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February 14-16 Winter Storm Part 2


Hoosier
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looks like the main band is now parking with a long fetch with ORD getting decent leftovers

the band south of it is pretty decent too despite a shorter fetch and shore ice

and maybe a weaker band now trying to form NW of the main band that may move into lakeshore Lake county IL

in between lake enhanced system snow

fun times

 

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Just now, janetjanet998 said:

looks like the main band is now parking with a long fetch

the band south of it is pretty decent too despite a shorter fetch and shore ice

and maybe a weaker band now trying to form NW of the main band that may move into lakeshore Lake county IL

in between lake enhanced system snow

fun times

 

Was just going to comment that the main band appears to becoming stationary just north of Evanston those towns under that band are going to get slammed

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1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

  
1100 AM     SNOW             2 E WILMETTE            42.07N 87.69W  
02/15/2021  M4.7 INCH        COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER    
  
            SNOW TOTAL SINCE 7 AM. 2.6 INCHES OF SNOW IN   
            THE LAST HOUR.   

Total there so far between 5-6" already, when factoring in snow since last evening.

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12 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I don't believe it at all. ILX is way underestimating this. I think event total here will easily be 5-7in in metro Peoria. 

My guess is they are heavily weighted to WPC guidance.

 

WPC doesn't give anywhere in IL aside from Chicago area of exceeding 8". I thought it would be a  it higher probs than that in at least eastern and south eastern IL. They have the better snows well east compared to modeling, same with the next system.

 

Screenshot_20210215-112310_Chrome.thumb.jpg.b7f94ff655b6f35490400cd5a183b009.jpg

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6 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

TotalSnowB2_Fcst_48hrs.png

Calling 4 inches with anything more being a pleasant surprise. The distance from the west border of Kane County to the lake is ~40 miles and from my house to where the yellow starts in NIL is only around 10 miles. The snowmaps SE (essentially all of Indiana) are a beauty as well. 

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6 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

My guess is they are heavily weighted to WPC guidance.

 

WPC doesn't give anywhere in IL aside from Chicago area of exceeding 8". I thought it would be a  it higher probs than that in at least eastern and south eastern IL. They have the better snows well east compared to modeling, same with the next system.

 

Screenshot_20210215-112310_Chrome.thumb.jpg.b7f94ff655b6f35490400cd5a183b009.jpg

Yea they tend to follow their guidance very closely and ignore most hi res guidance. Ha

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As far as the lake enhancement, I'm not even sure we've seen the best that the band has to offer yet.  If anything, low level convergence improves later on.  Would not be surprised if it ramps up to localized 4" per hour rates, especially this evening into tomorrow.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

As far as the lake enhancement, I'm not even sure we've seen the best that the band has to offer yet.  If anything, low level convergence improves later on.  Would not be surprised if it ramps up to localized 4" per hour rates, especially this evening into tomorrow.

Gonna be 20" reports in Cook.

Early candidate would be that Evanston/Winnetka area, given about 6" down thus far already.

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1 hour ago, blizzardof96 said:

Agreed completely. Several indicators pointing towards more of a 401/407 jackpot zone, in my opinion.

QPF maps nearly uniformly nail Niagara so it's tough to against that, but I think we've seen this story before.

Look at what a great job the models did with this appetizer piece today. :D  I got some mostly sunny skies here.

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25 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

  
1100 AM     SNOW             2 E WILMETTE            42.07N 87.69W  
02/15/2021  M4.7 INCH        COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER    
  
            SNOW TOTAL SINCE 7 AM. 2.6 INCHES OF SNOW IN   
            THE LAST HOUR.   

I'm guessing this location will be up to 8" for a  storm total as of noon.

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12 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

Calling 4 inches with anything more being a pleasant surprise. The distance from the west border of Kane County to the lake is ~40 miles and from my house to where the yellow starts in NIL is only around 10 miles. The snowmaps SE (essentially all of Indiana) are a beauty as well. 

Hoping for 3" here. Need to get off the boards so I don't have to subject myself to the punishment. 

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I have a bar in the backyard that I haven't cleared since the Jan 30/31 storm. Has about 14" depth. You can see the bigger flakes easily stacking on top of the existing pack right now. If this is how's it gonna be the rest of today and tonight, then...yeah. Wish I had a cyclone time lapse...

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