40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: God forbid an Ens mean gives you a tenth less. I mean just measure on a garbage can next to your roof and you will gain it back Measure on TB's ball bag. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 With any luck we get a mini 12 21 09 with a similar gradient 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Measure on TB's ball bag. You would rather measure on TB 12 balls 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 It's hard to imagine more than an advisory level 2-4 /3-5 Inch snowfall for much of the interior. Far southern interior / south coastal areas could benefit more from the initial waa thump and eastern /southeastern areas could benefit a little bit more if the follow-up wave trends a little bit closer. Perhaps we could see some low-end warning amounts in some of those areas with S and SW Connecticut seeming like the best chance as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What a snowhole and who lives in SECT? Moosup is almost the bisection point between north and south CT, looking at the eastern part of the state (maybe a hair north of that line). Definitely not southeast. I thought we had a Stonington poster here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: You would rather measure on TB 12 balls Can't wait for when you heal up and we can see more pics of you and TB skiing together in thongs....NB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 22 minutes ago, das said: This has nothing to do with model performance. It’s not called modelology. If your forecast is based on model read outs rather than an understanding of cloud physics, fluid dynamics and numerical weather prediction comprehension, it’s not a forecast at all. I agree with this, models are a tool not meant to be taken as gospel. This is why I ignore those 10:1 ratio maps. I am trying to analyze the dynamics and temp profiles in the upper levels of the atmosphere to make my forecasts, which I wasn’t doing last month, and it did lead to some improvement but I clearly still have a long way to go before becoming a competent forecaster. However there is no excuse for a model to shift 50 miles east in one run this close to the event, especially with the atmospheric drivers in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: For the most part that is the way it is. People who have less of a vested interest in a storm tend to pull an Irish exit out of the forum, or at least post less when the trend is not their friend. With the exception of a few, most of us are guilty of this. Hopefully those not invested post less and pull an exit. It makes for better discussion when those who aren't invested or out of it don’t post. Exceptions being people like Brian and Will who always add science in their reasoning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: Moosup is almost the bisection point between north and south CT, looking at the eastern part of the state (maybe a hair north of that line). Definitely not southeast. I thought we had a Stonington poster here. Closer to Mass by 3 miles than LI sound if it matters at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We all get along just fine. Families fight and forgive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can't wait for when you heal up and we can see more pics of you and TB skiing together in thongs....NB I would give my right arm to do it alas it will never happen again unless I want to be paralyzed or bleed out from internal bleeding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, George001 said: I agree with this, models are a tool not meant to be taken as gospel. This is why I ignore those 10:1 ratio maps. I am trying to analyze the dynamics and temp profiles in the upper levels of the atmosphere to make my forecasts, which I wasn’t doing last month, and it did lead to some improvement but I clearly still have a long way to go before becoming a competent forecaster. Tool is the key word here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Back to the storm discussion.. I find there are more red flags than green ones I think QPF output has been too generous. Mechanics are just not there for widespread 6-8"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: Moosup is almost the bisection point between north and south CT, looking at the eastern part of the state (maybe a hair north of that line). Definitely not southeast. I thought we had a Stonington poster here. Yea. I consider Steve ECT never SECT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I would give my right arm to do it alas it will never happen again unless I want to be paralyzed or bleed out from internal bleeding. Could be worse, but that sucks...at least you're alive. More time to hallucinate high ratios into existence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I think the GEM bailing essentially removes any residual sliver of hope for the higher end solution, but 12z EURO can confirm in about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Back to the storm discussion.. I find there are more red flags than green ones I think QPF output has been too generous. Mechanics are just not there for widespread 6-8"+ They were yesterday’s runs but those jet dynamics seem to have evaporated into thin air on the newer runs. My interpretation of the atmospheric drivers must have been way off, with other storms I was able to identify where I went wrong but this one I just can’t figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Could be slipping away down here... Ryan just tweeted out, “a few inches over a couple of days, this is no big deal” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Could be slipping away down here... Ryan just tweeted out, “a few inches over a couple of days, this is no big deal” Hopefully Ryan posts less and pulls an exit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 19 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said: It's hard to imagine more than an advisory level 2-4 /3-5 Inch snowfall for much of the interior. Far southern interior / south coastal areas could benefit more from the initial waa thump and eastern /southeastern areas could benefit a little bit more if the follow-up wave trends a little bit closer. Perhaps we could see some low-end warning amounts in some of those areas with S and SW Connecticut seeming like the best chance as of now. Like we haven’t seen these things trend north all season? Recall yesterday for example. And the idea the more that wrapped up , the better this next one would be. There’s literally nothing to prevent this from bumping north . The SE ridge always wins 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 CMC/RGEM had been the most robust with the reinvigoration and CCB portion for eastern SNE... 12z old GFS now on its own. Still can't completely rule it out, but the trend is not good and we need that well-timed infusion of shortwave energy to reappear. Otherwise, mechanics are just not there for more than 2-4" north of pike / 3-6" south, spots 7-8" along southcoast, and maybe a little enhancement east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I feel pretty good of at least a wintery few days here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully Ryan posts less and pulls an exit Some of us have already picked up on the lack of comments by certain posters today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Could be worse, but that sucks...at least you're alive. More time to hallucinate high ratios into existence. Can we get the new GFS run please. Holy heck not for this thread but explosion in the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Can we get the new GFS run please. Holy heck not for this thread but explosion in the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I’m not as confident as I was 12 hours ago but there is still the possibility that these are just off runs. I’m still going to stick to my guns because we haven’t lost the euro yet and I haven’t seen any huge red flags indicating this south trend isn’t BS in regards to the atmospheric drivers in place. However, I would be lying if I said that this storm isn’t making me question everything I thought I knew about meteorology and forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Thinking 2 to 3 here southern ct might do good maybe 6 to 10 there? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Funny how the goalposts shift. A month ago we'd have been giddy at the prospect of a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Ray laughs and yet it was he who posted we needed Tuesday to wrap up so Thursday would amp . Didn’t he say he understood micro physics as a pre forecaster? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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