February 14-16 Winter Storm Part 2

[janetjanet998]

ILX finally on the ball

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GALESBURG, TOULON, PEORIA, LACON, EUREKA,  
CANTON, PEKIN, RUSHVILLE, HAVANA, AND BEARDSTOWN  
1201 PM CST MON FEB 15 2021  
  
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST  
TUESDAY...   
..WIND CHILL WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CST TODAY  
  
* WHAT...SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.  
  
* WHERE...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  

[cyclone77]

ORD getting in on it now, down to 1/4 mile vis.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

1998-99: 24" 

That's your target! Good luck over there

Thanks! I'd argue 2014 seemed more impressive because it was a constant assault of wind compressing and drifting the snow. the actual piles and drifts were more impressive and of course lasted much longer. 

[Baum]

^come sw baby

[Hoosier]

This next round is definitely a little early.  Had been expecting a lull until around 2 or 3 pm central but not gonna happen.  Not sure if it means more snow or if the entire system is moving faster than progged.

[Chicago Storm]

1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

ORD getting in on it now, down to 1/4 mile vis.

1/4SM with -SN. 

Oh, and forget about having a reliable measurement until 2PM.

[ChiTownSnow]

3 minutes ago, Baum said:

^come sw baby

Getting some good flakes now.

[ChiTownSnow]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This next round is definitely a little early.  Had been expecting a lull until around 2 or 3 pm central but not gonna happen.  Not sure if it means more snow or if the entire system is moving faster than progged.

LOT sped up the timing of next round for southern sections

[miamarsden8]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This next round is definitely a little early.  Had been expecting a lull until around 2 or 3 pm central but not gonna happen.  Not sure if it means more snow or if the entire system is moving faster than progged.

That's what I'm trying to figure out myself. It could mean 2-3 extra inches or it could mean a faster storm, I have no clue. Anyone hearing anything on how this'll affect it?

[Chicago WX]

Just one more time for the hell of it...but the 12z Euro bumped northwest.

[blue60007]

Already ripping here, a bit ahead of schedule.

[CANNOTDIVIDEBY0]

Heavy band is moving south, coming back into the far northern chicago neighborhoods.

[mississaugasnow]

32 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

QPF maps nearly uniformly nail Niagara so it's tough to against that, but I think we've seen this story before.

Look at what a great job the models did with this appetizer piece today.   I got some mostly sunny skies here.

Ya, Im almost right in the jackpot zone. The QPF maps keep the best just east of me.

Since I've seen this play out before (worst hands down was GHD storm) I have tempered my expectations a bit for my backyard. 

15cm and this storm gets a solid C+ because it would be within a few cms of the biggest storm of the year for me. 

20cm B 

25cm and above A+ 

Also tough to get really disappointed with 15-20cm (I dont see it being less for Hamilton-Haldimand-Niagara, do you guys?) with a winter storm watch most likely being issued 24 hours after this one ends. 

[ChiTownSnow]

Hoping those bands from the south start to pop a bit northand merge with the lake effect

[snowstormcanuck]

Just now, mississaugasnow said:

Ya, Im almost right in the jackpot zone. The QPF maps keep the best just east of me.

Since I've seen this play out before (worst hands down was GHD storm) I have tempered my exceptions a bit for my backyard. 

15cm and this storm gets a solid C+ because it would be within a few cms of the biggest storm of the year for me. 

20cm B 

25cm and above A+ 

Also tough to get really disappointed with 15-20cm (I dont see it being less for Hamilton-Haldimand-Niagara, do you guys?) with a winter storm watch most likely being issued 24 hours after this one ends. 

I think you're safe.  Wish the duration was a bit longer though...looks like 7-10 hours so the snow will have to come down to get the bigger amounts.

[Stebo]

So ready for this storm, there has been little break so far too, we already have had 1-2 for most of the metro with the initial burst and look to add 6-12 more depending which model/ratios you go with. I am thinking 17-20:1 which would be an additional 8-12 roughly. This storm has already been legendary and will be one for the record books just for how many places got hit all the way back to Portland and Seattle.

[ohiocat5908]

Got about 1.5" from the overnight wave. Wave 2  now getting underway. Pumped. 

[janetjanet998]

"SMACK DAB BETWEEN O'HARE AND MIDWAY" = does not exist in official climate records

 

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
1221 PM CST MON FEB 15 2021  
   
UPDATE...1215 PM CST  
  
TWO DOMINANT BANDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE COOK COUNTY AND LAKE  
COUNTY IL. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVERGENCE WITH A  
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE CHICAGO CRIB AND NORTHWEST WINDS INLAND,  
AND A SEPARATE AREA OF WEAKER CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH SIDE   
OF CHICAGO AND INTO LAKE COUNTY IL. REPORTS FROM WILMETTE AND   
EVANSTON WERE 4" IN 2 HOURS FROM THIS SNOW.   
  
RAP FORECAST OF CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS THIS BAND WILL SHIFT TO  
CENTRAL COOK COUNTY, POSSIBLY SMACK DAB BETWEEN O'HARE AND MIDWAY  
(LIKELY TO INCLUDE MIDWAY AIRPORT) AND WILL LIKELY BECOME THE   
AREA OF FOCUS OF THE LAKE BAND THIS AFTERNOON.  
  
MEANWHILE, SYNOPTIC SNOW IS CRUISING ON IN, AND EXPECT A FASTER  
START TO SNOW TODAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WHICH WILL MAKE  
FOR A MESSY AFTERNOON COMMUTE AREA WIDE.   
  
KMD  
  

[cyclone77]

12z Euro has 4.7" here off of 0.18" precip on the new WXBell kuchera.  That's 26:1 LSR, which seems a bit far fetched.  I guess we'll see.

[weathernerd]

1 hour ago, Snownado said:

Seems to be earlier than expected ? I thought the main event wouldnt start until like 4pm.

Yeah that was the original thought but I’ll tell ya it’s absolutely ripping at 1:30pm and from the looks of the radar, it ain’t gonna slow down anytime soon. 

[mississaugasnow]

3 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I think you're safe.  Wish the duration was a bit longer though...looks like 7-10 hours so the snow will have to come down to get the bigger amounts.

Yep, I'll be following the reports out of Indiana, Ohio and Michigan. They will give us some idea on what to expect here. 

Though unlikely, I might have to dive into the records to see if YYZ or YHM has ever had two snowstorms drop 30cm+ within days of each other? I think 99 might have but I forget how many days passed between storms. 

[Hoosier]

Some nice returns in south central MO should bode well for places that are more toward the northwest side of things such as Peoria.

[Greenwald]

We have about 2 inches on the ground now in Fort Wayne. There's a lull right now.

[McHenrySnow]

1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

12z Euro has 4.7" here off of 0.18" precip on the new WXBell kuchera.  That's 26:1 LSR, which seems a bit far fetched.  I guess we'll see.

Do you mind posting? 

[miamarsden8]

FOR ILN:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A stronger wave will eject out the longwave trough later today.
Guidance provides confidence that precipitation will blossom across
the region mid-late afternoon today, with rates quickly increasing
as a corresponding surface low intensifies and lifts from the
Tennessee Valley into southwest PA late this evening. ECMWF going
more amplified for the 00Z run, and other models coming in line with
this.

The result is higher confidence in the previous 12Z package shifting
the surface low path to the west, as a blend of several model
solutions consistently provides sleet and freezing rain in the
southeast. This leads to heavy snow from the I-71 corridor back to
west central Ohio and east-central Indiana. In addition, the more
amplified pattern leads to higher QPF, so storm total snow grids now
yield 7-11 inches in the all-snow areas northwest of I-71 and 0.1 to
0.3 inches of ice in the southeast. Woudn`t be surprised if the
gradient between heavy snow and sleet/freezing rain needs tightening
up with upcoming updates -- especially from northern Kentucky
through central Ohio.

Have also kept blowing snow in the weather grids this evening during
peak snowfall rates. Winds gusting around 25-30mph are not out of
the question.

Low will eject northeast Tuesday morning with a chance of flurries
remaining in the very cold air behind the low. Low temperatures in
the teens Monday night will slowly increase to high temperatures a
few degrees on either side of 20 Tuesday.

[Powerball]

Well damn!!!

When's the last time we saw these areas share a widespread 12-15" snowstorm?

[Powerball]

BTW, I would definitely be salty about missing this storm if the EURO ends up correct, lol.

[miamarsden8]

1 minute ago, Powerball said:

Well damn!!!

When's the last time we saw these areas share a widespread 12-15" snowstorm?

The reality is that this is a very historic event potentially if all plays out as it should. 

[featherwx]

Okay this is getting ridiculous, still nothing more than a flurry in about 3 hours...

[snowstormcanuck]

Just now, mississaugasnow said:

Yep, I'll be following the reports out of Indiana, Ohio and Michigan. They will give us some idea on what to expect here. 

Though unlikely, I might have to dive into the records to see if YYZ or YHM has ever had two snowstorms drop 30cm+ within days of each other? I think 99 might have but I forget how many days passed between storms. 

Let me know what you find.  Given how rare 30cm+ storms are for us I doubt it's happened. 

'99 YYZ was using the nipher gauge so not even Jan 2-3 registered 30cm+ .  Downtown Toronto came close with 38cm on Jan 2-3 and then I believe ~28cm on Jan 14-15.  

Thinking this one tonight will be the bigger storm of the week.  Thursday-Friday storm looks like a quick coastal transfer and we're getting more snow scraps, maybe we edge out a moderate event.