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February 18th ?19th?


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Whomever mentioned the 'two pulsed' idea, that is correct.

The thread opener ... I mentioned that the models et al were flaming a lead acceleration of the mid level wind field along the W - NW arc of the vestigial SE/West Atl ridging... 

What is fascinating about that is that among the various guidance,  it's not really associated with a S/W approach / exit jet mechanics nosing in..  It's actually L/W compression of the heights that is triggering that acceleration...  One that is also prevalent in these recent NAM guidance; but as that acceleration first encounters the nascent polar-arctic air mass about to be put into place from the interior MA up through New England regions, the NAM is then producing a pretty potent isentropicl lifting band betrayed by that navy blue with nested magenta pixels in there....

That wanes off as that accelerating jet field pass by - lull ensues.  Then...the NAM uses the immediately heeled trough to then generate a paltry coastal ...but perhaps enough in the latter mechanics to still swath a moderate snow/CCB genesis as noted... 

Is all that right?  Not sure... The numerical/ Globals appear to make distinctions between those two 'events' more seamless ...like the 00z GFS ...which ended up with a 24 hour event, managing somehow to pull that off in what quite possibly could be the fastest possible flow there can be on the planet - man that's getting lucky ...

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11 hours ago, George001 said:

The navy is a great model, it’s extremely underrated in my opinion. My biggest forecast busts are when I ignore the navy because it’s not showing what I want. My best forecasts come when I blend the navy euro and Canadian. 

 

The navy model sucks and should never be mentioned again

  • Haha 1
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Mm.. this event I think has potential to modulate in the models more so than the usual amount for monitoring/ .. deterministic efforts at less than D4

I'm noticing that there is a 'staggered' relaying of jet mechanics ... a whopping large amount too, that is ripping over southern California ... while the L/W axis is amplifying toward west TX over the next 48 or so hours. That lagged feed can morph things in short lead ...seemingly out of nowhere.

If a Pacific wave is alone out there...I think the assimilation may perform with higher proficiency for limiting 'missing' crucial momentum aspects... I'm not sure that is the case when you got caboosed "punch" jet that is/a some 3000 km long tube of wind at 125 kts driving into the backside from off the Pacific grid.  At 300 mb in the oper. GFS it's 150!   I am wondering how the assimilation tech handles that kind of integral feed -

The NAM does not have as much of this latter arriving mechanics ...but given to the flat trajectory - overall - coming off the Pacific and tracing that wind tunnel back in the runs, its still not even in the NAM grid ... I'm sure it's getting relayed into the NAM's grid by something ... I wouldn't trust the NAM ( heh, goes without saying)

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33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem has 3 lows

 

Long duration event

Canadian appears to have moved in that direction as well, it was originally modeled as a fast mover with a more limited ceiling just yesterday but all of a sudden new lows came out of nowhere. Instead of this being one low it’s 2-3 lows, which increases the duration and total snowfall. While this isn’t a blizzard with rapid accumulations, it appears to be 30+ hours of moderate snow which can and will produce significant snowfall. We had one storm like that in feb 2015 that led to 2 feet of snow in the Boston area.

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