40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Look at the 200/300mb winds. They are ripping right along. Gradients at the surface are constructive, gradients aloft are destructive....same reason a hurricane gets sheared apart, despite being over bath water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: Good run. Almost time to whip this out on the season. Chicken Kabobs? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Look at the 200/300mb winds. They are ripping right along. I've noticed you've been using winds a lot in your forecasting lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: If you’re looking at qpf sure. We know how these go however When will they ever learn? We tried to tell them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 HRRR is a dumpster fire. Time to move on to Morch. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 38 minutes ago, dendrite said: Good run. Almost time to whip this out on the season. Not enough rust on that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, CT Rain said: HRRR is a dumpster fire. Time to move on to Morch. Are you looking at QPF and Dynamics? You know how these work.... rely on trends, and then if isn't there, imagine it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Glad I was spared the pain of reading the posts as the models were coming out and could just skip to the punchline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Are you looking at QPF and Dynamics? You know how these work.... rely on trends, and then if isn't there, imagine it. Both. I mean just sort of weak and strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, CT Rain said: Both. I mean just sort of weak and strung out. Strung out over days and days and days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 at this point, just get the first batch the F out of the way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: If you’re looking at qpf sure. We know how these go however How do they go? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 22 minutes ago, CT Rain said: HRRR is a dumpster fire. Time to move on to Morch. 12z GFS says 1st week of March will have the coldest temps of the season (and there's a 0.01% chance of that verifying.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Strung out over days and days and days. If you're strung out, its time for some Narcan™ 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 25 minutes ago, CT Rain said: HRRR is a dumpster fire. Time to move on to Morch. 18z ? Odd it prints out .5 qpf and dynamics seem better. I may be wrong but seems Scooter shit streak is lifting out sooner. The story isn't told yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 35 minutes ago, kdxken said: I've noticed you've been using winds a lot in your forecasting lately. Gotta start from the top down. Some start from the ground up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: 18z ? Odd it prints out .5 qpf and dynamics seem better. I may be wrong but seems Scooter shit streak is lifting out sooner. The story isn't told yet. Folks are just wasted today . Down is up , up is down , Beer is wine, whine is beer 4 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 ALY is converting watches to advisories...3-5 for litchfield, which, at this time seems reasonable over a long duration. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Nammy trying to beef up part 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 NAM coming in with the Hail Mary for eastern areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 18z NAM trying to get part 2 going, but a bit too late. Rather big change from 12z at least. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 NAM coming back down to earth and is starting to align with other globals for the front end but HR45-48 looks worlds different than 12Z, really trying to get part 2 goin...but its not enough for CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 almost verbatim, thats creepy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: 18z NAM trying to get part 2 going, but a bit too late. Rather big change from 12z at least. It got Mutombo'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: NAM coming back down to earth and is starting to align with other globals for the front end but HR45-48 looks worlds different than 12Z, really trying to get part 2 goin...but its not enough for CT Not just CT either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I’ll take a 24hr+ event even if it’s mood flakes at times. Just love the feel of it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’ll take a 24hr+ event even if it’s mood flakes at times. Just love the feel of it. Nice to have snow in the air over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 It’s what Tippy mentioned earlier. We could sneak in some Nogueira snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s what Tippy mentioned earlier. We could sneak in some Nogueira snows. So 10 to 14 is out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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