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February 18th ?19th?


Typhoon Tip
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7 hours ago, wxsniss said:

Thanks Don

I've never used PMM before. Anyone know how probability-matched mean is calculated and when to use it compared to the regular mean?

I don’t have the calculation, but there are some papers that suggest that it is more accurate than the mean, because it addresses ensemble member bias.

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1 minute ago, George001 said:

DC busting due to the warm air getting farther north than expected is a good sign for us, as the models did not have the low that far north and west. When combined with the models ramping up a bit I see no reason to change my forecast.

Not necessarily. It's not unusual for warmer mid-level air to get further north than expected...in fact it should be expected at this point.

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10 minutes ago, George001 said:

DC busting due to the warm air getting farther north than expected is a good sign for us, as the models did not have the low that far north and west. When combined with the models ramping up a bit I see no reason to change my forecast.

DC always busts. It doesn't mean anything beyond that.

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Not necessarily. It's not unusual for warmer mid-level air to get further north than expected...in fact it should be expected at this point.

I agree it’s not unusual, but when it happens it typically means the low is farther west than expected. we have had several storms this year do that. The mid dec storm, the early feb storm, Superbowl Sunday storm, and now this one. In all 3 other storms the low ended up farther west and stronger than modeled. Now to be fair that doesn’t always mean more snow for us, in the early feb storm it actually meant less since the farther west low allowed more warm air to come in than expected, keeping totals down. The difference is we are on the northern edge of guidance this time where as then we were on the southern edge. Warm air farther north than expected in the mid Atlantic is good for us if we are on the northern edge of guidance and bad if we are on the southern edge.

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