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February 14-16 Winter Storm Part 2


Hoosier
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48 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Early days but so far flake size is a bit underwhelming. Still time for that to change but given this is a quick hitter going to need things to ramp up in the next 1.5-2 hours. 

I usually find that an average between Kuchera and 10:1 works out best. Unless it's lake effect or slop, then Kuchera all the way.

7" seems like a good bet to me at this stage.

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After going outside, I'm not sure what to make of any of this. It definitely got to 3.5-4.5 inches as of now, but it's basically light snow, and unless more builds up, we're looking at the end in Fairfield. We dodged the cool bands that went through Mason, and honestly, ending at 5-7 inches is fine, but there's a part of me that's really unsure what to think at this point. We had 2 inches by the end of the early band, so getting 3-5 out of this later band is very interesting, if nothing else, given how much more potent the later band looked. It's not over - time will tell obviously if we get more snow building - but as of right now, my optimism isn't very high. That said, seeing the pictures from Indiana has been the highlight of all of this, and I'm really glad to have at least bore witness to one of the most interesting storms I've ever seen. Just didn't play out in my favor this time, got 7 out of the last storm (the one that dropped 10 in the city of Cincy itself), so really, given the fact that last winter, we were lucky if we got 7 inches, I guess this is something comparatively.

 

And all the models were in agreement for so long to see 6-12 inches, so I don't blame anyone. I know it's not an exact science, but I also knew that A: that dry slot was trouble, and B: I knew those NW shifts were going to end the game. 

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1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Shit isn’t good out here in the stix. 19” base of powder that had plenty of time to dry out with -20 dews is blowing like crazy. 
 

Snagged this from a Facebook group, but it’s a fair representation of our east/west roads. 
 

image.thumb.png.a346080b1162a7baa0e5cffc278957dd.png

My wife just informed me that apparently a train has become stuck in a snow drift south of DeKalb.

A TRAIN.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL  
928 PM CST MON FEB 15 2021  
   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0926 PM     HEAVY SNOW       3 SW MIDWAY AIRPORT     41.74N 87.78W  
02/15/2021  M11.9 INCH       COOK               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER     
  
            3 INCHES FROM 7:45 PM TO 8:55 PM; SD 23   
            INCHES.   
 

 

 

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Just now, janetjanet998 said:

can't ever quite make it to ORD though with the pushes

0 for 3 now

the storm total difference between ORD and MDW will be LOL X 10 

due to the above plus ?? snow measurements early on

 

Very N/S orientation of the LE band. Benefitted areas near the lake like Uptown and Lakeview up north and areas just inland towards southern Cook like MDW. Actually not hearing much from downtown, but the wife is a questionable source...

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Just got in from shoveling.  Wow.  I'm calling my current snow depth at 20" but honestly it's a bit hard to say for sure given all of the blowing and drifting that has occurred.  In any case I've only seen a depth like this a couple other times.  I have a few piles that are each 5-6 feet high.

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1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

can't ever quite make it to ORD though with the pushes

0 for 3 now

the storm total difference between ORD and MDW will be LOL X 10 

due to the above plus  *  snow measurements early on

 

Even adding in the potential missing snow, the gap would still be quite large.

As you mentioned, another attempt of the main LES band pushing into ORD has failed... Though riding the edge now is better than fully missing it like earlier.

Convergence is running right up the lake-shore, so unless that changes, it'll never fully make it into ORD.

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2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Very N/S orientation of the LE band. Benefitted areas near the lake like Uptown and Lakeview up north and areas just inland towards southern Cook like MDW. Actually not hearing much from downtown, but the wife is a questionable source...

There was a 7.8" report from the Loop at 8PM.

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8 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

can't ever quite make it to ORD though with the pushes

0 for 3 now

the storm total difference between ORD and MDW will be LOL X 10 

due to the above plus  *  snow measurements early on at ORD

 

Band never making it to ORD means * is likely not an *, or much less than some want to think.

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band now east of Midway 

you can tell on the I-55 west of Central Ave IDOT cam just NW of them Vis is up 

and nothing in obs this hour about snow depth and vis up to 1/2mile

meanwhile:

0930 PM     HEAVY SNOW       EVANSTON                42.04N 87.69W  
02/15/2021  M12.0 INCH       COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER    
  
            GETTING UP TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES. 22 INCH   
            SNOW DEPTH.   
  

 

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