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February 18th ?19th?


Typhoon Tip
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39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was more than Vernon but the median still had bare patches. It was def less than north of exit 71 in Union where it was fully covered in the median. But exit 68-69 is down around 500-600 feet on that stretch. 

I get off on 69 most every day when I go to my girlfriends house.   Even from Manchester up to that point the difference is noticeable. 

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1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

From the reports I have seen, it looks like this system has been overproducing down south.

This gives me hope that we can have an outside shot at reaching the lower end of my forecast. Obs are arguably more valuable than model data at this point (both are useful though, it would still be foolish to outright ignore the models). A great example of this is the Superbowl sunday storm, the models had 2-4 inches over my area, and even with ratios only 5-6. However, the obs did not match the model data at all, the precip was more expansive and the low was stronger and more northwest than forecasted, which was a huge red flag that forecasts were too low. Some good signs when the models have the snow to the south are more precip than expected down south, the rain snow line being farther north than expected, and the mountains and interior areas overproducing while DC and the coastal mid atlantic gets screwed by a warm layer. One thing I learned from my time on the other mid Atlantic centered board is we are often rooting for the opposite things. DC weenies love strong El Niño’s like 2015-2016, where as my area loves strong la ninas like 2010-2011. DC weenies often wants a more de amplified and farther south low to avoid mixing where as eastern mass weenies want a more amplified solution that might rain there. The key is what does the storm do down south, if the DC posters on the other board are rejoicing, we are probably screwed and if the DC posters are screaming bust, we are likely in for a major storm.

That said there are exceptions such as Jan 1996, but the setup for this storm is nothing like that one, and looks to be a more typical situation where it’s DC and the coastal mid Atlantic getting it or us getting it.

 

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3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

I get off on 69 most every day when I go to my girlfriends house.   Even from Manchester up to that point the difference is noticeable. 

I can’t tell you the number of times I’ve seen winter wonderland at top of that hill and as soon as you hit bottom on Vernon line it’s grass. Elevation events . Probably 75+ times over the years

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13 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I think the Euro is going to play catch-up with some of the other models at 0z as far as qpf is concerned.

Let’s see if others at 00z bump north first. I’ve had this feeling we’d see a bump north with this being a southern origin but obviously nothing is guaranteed. 

I have also thought the models would play a little catchup on the midlevel stuff. Hopefully that is the case. 

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