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February 18th ?19th?


Typhoon Tip
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May be too amped but the GFS is mid lvl magical juggernaut ... but the QPF is substantial in long trajectory format anyway and looks like 8-12” most areas save for the s coast without meso / way early to get into that. 
 

that 500 mb vector containing that huge pulsed wind max riding over that cold would likely jam inflow jets straight into a very steep elevated frontal slope. I bet GFS 850-700 mb frontigen has a bright band 

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I’m just gonna be straight with you guys and tell you, I’m as much of a weenie as it gets and can get carried away with my forecasts sometimes, which has led to me getting muted on the other forum. I want to make sure that doesn’t happen again here so I wanted to ask if there are any guidelines I should follow to avoid that. By the way, while I’m not carried away over a specific model run, I’ll give you guys some advice on how the George model works. Take my forecasts and cut them in half (take 1/3rd of my snow forecasts if it’s a Miller b), and then take the output.

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1 minute ago, George001 said:

I’m just gonna be straight with you guys and tell you, I’m as much of a weenie as it gets and can get carried away with my forecasts sometimes, which has led to me getting muted on the other forum. I want to make sure that doesn’t happen again here so I wanted to ask if there are any guidelines I should follow to avoid that. By the way, while I’m not carried away over a specific model run, I’ll give you guys some advice on how the George model works. Take my forecasts and cut them in half (take 1/3rd of my snow forecasts if it’s a Miller b), and then take the output.

One thought is that you do that calculation before you share it.  I can’t remember all those directions 

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2 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m just gonna be straight with you guys and tell you, I’m as much of a weenie as it gets and can get carried away with my forecasts sometimes, which has led to me getting muted on the other forum. I want to make sure that doesn’t happen again here so I wanted to ask if there are any guidelines I should follow to avoid that. By the way, while I’m not carried away over a specific model run, I’ll give you guys some advice on how the George model works. Take my forecasts and cut them in half (take 1/3rd of my snow forecasts if it’s a Miller b), and then take the output.

Well then cut your own forecasts by a third. If you lack confidence you will not be taken seriously.  Take a breath and think before you post 

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10 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m just gonna be straight with you guys and tell you, I’m as much of a weenie as it gets and can get carried away with my forecasts sometimes, which has led to me getting muted on the other forum. I want to make sure that doesn’t happen again here so I wanted to ask if there are any guidelines I should follow to avoid that. By the way, while I’m not carried away over a specific model run, I’ll give you guys some advice on how the George model works. Take my forecasts and cut them in half (take 1/3rd of my snow forecasts if it’s a Miller b), and then take the output.

Hows the Navy ?

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GGEM is all snow for at least north of MA/CT/RI border...it does flip south of there to sleet but it’s near the end. Pretty impressive runs tonight. The upper air has improved quite a bit on the 00z suite. It opens up possibilities of something better than a mere moderate event. 

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3 minutes ago, George001 said:

The navy is a great model, it’s extremely underrated in my opinion. My biggest forecast busts are when I ignore the navy because it’s not showing what I want. My best forecasts come when I blend the navy euro and Canadian. 

 

I'm also on the other forum with you

Welcome

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM is all snow for at least north of MA/CT/RI border...it does flip south of there to sleet but it’s near the end. Pretty impressive runs tonight. The upper air has improved quite a bit on the 00z suite. It opens up possibilities of something better than a mere moderate event. 

Things don't appear to be done trending either.

Could it end up being a big miller A storm for the entire northeast? I still think that's unlikely but possible. 

Still worried about the SE ridge amping things up as we get closer though in this case Thursday's storm wouldn't be happening without it. 

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