February 14-16 Winter Storm Part 2

[CANNOTDIVIDEBY0]

About 2 inches in the last hour up in west ridge

[blizzardof96]

29 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Going to be interesting tonight. 700mb low will take a track well to the west yet models painting in heaviest snow closest to Lk Erie.  Think they may be underestimating the mid level dryslot per usual.  Wouldn't be surprised to see the heaviest snow actually set up just NW of Toronto rather than Niagara region.

Agreed completely. Several indicators pointing towards more of a 401/407 jackpot zone, in my opinion.

[Sciascia]

47 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Very impressive.

Just realized that the tweet says “by Tuesday AM” and not “storm total.” Holy smokes.

[TiptonMike]

5 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Got about 2.5 to 3 this morning.  The big drift has begun.  My roads already down to one lane.  Gonna go out and play before the main course starts in few hours.  Friend just north of Houston said its insane down there lol.

N/S roads in Tipton and points south to NE Side were passable at 7am this morning. I can't imagine that lasting through the rush hour though. 

[janetjanet998]

7 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

That Chicago LES band extends as far ne as Muskegon.  Chicago will really get it today.

the one big band seems to have weakened some as a second weaker band seems to be forming more SE

downtown now seems to be in between

some models had this

if there is more wind shear then progged could be weaker multi bands

time will tell

even so multbands will be just spread the wealth and enhance the system snow everywhere

[WeatherMonger]

Not used to this, usually when we get a couple inches of snow and it starts blowing around in the single digits that was it. Can't remember the last time it was this cold before a big snow, my guess would be in the 80's but could have been more recent.

[michaelmantis]

Looks like returns are starting in the Peoria/Galesburg area and if I recall isn't the precip field supposed to start expand/filling in around the eastern 1/2 of N IL later today?

Checked through some of the 3AM posts earlier in the thread and how is the current precip performing to the modeling? With this lake effect and sharp cutoff in NIL as you move west, a track change of a bit will have some big population impacts. 

I said it yesterday and I'll say it again, all the pink on the NWS Watch/Warning national map is a beauty... I want to frame it...

[janetjanet998]

Just now, michaelmantis said:

Looks like returns are starting in the Peoria/Galesburg area and if I recall isn't the precip field supposed to start expand/filling in around the western 1/2 of NIL later today?

I noticed that too

was going to leave work at 3 trying to beat it

oh well

 

[A-L-E-K]

19 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

I know that you are north of downtown but where? 

Is that band now north of you?

Best just moved north, I'm in uptown right off the lake

[Sciascia]

3 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Not used to this, usually when we get a couple inches of snow and it starts blowing around in the single digits that was it. Can't remember the last time it was this cold before a big snow, my guess would be in the 80's but could have been more recent.

That’s been the most unbelievable thing to me. Normally, we get the big storm & the cold follows. Or we get the stretch of bitter cold temps that moderate to the 20s/30s ahead of a big storm.

Having this level of cold & storms simultaneously is a life I’m not used to.

[Chicago Storm]

I don't think there has been a RAP run yet that hasn't had 15"+ at ORD.

[cutlew]

At 3" as of 10 AM here, 1.8" in about 75 minutes of the LES band that pushed through

[cyclone77]

Most of the models have upped QPF here to about 0.17" or so on average.  It's gonna come down to the ratios as to how much we can fluff out of that.  

[featherwx]

20 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

the one big band seems to have weakened some as a second weaker band seems to be forming more SE

downtown now seems to be in between

some models had this

if there is more wind shear then progged could be weaker multi bands

time will tell

even so multbands will be just spread the wealth and enhance the system snow everywhere

Yeah it’s been coming down very lightly here in the IL Medical District (just south of 290) for the last hour or so. Hoping things pick back up before too long.

[janetjanet998]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
1037 AM CST MON FEB 15 2021  
   
UPDATE  
  
1018 AM CST  
  
OUR DOMINANT LAKE BAND HAS SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN COOK COUNTY THIS  
MORNING FOLLOWING THE BEST CONVERGENCE SIGNAL WHERE 2" PER HOUR  
RATES ARE OCCURRING. THIS WILL GIVE A BREAK TO AREAS SOUTH AND   
EAST FROM THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THERE IS A BIT OF SHEAR   
AND WEAKER CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF COOK COUNTY AND   
LAKE IN, THE THERMODYNAMICS STILL REMAIN STRONG TO SUPPORT   
CONTINUED LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH   
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS, SLIGHTLY  
LESS ORGANIZED, HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COOK  
COUNTY.   
  
MEANWHILE, WIDESPREAD 1/4SM TO 1/2SM VISIBILITY IN SNOW IS BEING  
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INCLUDING  
ARKANSAS, MISSISSIPPI, AND LOUISIANA! THIS IS WHAT IS SPREADING  
OUR WAY THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE SNOW FORECAST  
APPEARS ON TRACK, THOUGH WE DID SPEED UP THE TIMING OF SNOW SOUTH  
OF I-80 THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO GET BACK INTO  
THE SNOW DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE, EXCEPT POSSIBLY FAR NORTH  
CENTRAL IL. STILL, ONE IT STARTS SNOWING ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME  
VERY HAZARDOUS YET AGAIN WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND DRY SNOW.   
THIS MAY BE THE TIME TO GET HOME BEFORE THE SNOW SPREADS BACK IN   
IF YOU CAN.  
  
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS COOK COUNTY TONIGHT, AND THE  
EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS THERE WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY SNOW.   
  
KEEP IN MIND FOR RURAL AREAS THAT SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING OF SNOW   
WILL CONTINUE TODAY, TONIGHT, AND INTO TUESDAY, AND WHILE WIND   
CHILL VALUES HAVE "IMPROVED", VALUES OF 0 TO MINUS 20, WITH THE   
LOWEST READINGS WEST OF THE CHICAGO, ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT, THUS   
CAUTION IS URGED IF OUTSIDE.   
  

[RogueWaves]

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Deep snow watch in effect. Could see very impressive depth friday morning if Thursday pans out.

Peak snow depth at DTW since 2000..

2019-20: 9"

2018-19: 5"

2017-18: 14"

2016-17: 9"

2015-16: 5"

2014-15: 18"

2013-14: 20"

2012-13: 6"

2011-12: 5"

2010-11: 16"

2009-10: 10"

2008-09: 14"

2007-08: 9"

2006-07: 8"

2005-06: 7"

2004-05: 12"

2003-04: 5"

2002-03: 9"

2001-02: 8"

2000-01: 12"

1998-99: 24" 

That's your target! Good luck over there

[frostfern]

About 2" from yesterday evening through last night.  Long duration light dust.  Not overly fluffly like the last snowfall.  More just powder.  The main back-edge defo-band tonight should have bigger flakes... hopefully.  Bright sunshine now in the break between waves.  Weird that the other side of the lake is stealing all the lake effect this year. 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said:

  
0300 AM     SNOW             3 N VALPARAISO          41.52N 87.07W  
02/15/2021  M10.0 INCH       PORTER             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER    
  
            MOST SNOW FELL BETWEEN 12 AM AND 3 AM WITH   
            NEARLY 3 INCH PER HOUR RATES AT TIMES.   

Dang, nice start.  Wish I could've gotten in on that!

[Hoosier]

With that start in Porter county, there is little doubt there will be localized 20"+ amounts there imo.  Maybe can't rule it out entirely in Cook county either depending on how the band behaves 

[JustMePatrick]

[Jackstraw]

35 minutes ago, TiptonMike said:

N/S roads in Tipton and points south to NE Side were passable at 7am this morning. I can't imagine that lasting through the rush hour though. 

A poster just down the road, welcome.  We need some more central IN posters.  Think the E/W roads are going to be the worst, especially if we get into some 30mph gusts tonight and tomorrow like they're talking.  Actually saw a Tipton county plow out already plowing their side of county line road.  Jokers on this side are slackers lol.  Keep us up to date on how storm go's for you over there.

[Baum]

starting to see some small flakes again. Not sure if it's lake driven in this area.

[cutlew]

21 minutes ago, featherwx said:

Yeah it’s been coming down very lightly here in the IL Medical District (just south of 290) for the last hour or so. Hoping things pick back up before too long.

Back to SN here in the secondary "band" overspreading the south side, plus can already see KLOT radar filling in from the south, gonna be a good day

[JustMePatrick]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0088.html

Areas affected...southeastern Missouri...northern/western
   Kentucky...southern Illinois...much of Indiana...southwestern Ohio

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 151644Z - 152245Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow near the Mississippi River will spread
   northeastward across much of the discussion area over the next 3-6
   hours.  Accumulations of 1-2 inches per hour are possible in heavier
   bands.  A few areas of sleet may also mix in with the snow across
   Kentucky.

   DISCUSSION...Lift associated with an approaching mid-level wave over
   Oklahoma has resulted in a broad area of moderate to heavy
   precipitation from eastern Arkansas/western Tennessee southward to
   the central Gulf Coast.  Much of the precipitation has fallen as
   heavy snow, though sleet has mixed in with the precipitation across
   western Tennessee at times.  Additional bands of precipitation are
   developing in southern Illinois and southeastern Missouri currently,
   where recent METARs indicate heavy snow in Carbondale, IL; St.
   Louis, MO; and Poplar Bluff, MO.  This snow has developed roughly
   1-2 hours faster than this morning's 12Z model guidance.

   With broad-scale lift approaching the discussion area, the
   expectation is that snowfall rates will continue to intensify as the
   expanding precipitation shield moves northeastward across the
   discussion area.  Areas of 1-2 inch/hour snow rates are expected in
   heavier bands.  Model forecast soundings across Kentucky indicate a
   warm layer between H7-85 that may allow for sleet to occasionally
   mix in with snow across Kentucky.

[janetjanet998]

we have 2 inches or so down from last night

ILX saying 3-5 total in updated statement

12z GFS and Nams dump 7-8 more this afternoon and tonight

so that means 1-3 more according to ILX

sigh

 

[miamarsden8]

Just now, JustMePatrick said:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0088.html

Areas affected...southeastern Missouri...northern/western
   Kentucky...southern Illinois...much of Indiana...southwestern Ohio

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 151644Z - 152245Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow near the Mississippi River will spread
   northeastward across much of the discussion area over the next 3-6
   hours.  Accumulations of 1-2 inches per hour are possible in heavier
   bands.  A few areas of sleet may also mix in with the snow across
   Kentucky.

   DISCUSSION...Lift associated with an approaching mid-level wave over
   Oklahoma has resulted in a broad area of moderate to heavy
   precipitation from eastern Arkansas/western Tennessee southward to
   the central Gulf Coast.  Much of the precipitation has fallen as
   heavy snow, though sleet has mixed in with the precipitation across
   western Tennessee at times.  Additional bands of precipitation are
   developing in southern Illinois and southeastern Missouri currently,
   where recent METARs indicate heavy snow in Carbondale, IL; St.
   Louis, MO; and Poplar Bluff, MO.  This snow has developed roughly
   1-2 hours faster than this morning's 12Z model guidance.

   With broad-scale lift approaching the discussion area, the
   expectation is that snowfall rates will continue to intensify as the
   expanding precipitation shield moves northeastward across the
   discussion area.  Areas of 1-2 inch/hour snow rates are expected in
   heavier bands.  Model forecast soundings across Kentucky indicate a
   warm layer between H7-85 that may allow for sleet to occasionally
   mix in with snow across Kentucky.

I was actually about to note that. Reading the radar, it looked like it was at least an hour ahead of accuweather's projections. Is this a good or bad thing though? I'm uncertain...

[Radtechwxman]

Just now, janetjanet998 said:

we have 2 inches or so down from last night

ILX saying 3-5 total

12z GFS and Nams dump 7-8 more this afternoon and tonight

so that means 1-3 more according to ILX

sigh

 

I don't believe it at all. ILX is way underestimating this. I think event total here will easily be 5-7in in metro Peoria. 

[WeatherMonger]

ILX AFD update

 

Quote

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

After a relative lull in snow intensity and coverage, regional
radar mosaic shows moderate to heavy snow spreading back north
from southern Illinois and Missouri. Several upstream observations
report visibility has been reduced to between a quarter and three
quarters of a mile indicating more moderate to heavy snow is
occurring. Radar shows the heaviest snow is still lining up to
fall east of the Illinois River. Going forecast seems to be on
track given observational trends and still expect some of the
heaviest snow to occur this afternoon through sunset this evening
with impacts to the evening commute

 

[miamarsden8]

4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I don't believe it at all. ILX is way underestimating this. I think event total here will easily be 5-7in in metro Peoria. 

As someone who used to live in Macomb -- ILX does that a lot. No clue why.

[CANNOTDIVIDEBY0]

That heavy band is about 2 miles north of me. Come back to me bb I miss you