78Blizzard Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM and RGEM both colder @ 0z at all levels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Gfs with a really Nice snow event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Gfs with a really Nice snow event. Yea wow cold run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Solid 8 to 12 from DC to Maine sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs with a really Nice snow event. Long duration too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 V16 is all snow too. Except maybe the Cape/Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Solid 8 to 12 from DC to Maine sweet Miller A 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 May be too amped but the GFS is mid lvl magical juggernaut ... but the QPF is substantial in long trajectory format anyway and looks like 8-12” most areas save for the s coast without meso / way early to get into that. that 500 mb vector containing that huge pulsed wind max riding over that cold would likely jam inflow jets straight into a very steep elevated frontal slope. I bet GFS 850-700 mb frontigen has a bright band 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Solid 8 to 12 from DC to Maine sweet Looking good for sure. We’d do much better than the 10:1 maps while SNE gets ripped with denser snow. Large coastal plain swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Miller A Been a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I’m just gonna be straight with you guys and tell you, I’m as much of a weenie as it gets and can get carried away with my forecasts sometimes, which has led to me getting muted on the other forum. I want to make sure that doesn’t happen again here so I wanted to ask if there are any guidelines I should follow to avoid that. By the way, while I’m not carried away over a specific model run, I’ll give you guys some advice on how the George model works. Take my forecasts and cut them in half (take 1/3rd of my snow forecasts if it’s a Miller b), and then take the output. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, George001 said: I’m just gonna be straight with you guys and tell you, I’m as much of a weenie as it gets and can get carried away with my forecasts sometimes, which has led to me getting muted on the other forum. I want to make sure that doesn’t happen again here so I wanted to ask if there are any guidelines I should follow to avoid that. By the way, while I’m not carried away over a specific model run, I’ll give you guys some advice on how the George model works. Take my forecasts and cut them in half (take 1/3rd of my snow forecasts if it’s a Miller b), and then take the output. One thought is that you do that calculation before you share it. I can’t remember all those directions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Sound the alarm. Snowstorm en route! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, George001 said: I’m just gonna be straight with you guys and tell you, I’m as much of a weenie as it gets and can get carried away with my forecasts sometimes, which has led to me getting muted on the other forum. I want to make sure that doesn’t happen again here so I wanted to ask if there are any guidelines I should follow to avoid that. By the way, while I’m not carried away over a specific model run, I’ll give you guys some advice on how the George model works. Take my forecasts and cut them in half (take 1/3rd of my snow forecasts if it’s a Miller b), and then take the output. Well then cut your own forecasts by a third. If you lack confidence you will not be taken seriously. Take a breath and think before you post 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, weathafella said: Sound the alarm. Snowstorm en route! Bullets in the chamber as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Well then cut your own forecasts by a third. If you lack confidence you will not be taken seriously. Take a breath and think before you post I was confident, but then I busted because I overestimated the strength of the low multiple times in earlier storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 If that happens there’s a band doing 2/3”/hr easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, George001 said: I’m just gonna be straight with you guys and tell you, I’m as much of a weenie as it gets and can get carried away with my forecasts sometimes, which has led to me getting muted on the other forum. I want to make sure that doesn’t happen again here so I wanted to ask if there are any guidelines I should follow to avoid that. By the way, while I’m not carried away over a specific model run, I’ll give you guys some advice on how the George model works. Take my forecasts and cut them in half (take 1/3rd of my snow forecasts if it’s a Miller b), and then take the output. Hows the Navy ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 GGEM is all snow for at least north of MA/CT/RI border...it does flip south of there to sleet but it’s near the end. Pretty impressive runs tonight. The upper air has improved quite a bit on the 00z suite. It opens up possibilities of something better than a mere moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Cmc looks like the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Hows the Navy ? The navy is a great model, it’s extremely underrated in my opinion. My biggest forecast busts are when I ignore the navy because it’s not showing what I want. My best forecasts come when I blend the navy euro and Canadian. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, George001 said: The navy is a great model, it’s extremely underrated in my opinion. My biggest forecast busts are when I ignore the navy because it’s not showing what I want. My best forecasts come when I blend the navy euro and Canadian. I'm also on the other forum with you Welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 thanks for the welcome guys, I’m happy to be here and look forward to learning and getting better at making forecasts. Hopefully we can get multiple Miller bs before the end of winter to track! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 GGEM has half the qpf of the GFS. Not as amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, George001 said: I was confident, but then I busted because I overestimated the strength of the low multiple times in earlier storms. Always better to go more conservative early on, and then increase if need be, if the modeling becomes more robust as the system closes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM is all snow for at least north of MA/CT/RI border...it does flip south of there to sleet but it’s near the end. Pretty impressive runs tonight. The upper air has improved quite a bit on the 00z suite. It opens up possibilities of something better than a mere moderate event. Things don't appear to be done trending either. Could it end up being a big miller A storm for the entire northeast? I still think that's unlikely but possible. Still worried about the SE ridge amping things up as we get closer though in this case Thursday's storm wouldn't be happening without it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 H5 trend over the past 48hrs has been pretty remarkable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Isn’t it more of a Miller b? When I looked at the models I saw 2 lows, one in the mid west and one off the coast. Newer runs appear to be strengthening the low offshore more with a weaker Midwest low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Ukie is going against the grain and warmer @ 0z than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: Ukie is going against the grain and warmer @ 0z than 12z. Good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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