February 14-16 Winter Storm Part 2

[featherwx]

5 hours later and we’re finally getting some of the goods as that main lake effect band races south across downtown. My boss just told us all to stay home tomorrow 

[Jim Martin]

 

[schoeppeya]

1 minute ago, Snownado said:

I'm in dead center of Carmel also !

Seems like there is actually a decent sized Carmel crew on here

[JustMePatrick]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0093.html

SPC calling for 2+ inch per hour rates.

 Mesoscale Discussion 0093
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0252 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

   Areas affected...central/northern Illinois...southern Lower
   Michigan...northern/central Indiana...northern Ohio

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 152052Z - 160245Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy snow will overspread much
   of the discussion area from the southwest over the course of the
   afternoon/evening.  Localized areas will received 1-2+ inch per hour
   snow rates.

   DISCUSSION...Broad, large-scale lift associated with a mid-level
   wave across Kansas/Oklahoma continued to maintain a broad
   precipitation shield across much of the Midwest currently.  The
   precipitation continues to fall as snow (heavy at times) across much
   of southern Illinois and Indiana.  The precip shield is outpacing
   many models in its northeastward progression and will overspread
   much of the discussion area from south to north over the next
   several hours.

   Within the precipitation shield, it appears that a subtle shortwave
   over western Tennessee has provided forcing aloft for enhanced
   snowfall rates across southern Illinois and Indiana.  Most of the
   heavy snow reports have been concentrated in this area, and
   localized banding may result in 2+ inch/hour rates as this area
   spreads northeastward into Indiana/northwestern Ohio over the course
   of the afternoon.

   Farther west, a few bands have also produced heavier snow from the
   St. Louis area through central Illinois.  This axis of snow should
   shift northeastward toward the Chicago Metro area and portions of
   southern Lower Michigan over the next several hours, with 1
   inch/hour rates probable beneath heavier bands.

[Indystorm]

Just now, schoeppeya said:

Seems like there is actually a decent sized Carmel crew on here

And I used to live in Fortville for six years so I pay attention to what is going on down Indpls-Carmel way.

[miller.b.time]

Just now, Snownado said:

I'm in dead center of Carmel also !

Carmel partayyy lol

Does look like there's some 30+dbz stuff in Indy moving N as we speak.

[Snownado]

I measured 2" but I'm on the 4th floor of an apartment building so not sure how accurate it is. Maybe I will get more snow since I'm on the 4th floor ? 

[naptown]

16 minutes ago, Snownado said:

The flakes have been very tiny here. 

NE Indy is the same...no big flakes but it's coming down pretty good.

[cincy.wx]

after a brief stint with fat flakes, it’s now back to sleet. it lasted all of 20 minutes, i want to say.

[mimillman]

Looks like that band shifting back south slowly 

[sbnwx85]

Posting for posterity's sake. All of Indiana in a Winter Storm Warning. That just doesn't happen often. 

[A-L-E-K]

1.5 last hour

[IndTenn]

23 minutes ago, Snownado said:

The flakes have been very tiny here. 

Here too on the northwest side of Indy.  Visibility has dropped - there is a building 400 yards away that is now pretty much invisible, I don't know if due to fog or snow.

[Indystorm]

Nor do winter warnings often occur from southern TX to Maine.

[Snownado]

2 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Posting for posterity's sake. All of Indiana in a Winter Storm Warning. That just doesn't happen often. 

I've gotta think it happens more often than all of Texas being under a warning !

[Cary67]

26 minutes ago, miller.b.time said:

Awaiting further obliteration. (From the snow, not the beer. Unless... )

Nice can't go wrong with a stogie and liquid breakfast to go along with your snowstorm. Dragons milk and this help keep you warm.

[A-L-E-K]

This is gonna rival some of the local dogz

[frostfern]

While it isn't a bullseye IMBY, this storm has the perfect distribution to spread the 1 foot or more snow depth across almost all of the Lower Peninsula.

 

[michaelmantis]

Just now, Baum said:

on the door step of a certifiable lock justified.

Now if just the Snow Gods would have given us a heads up 2 months ago this was going to happen it would have saved a lot of complaining (and posts here) ;-)

I'm out of the Lake Snow part of this but great to see the scope of this and hope people take this seriously on the roads.

[WeatherMonger]

ILX AFD, they don't seem as worried as I am 

 

Quote

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
316 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

Moderate to at times heavy snow will continue through this evening
and eventually taper off to flurries overnight tonight.
Temperatures will be cold tonight, falling into the single digits
and even below zero is some locations near the Illinois River
Valley. Temperatures will warm into the teens Tuesday under partly
to mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

Snow is ongoing and increasing in intensity this afternoon across
central Illinois. Water vapor imagery reveals a negatively tilted
shortwave lifting across portions of mid Mississippi Valley,
ejecting out ahead of main upper low centered over eastern KS.
Snow is expected to peak across the area through around midnight
tonight when the H5 low finally begins to shift across central
Illinois marking the back edge of the accumulating snow.

No major changes to the going forecast made this afternoon with
the heaviest snow still expected to be focused over the eastern
part of the state. From this afternoon through tonight, in
addition to snow that fell last night into this morning, an
additional 3 to 6 inches of snow is possible along the Illinois
River Valley (under the Winter Weather Advisory), 4 to 8 inches
from the I-55 to I-57 corridors, and 6 to 10 inches east of I-57.
Latest RAP does depict a modest layer of FGen over east central
Illinois and regional radar does show a couple bands of heavier
snow lifting north. Does seem the better banding potential will be
through the remainder of the afternoon and then will diminish
with time this evening. Under the heavier bands, visibility less
than a quarter mile and snow rates of around an inch per hour or
slightly higher are possible, at least briefly

 

 

[Hoosier]

Coming down good now.

[RCNYILWX]

Steady -SN now, flake size not bad. We'll see if early arrival of synoptic snow means anything for totals. The NAMs keep snow going until 13-14z tomorrow, so for areas favored for lake enhancement, assuming they're right on end time, could boost totals an inch or two.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[BigHoss]

Talk me out of this busting HARD in IND

[cyclone77]

First flakes flying here.  RAP has upped us to over 0.20" of precip now, and the HRRR and NAMs have bumped us into the high teens.  Should hopefully be able to fluff 3-4" out of that, which is a HUGE win compared to how this looked a few days ago.

[fluoronium]

Snow coming down fairly heavy right now. Flake size is tiny compared to the huge flakes I was getting with the light snow in the morning

[NoDoppler4TnySandz]

Afternoon onset is predominately sleet/fine snow pellets -- definitely not the fat dendrite flakes that I was hoping to see; certainly the track of the storm and the deeper low has knocked down our forecast totals down in SE Cincy. --- i would guess 5-7"...going to be hard to get a good measurement...I guess our drifts here won't be as bad as East Central Indiana.

Still expecting a spectacular show at some point this afternoon or evening.

[geddyweather]

Pound town here north of Lima, OH. SN with great dendrites, intensity continues to ramp up as the hours pass. Definitely starting to get windier as well. Will measure at 5pm.

[Chicago Storm]

2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

First flakes flying here.  RAP has upped us to over 0.20" of precip now, and the HRRR and NAMs have bumped us into the high teens.  Should hopefully be able to fluff 3-4" out of that, which is a HUGE win compared to how this looked a few days ago.

18z RGEM with 0.19" out your way as well.

[miller.b.time]

6 minutes ago, BigHoss said:

Talk me out of this busting HARD in IND

IND still seems very much to think that this is on track to verify as expected. We're not in the true heart of the event yet, which should begin in a couple of hours, if I'm not mistaken.

The 3:30 disco from IND is worth a read to put your mind at ease:
 

Quote

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

Satellite imagery continues to blossom over the Ohio Valley this afternoon, with water vapor
indicating growing depth of atmospheric moisture. Visible satellite imagery indicates some
convective layers across Western TN/KY, which is all steadily advecting north and expected
to move across Central/Southern Indiana later this evening. Precipitable water at the sfc
is also on the rise, with values ranging from .4 inches across the north to .6 inches across
Southern Indiana. Radar reflectivity across the area continues to be on the rise in volume
and intensity this afternoon. The next line of stronger snowfall is approaching Crawfordsville
to Edinburgh to Rushville line. This area was steadily lifting north and expected to be in
the Indy metro area by 4pm.

Vertical lift in the lower levels will be robust this evening as well, which should aid
in dendrite size growth and volume as the greater snowfall rates increase. Further compounding
the complexity to the atmosphere is the layer of anomalous warm/moist air steadily advecting
north, eluded to in the prior discussion in regards to the precipitable water.

Thermal profiles indicate that dendrite size should increase marginally over the
next few hours, coupled with the deeper moisture aloft. Unfortunately pressure change
will become mixed to the surface, pushing gusts to between 20-30 mph, further exacerbating
conditions bringing visibilities down to less than 1 mile frequently, due to the fine
dendrite size. Cant rule out whiteout conditions periodically this evening as well.

The main concern for this evening will be on the precise path of the 850mb low.
Typically in more robust winter storms this indicates the location of the deformation
axis, which is also the location of the heaviest snowfall due to the forcing and supportive
atmospheric conditions. Timing for this feature still progged to be in the early/mid
evening timeframe across Central Indiana.

 

[Baum]

LOT Snippet:

ARRIVE VERY QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND   
EVENING. THIS SNOW WILL HIT HARD AND FAST.  
  
THIS IS CERTAINLY ONE HECK OF A SYSTEM,