wdrag Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 612A/21: The answer to the thread is yes. Questions seem to be centered on bullseye convective snowfall of 3" in 3 hours...it's location, and whether NYC can have enough snow fall between Noon and 3PM to cool the temp enough to stick to the snowboard in CP? Modeling differs, and snowmelt during the noon hour could preclude measuring CP but an inch is an option even to BWI/PHL/NYC. Not saying that it will happen in those urban centers, but it's possible and then also capturing the observed snowfall via a report. Meanwhile, I see this as a shorter term advisory issuance for portions of the hilly terrain subforum, primarily e pA/w NJ (maybe se NYS/Litchfield Hills?) to handle the short term rapidly changing road conditions in a 3-5 hour period of snow there with embedded 1"/hr snowfall rate. Heaviest for now targets somewhere from MD into NJ/e PA. That may become a short fuse convective snowfall consideration. Isolated 5" possible somewhere e PA/w NJ? General snowfall amounts se NYS/CT less than w NJ/ePA but still 1 to possibly 3". Will probably begin an obs thread Monday morning at 5A if it still looks like NYC members will see some wet snow to start. (I didn't mention, that a flurry is possible prior to sunrise Monday, but that flurry is not the primary concern). Four graphics added: the 09z/21 NWS deterministic snowfall, the 09z WPC ensemble chance of 1+" of snow Monday, and 4+" and the 00z/21 HPC HREF (high resolution ensemble snowfall). 718A/20: Dropped the 24th as the window of opportunity focuses on the 22nd, but with the second short wave possibly depositng a minor amount of nuisance snow showers on Tuesday. Timing has delayed slightly in the modeling to essentially a 10A-4P time from on Monday, with melting in NYC/LI compromising measurable chances but to I95, there is a small chance of 1" accums in a somewhat convective band of snow. 528A/19: Drpped Sunday Feb 21 from the topic title. This event may be running slightly slower than earlier projections which reduces the chance of any accumulation NYC-LI but not a complete zero chance there. Otherwise, modeling continues to like high terrain snowfall of 1-4", even an inch possible to just inland from I95 Monday morning the 22nd, changing to band of heavy rain showers for LI/s CT during the afternoon. Have not eliminated the 23rd/24thfrom the topic because of the trailing second short wave which may induce scattered snow-rain showers into the forum. Primary accumulation risk appears to be the 22nd. 518-32A/18: Just rain for much of the forum (trace of snow at the start?), except high terrain nw edge which remains with potential for wet snowfall of 1-4" in a few hours. Modeling is trending a little warmer and no expectations of low s of the forum until too late, if then. Also, no plan for a separate OBS thread for this probable high terrain only-extreme northwest part of the forum thread (I84 vicinity), barring a faster early morning onset of the primary qpf which would then allow snow in NYC. This NYC snow option is not currently expected due to 00z-06z/18 warmer boundary layer temp modeling. 605A/17: Continues on the books. One graphic added. Appears some sort of secondary gets going s of LI, maybe too late to shut off boundary layer warming but ensembles and multiple op modeling have some potential for 3"+, mainly high terrain. Will adjust the window of opportunity in a day or two, once am sure. 533A/16: Modeling trying for a T-2" in the I78 northward portion of the forum around the 22nd. Not impossible to see a burst of WAA snow Monday morning the 22nd (how much melts before the 18z ob) and a CAA shorter period of snow the 24th. No low centers south of LI at this time. 635A/15... changed description to yesterdays intended will the LOW be south Added one graphic showing the GEFS trend from then 00z/15 modeling for a digging amplifying short wave through the Great Lakes ~the 23rd-24th. Still north but modeling has a little snow for the forum. Could be a dud but we'll see. ~230P/14 initial: Since members are already posting beyond what will be a difficult week of weather in our NYC subforum (15-19), have offered a 4 day window for one of the two well defined short Aleutian short waves to continue some of the modelings signals, dropping a few inches of snow in our area. Modeling (12z/14 EPS, EC and GFSv16 op) tends to favor the higher terrain of the I84 corridor. It is getting later in the winter so odds may not favor much, if anything, in NYC. At this point, if this fails, I think it will fail warmer and to our north since 50/50 blocking is northward transiting, allowing for warming aloft down here. Will update this topic after we get through the morning of the 16th, including tightening the window of opportunity (if it still remains?) as we draw closer to T0, inside of 6 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 If it's not going to snow may as well be mild out. This seems to be the last threat for a while but definitely the Thursday storm is the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 This could be a dud thread, but modeling still has a little snow for the I78 north portion of the forum, but low passage NORTH of our area which doesn't bode well. Still something to monitor but not pin a lot of hope upon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 15 hours ago, Brett said: It looks like the European blows up it up into a big storm the beginning of next week but it has it very far north of here it looks like it hits Maine. I am wondering if Thursday is it for us for awhile things seem to be slowing down quite a bit come the weekend Hi. I'm not a long ranger. I don't study seasonal base states, MJO phases, and not sure how accurate the Ensemble Oscillations are beyond 11 days. With the Nina base state the southeastern ridge may want to get dominant, but somehow, I don't think we're done. (too early for mud season). If this was March 21, then probably done for LI, but things happen... including 'thread the needles'. Multiple modeling is trying... trying to go -NAO beyond 10 days but will it be effective cooling for us and can the EPO go back negative? Taking one event at a time. 18-19, and 21-24 to me continue on the books. Do you like the GEFS... then it's north, but even that has lowering heights and spread in solutions. Do you like the EPS,? Then you add a period of snow to the forum, albeit wet and probably changing to rain I80 south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 528A/19: Drpped Sunday Feb 21 from the topic title. This event may be running slightly slower than earlier projections which reduces the chance of any accumulation NYC-LI but not a complete zero chance there. Otherwise, modeling continues to like high terrain snowfall of 1-4", even an inch possible to just inland from I95 Monday morning the 22nd, changing to band of heavy rain showers for LI/s CT during the afternoon. Have not eliminated the 23rd/24thfrom the topic because of the trailing second short wave which may induce scattered snow-rain showers into the forum. Primary accumulation risk appears to be the 22nd. At 802A, added the new 06z/19 GGEM expectation of snowfall by Noon the 22nd. NYC is included. Whether CP measures a small amount with melting possible? I don't know but snow is coming (80% likelihood in my estimation) Monday morning to the I95 region northwestward. Still uncertain is the southeast edge of seemingly small 2-8 hour accums, though 3-4" in some of eastern PA/western NJ is not impossible-depends on location of best lift/waa as a short wave attempts to go negative through our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 My wife needs surgery next Friday and we have doctor stuff Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday leading up to it so small or nothing is my preference until she's back home and doesn't need to be moved around. See what you can do to make this one go away. Thanx. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 5 hours ago, gravitylover said: My wife needs surgery next Friday and we have doctor stuff Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday leading up to it so small or nothing is my preference until she's back home and doesn't need to be moved around. See what you can do to make this one go away. Thanx. I pray all goes well for your wife/partner. As always ..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 6 hours ago, gravitylover said: My wife needs surgery next Friday and we have doctor stuff Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday leading up to it so small or nothing is my preference until she's back home and doesn't need to be moved around. See what you can do to make this one go away. Thanx. how's her ankle? sorry if i am confusing you for another poster but i thought your wife was the one who slipped down the steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 6 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: how's her ankle? sorry if i am confusing you for another poster but i thought your wife was the one who slipped down the steps. Yep that was me. It's pretty bad with 2 fractures, a radial and a bone chip, and a torn deltoid ligament. She's going to be laid up for a few months at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 20, 2021 Author Share Posted February 20, 2021 718A/20: Dropped the 24th as the window of opportunity focuses on the 22nd, but with the second short wave possibly depositng a minor amount of nuisance snow showers on Tuesday. Timing has delayed slightly in the modeling to essentially a 10A-4P time from on Monday, with melting in NYC/LI compromising measurable chances but to I95, there is a small chance of 1" accums in a somewhat convective band of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Around and north of 84 this is looking like it could be a quick hitting 1-2 inches. Thermals look to support mostly snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: GGEM and UKMET are similar to this. It seems as if it might be a little too warm, but several models are insisting that we'll see a 1 to 2 inch snow event here monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 On 2/19/2021 at 12:56 PM, gravitylover said: My wife needs surgery next Friday and we have doctor stuff Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday leading up to it so small or nothing is my preference until she's back home and doesn't need to be moved around. See what you can do to make this one go away. Thanx. I hope all goes well for her surgery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Looks like most models now have a pretty nice burst of snow Monday even down to parts of the city but surface temps in the mid to upper 30s so I am skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Looks like most models now have a pretty nice burst of snow Monday even down to parts of the city but surface temps in the mid to upper 30s so I am skeptical. 12z Euro just came in very robust with several inches of snow northwest of NYC (much of northern NJ). Very close though with my area and the city near the edge of the accumulating snows. I'd feel very optimistic about this event if it was coming in early in the morning, but near midday concerns me and makes it more likely it's an event for north and west. We'll see though ... the airmass is decent and it wouldn't be surpring if it works out well, knowing how this winter has been going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: I hope all goes well for her surgery. Thank you Don. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 3 hours ago, winterwx21 said: 12z Euro just came in very robust with several inches of snow northwest of NYC (much of northern NJ). Very close though with my area and the city near the edge of the accumulating snows. I'd feel very optimistic about this event if it was coming in early in the morning, but near midday concerns me and makes it more likely it's an event for north and west. We'll see though ... the airmass is decent and it wouldn't be surpring if it works out well, knowing how this winter has been going. Yeah, the fact that it's coming in mid day is a problem with surface temps in mid-upper 30's in the afternoon. Even by me north of 84 Albany is talking about snow to rain/snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 612A/21: Questions seem to be centered on bullseye convective snowfall of 3" in 3 hours...it's location, and whether NYC can have enough snow fall between Noon and 3PM to cool the temp enough to stick to the snowboard in CP? Modeling differs, and snowmelt during the noon hour could preclude measuring CP but an inch is an option even to BWI/PHL/NYC. Not saying that it will happen in those urban centers, but it's possible and then also capturing the observed snowfall via a report. Meanwhile, I see this as a shorter term advisory issuance for portions of the hilly terrain subforum, primarily e pA/w NJ (maybe se NYS/Litchfield Hills?) to handle the short term rapidly changing road conditions in a 3-5 hour period of snow there with embedded 1"/hr snowfall rate. Heaviest for now targets somewhere from MD into NJ/e PA. That may become a short fuse convective snowfall consideration. Isolated 5" possible somewhere e PA/w NJ? General snowfall amounts se NYS/CT less than w NJ/ePA but still 1 to possibly 3". Will probably begin an obs thread Monday morning at 5A if it still looks like NYC members will see some wet snow to start. (I didn't mention, that a flurry is possible prior to sunrise Monday, but that flurry is not the primary concern). Four graphics added to the top of the of the thread: the 09z/21 NWS deterministic snowfall, the 09z WPC ensemble chance of 1+" of snow Monday, and 4+" and the 00z/21 HPC HREF (high resolution ensemble snowfall). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 The 12z NAM and 3 km NAM have shifted the eastern edge of accumulating snow a little close to NYC than the 6z run. The area around Allentown and its immediate north and west looks to be in line for the heaviest amounts, a theme consistent with a lot of the other guidance though 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Looks like the best snows would favor Eastern PA to Northern NJ with lighter snows for the HV and mix changing to rain along the coast. Northern NJ seems to be the jackpot of the NYC area this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 56 minutes ago, Brett said: Some of the new models are showing a plowable snow not too far to the west of the city this is looking much more impressive now than it did yesterday. The HRDPS model has 4 inches into my area the European GFS 16 RGEM and NAM all bumped up totals this is starting to look like a 2 to 4 inch event possibly Agree think its a WWA advisory type event for Northern NJ west of 287 and west of the hudson river in SE NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Definitely came a bit SE now has me starting as snow but not expecting any accumulation here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 52 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Definitely came a bit SE now has me starting as snow but not expecting any accumulation here. It's all about timing here. Had this arrived overnight it could've put down advisory snows as far east as the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's all about timing here. Had this arrived overnight it could've put down advisory snows as far east as the city. Yea agree somewhat although I'm not sure how big of an impact daylight has on temps yet although it's definitely starting to. I guess if this is true we can hope it comes in an hour or two early which sometimes happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Arrival time east of the river? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brett said: The sun is strong enough to melt everything on the roads my area was melting with the light snow even without being salted on Friday afternoon Friday was light snow all day though, if its heavy and it looks like this comes in heavy I'm not sure temps will matter as much (at least up to a point, yea above 35 it's going to have a hard time accumulating) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brett said: I think they are going to have to issue advisories the afternoon models are coming in with 2 to 4 inches tomorrow west and north of the city. This went from a nothing event to possibly a plowable snow. This was looking like a 1-3 inch type event N and W for a few days now. The models have gotten colder over the last few runs so NYC metro should see some snow too but how much actually accumulates is the question with the bulk of precip in afternoon. I think it will snow at 1'/hr for a brief time so that will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Arrival time east of the river? About noon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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