Hailstoned Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 53 minutes ago, George001 said: I’m not expecting a blizzard, more sustained mod snow for 30 hours or so. However the latest run of the navy was more south though so I have to admit that is a red flag. I’m still waiting to see if it was just an off run or a trend before I get too concerned though, that is a fair point though about the navy not looking great. As a forecaster I want to try to be more accurate and avoid those crazy 3-4 feet snow calls that amount to nothing, so even if the models aren’t showing what I want to see I’m not just going to discount them. Blending the navy euro and Canadian still looks good for my idea of a 16-20 jackpot with most areas getting 12-15 when taking ratios into account so I’m going to stick with it, but I would like to see the navy come back north next run. I'll bet if certain "prognosticators" on here were to add up their predicted snow totals over the course of a mere two winter seasons, it would translate to a thousand feet of glacier over our heads (even more over the Cape). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: “Tommy wikey. Tommy wanna pway wif puaple bal-bal” LOL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 12z Canadian sobered up from the 00z binge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Back in my day we got 3-6” of snow and we liked it! Lol. How can you be up set with a 4-7” pack refresher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 12z Canadian sobered up from the 00z binge. Yeah, that’s not a good run at all. It went way east with the low which I did not expect it to do, I’ll give it another run but I’m starting to think I’m going to bust. That’s too bad, the models looked good as they were last night, I don’t know why they shifted 50 miles east but they did, and that destroys my entire forecast. It’s still close but what a terrible performance by the models making that big of a shift this close in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Did you quadruple the output though? I think you are supposed to add together the amounts that all of the models George001 uses are showing. That's how he gets the correct number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 12z Canadian sobered up from the 00z binge. Slip sliden away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, George001 said: Yeah, that’s not a good run at all. It went way east with the low which I did not expect it to do, I’ll give it another run but I’m starting to think I’m going to bust. That’s too bad, the models looked good as they were last night, I don’t know why they shifted 50 miles east but they did, and that destroys my entire forecast. It’s still close but what a terrible performance by the models making that big of a shift this close in. This has nothing to do with model performance. It’s not called modelology. If your forecast is based on model read outs rather than an understanding of cloud physics, fluid dynamics and numerical weather prediction comprehension, it’s not a forecast at all. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, George001 said: Yeah, that’s not a good run at all. It went way east with the low which I did not expect it to do, I’ll give it another run but I’m starting to think I’m going to bust. That’s too bad, the models looked good as they were last night, I don’t know why they shifted 50 miles east but they did, and that destroys my entire forecast. It’s still close but what a terrible performance by the models making that big of a shift this close in. Because you are overly aggressive and out of touch. That’s not the model’s fault. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is one item I plan on crossing off of my bucket list within the next few years....experiencing a 10' pack in the Sierrras...along with a huge LES event. We are in the same boat there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yawn? Lol GFS LOL GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, das said: This has nothing to do with model performance. It’s not called modelology. If your forecast is based on model read outs rather than an understanding of cloud physics, fluid dynamics and numerical weather prediction comprehension, it’s not a forecast at all. BOOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Because you are overly aggressive and out of touch. That’s not the model’s fault. It seems pretty obvious that he's trolling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, RDRY said: It seems pretty obvious that he's trolling. I think he is Dr. Dews alter ego. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 George is Dr. Dew's cold weather troll account. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, das said: This has nothing to do with model performance. It’s not called modelology. If your forecast is based on model read outs rather than an understanding of cloud physics, fluid dynamics and numerical weather prediction comprehension, it’s not a forecast at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, das said: This has nothing to do with model performance. It’s not called modelology. If your forecast is based on model read outs rather than an understanding of cloud physics, fluid dynamics and numerical weather prediction comprehension, it’s not a forecast at all. You are exactly right, and this is what distinguishes many of the pro mets from the more knowledgeable hobbyists, such as myself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't care what it did, or didn't do in YBY. Then add imby to every one of your posts. Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Then add imby to every one of your posts. Thanks in advance Put your reading glasses on and look at the locale of the poster for perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Put your reading glasses on and look at the locale of the poster for perspective. I think it's been pretty evident for over a decade that you only care about you back yard, as do most on here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 55 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 12z runs trending from a yawner to a snoozer. I'm adopting a new category system for winter storms: Cat 5 = George001 Fantasy Land Cat 4 = James and the Magic Gulf Stream Cat 3 = Scooter Approved Cat 2 = Yawner Cat 1 = Snoozer 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, HimoorWx said: I'm adopting a new category system for winter storms: Cat 5 = George001 Fantasy Land Cat 4 = James and the Magic Gulf Stream Cat 3 = Scooter Approved Cat 2 = Yawner Cat 1 = Snoozer A+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I think it's been pretty evident for over a decade that you only care about you back yard, as do most on here. I mean....I live on the NH border, and the entire swatch of snow clearly edged bodily south..how complicated is it. Does he need a venn diagram to know that he's better off in SE CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Because you are overly aggressive and out of touch. That’s not the model’s fault. It is when it shifts 50 miles east in one run 2 days out. My forecast was based on a combination of the jet dynamics, upper level temps, and the storm track being a blend of the euro Canadian and navy. I also used the atmospheric drivers such as La Niña and polar vortex to assess what the fail risk is. With a strong southeast ridge in play and energy fairly far west, I believed the risk was storm would trend so far north we rain, which is why I didn’t buy into those all snow solutions Monday. Everything I looked at screamed overperformer, especially being a bit south with the pattern in place giving us room for some North ticks. It just doesn’t make sense that in a strong La Niña with a southeast ridge and energy amplifying to the west that we miss to the south. That’s why I was so aggressive with my forecast, like with other storms such as the feb 1-2 one I know why I busted (called for 2 ft in Bos, underestimated the well above avg ocean temps making it easy for mild air to come in and worsen the snow ratios as well as change precip to rain). For this one? I have no idea where I went wrong. Everything I looked at, and still everything I am looking at screams overperformer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Put your reading glasses on and look at the locale of the poster for perspective. That tenth of an inch on Ens is huge.I can see how you are concerned and felt the need to post how much worse 6z was then 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: That tenth of an inch on Ens is huge.I can see how you are concerned and felt the need to post how much worse 6z was then 0Z I said "worse", which it was. I did not quantify it, you did. Small changes are significant when someone is on the edge. Learn some things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean....I live on the NH border, and the entire swatch of snow clearly edged bodily south..how complicated is it. Does he need a venn diagram to know that he's better off in SE CT? What a snowhole and who lives in SECT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I think it's been pretty evident for over a decade that you only care about you back yard, as do most on here. For the most part that is the way it is. People who have less of a vested interest in a storm tend to pull an Irish exit out of the forum, or at least post less when the trend is not their friend. With the exception of a few, most of us are guilty of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I said "worse", which it was. I did not quantify it, you did. Small changes are significant when someone is on the edge. Learn some things. God forbid an Ens mean gives you a tenth less. I mean just measure on a garbage can next to your roof and you will gain it back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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