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February 14-16 Winter Storm Part 2


Hoosier
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1 hour ago, Toro99 said:

Hey Stebo, I know you’ve had some opinions on DTW over the years, what would you have done for the GRR forecast area? 

It’s seems crazy to me (just a lurker mind you) that based on 24 hr trends and current guidance that most if not all of their

advisory counties should have been upgraded to warning. Even using a conservative 18:1 slr (their number per afd) and 

avg. qpf of around 0.35-0.40 for the whole area, you come out with snowfall and event duration  that would seem to warrant the upgrade?

 

I think they finally got the warning right as it is now, but I would have put the southeast 3 counties in when they originally issued the WAA.

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KMDW 160153Z 34014KT 1/4SM R31C/1400V3500FT +SN BLSN VV005 M12/M16 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP212 PRESENT WX DRSN SNINCR 3/22 P0002 T11221156 $
KMDW 160053Z 35014G20KT 1/4SM R31C/3000V5000FT +SN BLSN VV006 M11/M14 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP208 PRESENT WX DRSN SNINCR 2/19 P0001 T11111144 $
KMDW 152353Z 35016KT 1/4SM R31C/2800V4000FT +SN BLSN VV005 M11/M14 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP204 PRESENT WX DRSN SNINCR 2/17 4/017 P0001 60002 T11111139 11078 21128 58034 $
KMDW 152253Z 02016G23KT 1/4SM R31C/1400V2600FT +SN BLSN VV008 M08/M12 A3009 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP211 PRESENT WX DRSN SNINCR 1/16 P0001 T10831117 $

 

4 hours in a row of SNINCR at MDW 1, 2, 2, 3 in the last 4 hours. That is incredible.

 

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14 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Shit isn’t good out here in the stix. 19” base of powder that had plenty of time to dry out with -20 dews is blowing like crazy. 
 

Snagged this from a Facebook group, but it’s a fair representation of our east/west roads. 
 

image.thumb.png.a346080b1162a7baa0e5cffc278957dd.png

Same here.  Plow in ditch.  Taken by county highway plow.  

E9CD75B2-1E3C-40D4-B576-CBD9CB01FD53.jpeg

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
813 PM CST MON FEB 15 2021  
   
UPDATE  
  
812 PM CST  
  
NOT SURE WHAT'S LEFT TO BE SAID THAT HASN'T ALREADY, BUT OUR  
REMARKABLE SNOWSTORM (CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE ARCTIC   
AIRMASS IN PLACE) IS ESSENTIALLY HEADING INTO ITS PEAK AT THIS   
TIME, WITH SNOWFALL RATES MAXIMIZING HERE PROBABLY THROUGH ABOUT   
MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM. THE AXIS OF STEADIEST SNOWFALL HAS SET UP SHOP   
ROUGHLY EAST OF A MENDOTA TO MCHENRY LINE. LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS AND  
HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR A FEW HOURS WITH STRONG CONFLUENCE NOTED   
WITH BUOYS SHOWING NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH, WITH   
NORTHWESTERLIES JUST INLAND. THE COOPERATIVE OBSERVER NEAR MIDWAY   
RECENTLY REPORTED AN EXCEPTIONAL 2.9 INCHES OF SNOW IN JUST ABOUT   
100 MINUTES. THINK THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL AT THIS POINT GIVEN   
RADAR TRENDS THAT THE JACKPOT AREA FOR THIS EVENT WILL PROBABLY BE  
2-3 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A ROUGHLY WINNETKA/EVANSTON TO MIDWAY   
LINE. WHEN ALL IS SAID AN DONE (AFTER LINGERING LAKE EFFECT   
DIMINISHES LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON), IMAGE WE'LL SEE A HANDFUL OF  
SNOWFALL REPORTS PUSHING 20 INCHES IN THIS CORRIDOR. 

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