77 said:

Still snowing here, got about 2".  Ratios seem quite low due to the sugary nature from the pixies, but makes for a quality addition to the existing snowpack.  About 18-19" of snow and ice on the ground now.  

Well, I said it was winding down here.  Just started +SN fat flakes from a desperate weenie band moving in.  This thing just won't stop, not that I'm complaining lol.

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Some +SN and 1/4 mile visibility and wind gusts over 20 kt and even 34 kt near where I used to live east of Toledo

Quote

KTDZ 160553Z AUTO 02014G22KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV007 M08/M10 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 03029/0535 SLP098 P0003 60015 T10831100 11078 21089 58006 $
KTDZ 160533Z AUTO 02017G26KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV005 M08/M11 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 02028/0515 P0002 T10831106 $
KTDZ 160453Z AUTO 02018G26KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV003 M08/M10 A2978 RMK AO2 PK WND 02034/0424 SLP093 P0005 T10831100 410781094 $
KTDZ 160426Z AUTO 03023G34KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV004 M08/M10 A2978 RMK AO2 PK WND 02034/0424 PRESFR P0003 T10831100 $

 

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34 minutes ago, TheRegionRat said:

 

Lake effect still ripping here. Almost north to south orientation.  If it slides just a mile east, and sits a bit, the snow will pile up quickly.

I'm basically in the same situation.  Hope to wake up to an overperformer!

Nice convergence zone between GYY and IGQ.

chi_sfc.gif.464da0a4cd2d911e683aab40c5d3c06a.gif

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Just below 6 inches total for today, but enough to break a record.
 

940
SXUS71 KILN 160608
RERDAY

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1248 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2021

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT DAYTON OH...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 5.9 INCHES WAS SET AT DAYTON, OHIO YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.3 INCHES THAT WAS SET IN 2003.

CVG only got 3.7" of snow while CMH only got 1.9" of it.

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Unfortunate that ORD just missed being consistently under the goods by no more than a couple miles off to their east. The 6.7" total seems a little low and @Chicago Storm thinks there's probably a missing 1-1.5" to their total. Once we get CoCoRaHS reports in the morning, especially the ones closest to ORD's longitude, we'll have a better gauge on how realistic the amount is there. They may be able to get to 8"+ by 12z. Considering MDW 3SW coming in with 15.9" and 10.5" between 6pm and midnight, it was a so near yet so far situation for ORD coming in with another double digit event.

It's the nature of LES though and this goes down as the 3rd 6"+ event in well under 1 month, which is extremely impressive. Plus the 20" snow depth, which was last reached in February 2011. What a stretch. Even though I was optimistic for a good stretch back when posting about it earlier in January, didn't think it would be THIS good lol.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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