CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Should be quiet until later in the aftn I think. Srn CT though will need to be watched for a sneaky surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Should be quiet until later in the aftn I think. Srn CT though will need to be watched for a sneaky surprise. DC sleet lol Ft Worth 24 inches this year DC 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's been fine in the near term. You have had a rough winter though. I’ve done well overall . B+. You on the other hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: DC sleet lol Ft Worth 24 inches this year DC 4 24? LOL, more like 5-6" this year at DFW. But yeah, DC bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve done well overall . B+. You on the other hand. Salesman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 06z Reggie went back southeast. Kind of looks like the euro. Pretty big model difference for so close to the event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 06z Reggie went back southeast. Kind of looks like the euro. Pretty big model difference for so close to the event though. That's a pretty lame solution for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 06z Reggie went back southeast. Kind of looks like the euro. Pretty big model difference for so close to the event though. Same discrepancy with every system this winter it seems...two camps right up to go time almost it seems. Quite the year for modeling differences so close in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1-3”/2-4” mby seems safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 That is a bad bust in DC, but NAM FTW. It sniffed that warm tongue out like it usually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Shouldn’t that mean the father nw solutions are likely to be more correct with the sleet already encroaching on NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Shouldn’t that mean the father nw solutions are likely to be more correct with the sleet already encroaching on NYC? There is no sleet anywhere near NYC right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That is a bad bust in DC, but NAM FTW. It sniffed that warm tongue out like it usually does. DC is already mixing Models once again were too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I don't think the sleet that far north means much. The forcing and air flow will shunt that ENE anyways. Basically it means a more narrow all snow area near NJ and NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: There is no sleet anywhere near NYC right now It’s racing north on dual pol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s racing north on dual pol Philly keeps switching back and forth from a mix to all snow. DC and Baltimore is having a bad bust now. Mostly sleet there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7 hours ago, wxsniss said: Thanks Don I've never used PMM before. Anyone know how probability-matched mean is calculated and when to use it compared to the regular mean? I don’t have the calculation, but there are some papers that suggest that it is more accurate than the mean, because it addresses ensemble member bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Places in Central NJ are already over 4 inches with this storm. They are getting the intense snow bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Does anyone here still post on a PC? I do. Most of my posting is at work when I am on the computer. When I make comments about maps that I misread it's usually from the small image on the phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathergeekMD Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Should be quiet until later in the aftn I think. Srn CT though will need to be watched for a sneaky surprise. I’ll pipe up if we start seeing anything interesting down here. Madison, CT, (3mi inland on the Hammonasset River. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Places in Central NJ are already over 4 inches with this storm. They are getting the intense snow bands. Sleet pelting the windows of the cruiser like Antifa protesters. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: ASEMATT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't think the sleet that far north means much. The forcing and air flow will shunt that ENE anyways. Basically it means a more narrow all snow area near NJ and NYC. Sweet! Ripping here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 The GFS is aggressive with this....toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 DC busting due to the warm air getting farther north than expected is a good sign for us, as the models did not have the low that far north and west. When combined with the models ramping up a bit I see no reason to change my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, George001 said: DC busting due to the warm air getting farther north than expected is a good sign for us, as the models did not have the low that far north and west. When combined with the models ramping up a bit I see no reason to change my forecast. You have much to learn.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, George001 said: DC busting due to the warm air getting farther north than expected is a good sign for us, as the models did not have the low that far north and west. When combined with the models ramping up a bit I see no reason to change my forecast. Not necessarily. It's not unusual for warmer mid-level air to get further north than expected...in fact it should be expected at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, George001 said: DC busting due to the warm air getting farther north than expected is a good sign for us, as the models did not have the low that far north and west. When combined with the models ramping up a bit I see no reason to change my forecast. DC always busts. It doesn't mean anything beyond that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Not necessarily. It's not unusual for warmer mid-level air to get further north than expected...in fact it should be expected at this point. I agree it’s not unusual, but when it happens it typically means the low is farther west than expected. we have had several storms this year do that. The mid dec storm, the early feb storm, Superbowl Sunday storm, and now this one. In all 3 other storms the low ended up farther west and stronger than modeled. Now to be fair that doesn’t always mean more snow for us, in the early feb storm it actually meant less since the farther west low allowed more warm air to come in than expected, keeping totals down. The difference is we are on the northern edge of guidance this time where as then we were on the southern edge. Warm air farther north than expected in the mid Atlantic is good for us if we are on the northern edge of guidance and bad if we are on the southern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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