miller.b.time Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Latest IND mesoscale update: Quote .NEAR TERM /619 PM EST MESOSCALE UPDATE/... Expansive area of moderate to heavy snowfall continues across central Indiana early this evening. Winds have steadily increased across the region with a progressively tighter surface pressure gradient as low pressure tracks into eastern Tennessee and the presence of stronger boundary layer winds aloft. Beginning to see gusts routinely exceed 30mph since about 21Z and expect that to persist into the evening. Forecast remains on point going into the evening and while snowfall has been very heavy already late this afternoon...several factors point to the most intense rates still set to come...likely in the 00-04Z timeframe. May see a very brief lull through about 00Z in some areas where snow rates relax ever so slightly. However...another surge of lift and a progressively deeper plume of moisture advecting into the region will match up with excellent mid and upper level diffluence over the Ohio Valley to enable heavier snowfall rates to reestablish across the forecast area for a good portion of the evening. Hints of a TROWAL feature lifting northeast across the southeast half of the region over the next 3-4 hours will aid in an intense burst of low level lift to run in tandem with the deformation axis which is set to align just northwest of the path of the 850mb low. At this point...that is likely to set up in a SW to NE direction bisecting the forecast area in the vicinity of a Bloomington-Indy Metro-Muncie line. This is where the most intense snowfall this evening should set up with 1-2 inch/hour rates easily being met for about a 3-4 hour window through 03- 04Z. Sweetening the pot is a piece of the low level jet getting pulled up and around the top of the 850mb low...and aligning directly back into the forecast area from the northeast for a couple hours this evening. This will only enhance snowfall rates further. There remains a component focused on conditional instability as well with higher PWAT air advecting into the southeast half of the region over the next few hours and interacting with the strong low level lift. Satellite imagery earlier in the afternoon was hinting at cloud congestion and weak but notable instability in play. Would not rule out a couple rumbles of thunder and lightning strikes in the vicinity of the most intense bands into the evening. The DGZ remains robust through the evening which also supports the continued threat for big dendrites within the heaviest bands and potential for accentuation of snow ratios above the 12 to 15-1 we have been seeing up to this point. At the same time...the colder air will be drawn in from the northwest as the surface wave passes through the eastern Tennessee Valley and should naturally bump up snow ratios through the evening in addition to the boost from any intense lift in the vicinity of the deformation axis. At a minimum...expect these higher ratio potential to coincide with the heavier snow fall for at least a few hours. So taking all of the above into account...several hours of accumulating snow remain for central Indiana. It appears that the 00-04Z timeframe will be the storm sweet spot for the forecast area for the heaviest and most efficient snowfall. An additional 4-8 inches above and beyond what has already fallen looks likely considering above thoughts with potential for locally higher amounts where mesoscale banding sets up in the vicinity of the deformation axis. Wind gusts routinely around 30mph will maintain significant blowing and drifting of snow through the evening and even well through the overnight once snow has diminished. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18 minutes ago, Chambana said: Heavy band incoming. Shits the real deal boys, this storm is so fun. Grabbing my AirPods and walking again. Giddy doesn’t begin to explain my excitement. I’m on a high right now. Lol, havent left my driveway, beginning to debate my decision to take one more ride lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just getting started here in NW OH/SE MI. Looking like a solid foot+ in most areas. Jealous of the folks out west that got to see a little day time snow. But very fortunate we won't get visited by the infamous dry slot, as we usually do. To the METS out there. Do you think our predicted numbers are legit?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just measured 4.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 huge west push of the lake bands..(main band and weaker band to the south)really booking it west...in fact may "overshoot" where it was expected to stall edit: same thing with the bands off of the WI shore per MKE radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Absolutely nuts here with snow and wind. Are blizzard thresholds within reach? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: huge west push of the lake bands..(main band and weaker band to the south)really booking it west...in fact may "overshoot" where it was expected to stall edit: same thing with the bands off of the WI shore per MKE radar I like the radar returns in Lake County IL starting to fill in. It's a dream for that Lake Band in NE IL to come in 40 miles but at least a little enhancement would be great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I'm Guessing around 3.5 here imby (including last night). But sure feels like more with the fluffy snow and wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, TheRegionRat said: Absolutely nuts here with snow and wind. Are blizzard thresholds within reach? Likely not, but it really has the look and feel of one. I think the snow that was already on the ground and rooftops is adding to the conditions. We could be snowing another 15-18 hours if we can at least keep some lake scraps going prior to the main band shifting east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, TheRegionRat said: Absolutely nuts here with snow and wind. Are blizzard thresholds within reach? Been wondering same, gonna head out for a walk soon but looking legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Flake size a little small, but it's early. Always makes me nervous at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cartier God Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 small flake size here as the main band pushes north. good rates tho, already accumulating on the roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 We have a fairly sizable excavation open at work so I anticipate that our day tomorrow will be reminiscent of like, the experience of the navvies who built the trans-canada railroad circa 1884, but with less whiskey and racial violence 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I've been quiet here, mostly just lurking, but I am getting buried! Rates are incredible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2.4"* at ORD thus far. Can go ahead and file that in the trash. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I've been quiet here, mostly just lurking, but I am getting buried! Rates are incredible. Great to hear, as that is heading this way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I've been quiet here, mostly just lurking, but I am getting buried! Rates are incredible. Flakes big, or small but efficient?? Still waiting for it to pick up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 KMDW 152353Z 35016KT 1/4SM R31C/2800V4000FT +SN BLSN VV005 M11/M14 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP204 PRESENT WX DRSN SNINCR 2/17 4/017 P0001 60002 T11111139 11078 21128 58034 $ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Great to hear, as that is heading this way. Stebo! What do you make of that doughnut hole in SW Ohio. 1. What is that? 2. Is it a dry slot. 3. Will it affect us in NW OH and SE MI?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 nice long fetch on MKE radar coming ashore Lake IL/Cook border and extending SSW through central Cook county enhanced snows also coming up I-55 from central IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Frog Town said: Stebo! What do you make of that doughnut hole in SW Ohio. 1. What is that? 2. Is it a dry slot. 3. Will it affect us in NW OH and SE MI?? Yes there is a dryslot there and no that is heading south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 0600 PM SNOW 3 SW MIDWAY AIRPORT 41.75N 87.79W 02/15/2021 M6.0 INCH COOK IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS EVENT TOTAL AS OF 6 PM CST. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Stebo said: Yes there is a dryslot there and no that is heading south of us. Did the majority of models correctly predict this dryslot ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Snownado said: Did the majority of models correctly predict this dryslot ? Yes there was an expected dry slot to lift south of the commahead of the storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Conditions are something here. Just so much snow, it’s like fog. Just measured 3.2”. So in addition to part one’s 2.2”, up to 5.4” storm total. Will measure again at midnight. Going to be a long night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchener poster Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 About 5.5” this far. Still going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Definitely accumulating fast but it's more powdery than fluffy so not sure how high the ratios will end up being Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Going to squeak out being in the exact right spot for the pivot... let er rip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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