HVSnowLover Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Arrival time east of the river? Around 1 pm. Not ideal but if it comes in like a wall we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 30 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Friday was light snow all day though, if its heavy and it looks like this comes in heavy I'm not sure temps will matter as much (at least up to a point, yea above 35 it's going to have a hard time accumulating) if it's heavy it can stick right away even in April.....remember April 2003 and April 2018! 6-8 inches of snow all during the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: if it's heavy it can stick right away even in April.....remember April 2003 and April 2018! 6-8 inches of snow all during the day! A cold airmass is more vital than the sun angle and it's still only February. The biggest problem for tomorrow is the wind direction rather than daylight. However in marginal situations the daylight does matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Ha 5.4 at MMU? This will catch people off guard out my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brett said: They are going with 1 to 2 inches with isolated 3 inch amounts at the highest elevations well northwest of the city That sounds about right. Eastern PA to NW Jersey could see 3-5. I'm expecting 2-3 by me in MHV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowzone Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: if it's heavy it can stick right away even in April.....remember April 2003 and April 2018! 6-8 inches of snow all during the day! I remember April 6 - 7, 1982 snowstorm while living in Hawthorne, NJ. Sunny and 55 degrees on April 5 with approaching storm. Temps dropped to 35 by midnight when rain started, then by 12:30am turned over to snow. I had 4 or 5 inches accumulate by dawn. Temps for that storm were much colder as they dropped down into the low 20's by sunrise and stayed there all day. Heavy snow continued all morning and became lighter by mid to late afternoon. I ended up with 12 inches from that storm. And very low temps for a couple of days after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 I'll take 2-4". Only need about 3/4" to reach 60" for the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 4 hours ago, Brett said: I think they are going to have to issue advisories the afternoon models are coming in with 2 to 4 inches tomorrow west and north of the city. This went from a nothing event to possibly a plowable snow. only advisory in NJ is for Warren County as of 3 pm. WSW from KPHI (cod.edu) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 All: 18z/21 NAM FOUS suggests a pretty good chance of 0.2 to 1.5" snow event in the 18z/22 ob for NYC CP. We'll see if the increasingly faster NAM and reality are truth. Meanwhile no changes to prior early morning updated thread. With snow in the air excepted into NYC, will begin the OBS thread at about 5AM, Monday. Still a short fuse attempt at targeting best spot for 3- at most 6" in a 5 hour period. Whether or not it falls at 33F, rate so heavy for a short time that will make treated roads mess, probably imo, even to NYC, till melting takes over when rates decrease or it changes to rain. Won't add anything more til early Monday. Have good night. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Looking at all models and the current cold, but ‘staling’ airmass, 2-4” (maybe one stray 5” report in higher elevations) most of Morris, Sussex, W Passaic, N Somerset, Warren, N Hunterdon, 1-3” W Essex, W Union, S/C Somerset, most of Bergen, C-1” NYC and all other areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 3-5 in the LV with pancake size flakes expected Under a WWA. If it does snow 5 inches, will hit 60 in for the year at my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Albedoman said: 3-5 in the LV with pancake size flakes expected Under a WWA. If it does snow 5 inches, will hit 60 in for the year at my house I'm confident we will hit or surpass 60" for the year tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Once the sun angle got lower around 5:00 it cooled off quickly. 28/11 now. Let’s see what tomorrow brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 26.8 here with clear skies and very deep snow cover. Should really drop as sun has gone down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 NWS regionalized snowfall forecast as issued in their 4PM products, also the HREF in gradations of 1,2,4 (blue shades, green is 6), and the NWS Blend of Models snowfall by 12z/Saturday. That gives enough snow to pop CP close to#5 by then. My guess is that NYC will get an accumulative of 0.2 to 1.4" midday Monday with possibly a little more Friday night-Saturday morning. Probably the much lighter amount (0.2" Monday) but it's timing with the 18z ob and melting the keys to less than the max of 1.4". My feeling it will snow close to a moderate rate by 1230-45PM in NYC. The answer by this time Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 NAM ticked a little further east and colder but drier. Looks like just NW of the city might get 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 25 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: NAM ticked a little further east and colder but drier. Looks like just NW of the city might get 1-2 inches. more then that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 HRRR/Nam continue to suggest a thump of wet snow to the city. 2-3" west of city wouldn't surprise me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 29 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: more then that I mean just NW of the city. Northern NJ west of I287 up into the Hudson Valley Highlands may get more than that. I recognize NAM looks pretty cold, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 RGEM also came in colder, looks like a nice burst of snow even into the city at the start is looking more possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: RGEM also came in colder, looks like a nice burst of snow even into the city at the start is looking more possible. Strong convective elements to this line. We could be talking 2"+ per hour rates for a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Gfs and Para snowier for the city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 9 hours ago, Snowzone said: I remember April 6 - 7, 1982 snowstorm while living in Hawthorne, NJ. Sunny and 55 degrees on April 5 with approaching storm. Temps dropped to 35 by midnight when rain started, then by 12:30am turned over to snow. I had 4 or 5 inches accumulate by dawn. Temps for that storm were much colder as they dropped down into the low 20's by sunrise and stayed there all day. Heavy snow continued all morning and became lighter by mid to late afternoon. I ended up with 12 inches from that storm. And very low temps for a couple of days after. the funny thing was that entire week was cold and we had another daytime snow event a week later! I wonder what was going on back then to make it so cold so late? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 The latest 04z HRRR continues to print out a lot of QPF. Over 0.5" for everybody except Sussex, Orange, an Putnam Counties. Even a few isolated areas near 0.75". Snow near and west of 95 with a sharp cutoff. It looks like a summer squall line. I wonder if some of the QPF could get lost to graupel. If rates are intense as some of the mesomodels indicate, it could get pretty wild tomorrow even into or close to the City. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 22, 2021 Author Share Posted February 22, 2021 Am not posting on this thread anymore as have shifted to the new OBS thread for 2/22-23. Agree w the above that it will be looking wild for an hr or two midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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