featherwx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 hours later and we’re finally getting some of the goods as that main lake effect band races south across downtown. My boss just told us all to stay home tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Snownado said: I'm in dead center of Carmel also ! Seems like there is actually a decent sized Carmel crew on here 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustMePatrick Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0093.html SPC calling for 2+ inch per hour rates. Mesoscale Discussion 0093 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Areas affected...central/northern Illinois...southern Lower Michigan...northern/central Indiana...northern Ohio Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 152052Z - 160245Z SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy snow will overspread much of the discussion area from the southwest over the course of the afternoon/evening. Localized areas will received 1-2+ inch per hour snow rates. DISCUSSION...Broad, large-scale lift associated with a mid-level wave across Kansas/Oklahoma continued to maintain a broad precipitation shield across much of the Midwest currently. The precipitation continues to fall as snow (heavy at times) across much of southern Illinois and Indiana. The precip shield is outpacing many models in its northeastward progression and will overspread much of the discussion area from south to north over the next several hours. Within the precipitation shield, it appears that a subtle shortwave over western Tennessee has provided forcing aloft for enhanced snowfall rates across southern Illinois and Indiana. Most of the heavy snow reports have been concentrated in this area, and localized banding may result in 2+ inch/hour rates as this area spreads northeastward into Indiana/northwestern Ohio over the course of the afternoon. Farther west, a few bands have also produced heavier snow from the St. Louis area through central Illinois. This axis of snow should shift northeastward toward the Chicago Metro area and portions of southern Lower Michigan over the next several hours, with 1 inch/hour rates probable beneath heavier bands. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, schoeppeya said: Seems like there is actually a decent sized Carmel crew on here And I used to live in Fortville for six years so I pay attention to what is going on down Indpls-Carmel way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Snownado said: I'm in dead center of Carmel also ! Carmel partayyy lol Does look like there's some 30+dbz stuff in Indy moving N as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I measured 2" but I'm on the 4th floor of an apartment building so not sure how accurate it is. Maybe I will get more snow since I'm on the 4th floor ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naptown Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 16 minutes ago, Snownado said: The flakes have been very tiny here. NE Indy is the same...no big flakes but it's coming down pretty good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cincy.wx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 after a brief stint with fat flakes, it’s now back to sleet. it lasted all of 20 minutes, i want to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Looks like that band shifting back south slowly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Posting for posterity's sake. All of Indiana in a Winter Storm Warning. That just doesn't happen often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1.5 last hour 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndTenn Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 23 minutes ago, Snownado said: The flakes have been very tiny here. Here too on the northwest side of Indy. Visibility has dropped - there is a building 400 yards away that is now pretty much invisible, I don't know if due to fog or snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Nor do winter warnings often occur from southern TX to Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Posting for posterity's sake. All of Indiana in a Winter Storm Warning. That just doesn't happen often. I've gotta think it happens more often than all of Texas being under a warning ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 26 minutes ago, miller.b.time said: Awaiting further obliteration. (From the snow, not the beer. Unless... ) Nice can't go wrong with a stogie and liquid breakfast to go along with your snowstorm. Dragons milk and this help keep you warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 This is gonna rival some of the local dogz 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 While it isn't a bullseye IMBY, this storm has the perfect distribution to spread the 1 foot or more snow depth across almost all of the Lower Peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Baum said: on the door step of a certifiable lock justified. Now if just the Snow Gods would have given us a heads up 2 months ago this was going to happen it would have saved a lot of complaining (and posts here) ;-) I'm out of the Lake Snow part of this but great to see the scope of this and hope people take this seriously on the roads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 ILX AFD, they don't seem as worried as I am Quote Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 316 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 307 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Moderate to at times heavy snow will continue through this evening and eventually taper off to flurries overnight tonight. Temperatures will be cold tonight, falling into the single digits and even below zero is some locations near the Illinois River Valley. Temperatures will warm into the teens Tuesday under partly to mostly cloudy skies. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 307 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Snow is ongoing and increasing in intensity this afternoon across central Illinois. Water vapor imagery reveals a negatively tilted shortwave lifting across portions of mid Mississippi Valley, ejecting out ahead of main upper low centered over eastern KS. Snow is expected to peak across the area through around midnight tonight when the H5 low finally begins to shift across central Illinois marking the back edge of the accumulating snow. No major changes to the going forecast made this afternoon with the heaviest snow still expected to be focused over the eastern part of the state. From this afternoon through tonight, in addition to snow that fell last night into this morning, an additional 3 to 6 inches of snow is possible along the Illinois River Valley (under the Winter Weather Advisory), 4 to 8 inches from the I-55 to I-57 corridors, and 6 to 10 inches east of I-57. Latest RAP does depict a modest layer of FGen over east central Illinois and regional radar does show a couple bands of heavier snow lifting north. Does seem the better banding potential will be through the remainder of the afternoon and then will diminish with time this evening. Under the heavier bands, visibility less than a quarter mile and snow rates of around an inch per hour or slightly higher are possible, at least briefly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Coming down good now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Steady -SN now, flake size not bad. We'll see if early arrival of synoptic snow means anything for totals. The NAMs keep snow going until 13-14z tomorrow, so for areas favored for lake enhancement, assuming they're right on end time, could boost totals an inch or two. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigHoss Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Talk me out of this busting HARD in IND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 First flakes flying here. RAP has upped us to over 0.20" of precip now, and the HRRR and NAMs have bumped us into the high teens. Should hopefully be able to fluff 3-4" out of that, which is a HUGE win compared to how this looked a few days ago. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Snow coming down fairly heavy right now. Flake size is tiny compared to the huge flakes I was getting with the light snow in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Afternoon onset is predominately sleet/fine snow pellets -- definitely not the fat dendrite flakes that I was hoping to see; certainly the track of the storm and the deeper low has knocked down our forecast totals down in SE Cincy. --- i would guess 5-7"...going to be hard to get a good measurement...I guess our drifts here won't be as bad as East Central Indiana. Still expecting a spectacular show at some point this afternoon or evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Pound town here north of Lima, OH. SN with great dendrites, intensity continues to ramp up as the hours pass. Definitely starting to get windier as well. Will measure at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: First flakes flying here. RAP has upped us to over 0.20" of precip now, and the HRRR and NAMs have bumped us into the high teens. Should hopefully be able to fluff 3-4" out of that, which is a HUGE win compared to how this looked a few days ago. 18z RGEM with 0.19" out your way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, BigHoss said: Talk me out of this busting HARD in IND IND still seems very much to think that this is on track to verify as expected. We're not in the true heart of the event yet, which should begin in a couple of hours, if I'm not mistaken. The 3:30 disco from IND is worth a read to put your mind at ease: Quote .Mesoscale Update... Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 Satellite imagery continues to blossom over the Ohio Valley this afternoon, with water vapor indicating growing depth of atmospheric moisture. Visible satellite imagery indicates some convective layers across Western TN/KY, which is all steadily advecting north and expected to move across Central/Southern Indiana later this evening. Precipitable water at the sfc is also on the rise, with values ranging from .4 inches across the north to .6 inches across Southern Indiana. Radar reflectivity across the area continues to be on the rise in volume and intensity this afternoon. The next line of stronger snowfall is approaching Crawfordsville to Edinburgh to Rushville line. This area was steadily lifting north and expected to be in the Indy metro area by 4pm. Vertical lift in the lower levels will be robust this evening as well, which should aid in dendrite size growth and volume as the greater snowfall rates increase. Further compounding the complexity to the atmosphere is the layer of anomalous warm/moist air steadily advecting north, eluded to in the prior discussion in regards to the precipitable water. Thermal profiles indicate that dendrite size should increase marginally over the next few hours, coupled with the deeper moisture aloft. Unfortunately pressure change will become mixed to the surface, pushing gusts to between 20-30 mph, further exacerbating conditions bringing visibilities down to less than 1 mile frequently, due to the fine dendrite size. Cant rule out whiteout conditions periodically this evening as well. The main concern for this evening will be on the precise path of the 850mb low. Typically in more robust winter storms this indicates the location of the deformation axis, which is also the location of the heaviest snowfall due to the forcing and supportive atmospheric conditions. Timing for this feature still progged to be in the early/mid evening timeframe across Central Indiana. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 LOT Snippet: ARRIVE VERY QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SNOW WILL HIT HARD AND FAST. THIS IS CERTAINLY ONE HECK OF A SYSTEM, 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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