tavwtby Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 i honestly don't see anything more than 3-5" anywhere unless we tick north a little more, or some mid-level magic forcing, but that seems to be a couple hundred miles south...shame I was hoping for a decent thumping...btw, 0430 waking every day, never set an alarm in my life, just always awoke at that time for some reason, doesn't mean I always got up and did stuff but wake up regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3K a little better. Maybe we can get a tad more robust WAA and some mid level action with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: yeah nam sucks, this went to shit Maybe but that radar upstream looks good damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: NAM looking like dung isn’t a good start to 00z If you told me the that after the 18Z Euro the NAM at 00Z would come in drier than any of its previous runs I wouldn’t have believed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe. It all gets tiresome. Probably why I’m aggravated by a 36hr event dropping 3-6”. We’ve been slammed at work too, so it all combines. at least this is interesting, I mean the whole board is here, in summer its freaking 5 people talking about dews and droughts daily 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: Maybe but that radar upstream looks good damn it does, but it will all get shunted south/east.. but who knows, I hope I wake up to a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Bostonseminole said: it does, but it will all get shunted south/east.. but who knows, I hope I wake up to a surprise. I noticed the 3km NAM looked better out to 60h. A lot better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Our weather in New England in spring is an utter dumpster fire most of the time....I’d rather have an event give me an inch of snow over 40 hours than entertain the idea of enduring countless wheel-o-rhea days to try and sneak in a few nice ones in between. Anyways, 00z NAM definitely didn’t help anything on this storm. 3km continues to look a little better than 12km. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 NAM is garbage, it initialized badly. The low is farther west and stronger than what the nam has. Red is where the low is yellow is where the nam had it. Many on this board even those well to the north and west will end up surprised to see that they ended up with over a foot of snow rather just the couple of inches they are forecast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Man radar making a beeline for the region. Effing thing just gets shunted east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 58 minutes ago, George001 said: I’m glad I held off on taking em down, the high end of my forecast is going to bust but it looks like the low end is still in play (widespread foot with 16 jackpots) based on the obs of the low being both stronger and farther west than expected. It appears that the models underestimated the convection down south, the low is tapping into even more gulf moisture than expected and as a result is bombing out more than expected, and is coming more north and west than expected. The stronger low throwing precip back farther west, which on top of the low itself being more north and west than expected is leading to precip getting into areas like WV that we’re not forecast to be getting anything at this hour. The models right now have the 2nd low scraping the cape, but when taking obs into account it is appearing more likely that the 2nd low is going to undergo bombogenesis and bring heavy snow as far west as the berkshires. I’m starting to think the mistake I made was losing confidence in my forecast just because of one bad set of runs. Bad runs will make you loose confidence...especially if it happens in public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 RGEM is looking better actually. Nice little bump NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Interesting how the euro looked a little better, RGEM looks better and NAM looks blah. Radar looks great but I've seen that a THOUSAND times before. Wake up tomorrow and its shunted east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 You can actually track that fronto finger over the Apps right now. It’s progged to weaken, but if models are wrong, that may be a surprise for a narrow area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Interesting how the euro looked a little better, RGEM looks better and NAM looks blah. Radar looks great but I've seen that a THOUSAND times before. Wake up tomorrow and its shunted east When the radar looks great it means overperformer most of the time. There is nothing suggesting that the low will be shunted east. This is coming west all of Mass will likely get 12+. The radar supports my forecast, not the nam. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM is looking better actually. Nice little bump NW. Decent bump NW with best rates into eastern CT, RI, MA.. compare 9z Fri People can see it here before other vendors: https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Interesting meso battle going on with NAM the outlier tonight. WRF members have over .5 as well. RAP HRRR all look similar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Icon is a lot better too. Quite a sizable move from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Give me two big monitors, keyboard, mouse, comfy chair any day or night. My wife doesn't give two shits...wait until you're 61! Some of us still have actual stereos, CD players and turntables in our living rooms. Anyway, looks like some winter love for most of SNE the next two days. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Icon is a lot better too. Quite a sizable move from 18z. Certainly better with part 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 It’s possible the guidance was in limbo about which aspect to focus on which was diminishing both ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Am I the only meteorologist who has never once pulled up the ICON? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Am I the only meteorologist who has never once pulled up the ICON? Lol whens the big move to SC with Scooter, friends are asking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Certainly better with part 2. There is real upside with that if it breaks right... I mean... not something you see that often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You can actually track that fronto finger over the Apps right now. It’s progged to weaken, but if models are wrong, that may be a surprise for a narrow area. The fronto finger makes me nervous actually. RAP starting to account for it, and my concern is being parked on the street if it snows before morning I could get towed. Wasn’t planning on moving the car til tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Fronto finger of fate? Move your car in the morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM is looking better actually. Nice little bump NW. I'm feeling bust. High end. May need to upgrade areas to warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Am I the only meteorologist who has never once pulled up the ICON? I didn’t until recently. I wanted to track its accuracy and figured I’d give it the season. so far it’s not impressive with details while seeming reasonably good at general system awareness in space if that makes any sense 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Icon evolution is interesting... almost fades out tomorrow’s deal and focuses on Friday. If that becomes a trend... still a solid 36 hours to trend the Friday deal more potent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Would need to see papa GFS, son of GFS, and euro to buy into a better part 2. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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