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February 18th ?19th?


Typhoon Tip
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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How long did it take you get muted on the other forum? I need a plausible over/under...

It took me 2 weeks. They said I wasn’t learning but I disagree. When I first joined that forum I didn’t even know what a La Niña was and now I know what La Niña, El Niño, and even the polar vortex are. 

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

3k is a shredded mess.... everyone loses if that is the evolution.

Im kind of surprised you are poo pooing this. With the lack of all snow events in your local this winter, you’d think you’d be welcoming this.

I've done just as fine as you. But I'm with Ray on a protracted event that drops a few inches. Give it to the scallop fisherman in Buzzards Bay. 

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9 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m forecasting 16-20 for your area

 

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How long did it take you get muted on the other forum? I need a plausible over/under...

 

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

George, what current model guidance are you using to back your assertions?  Not one model is showing that much potential in the upper air pattern.

He hugs the Navy and is worse than me.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure why you insist on double digit snowfall. I don’t totally hate the upside of this storm but a lot would need to go right to pull 10-12. It hasn’t trended that way so far. 

He gets 6-8” just from the thump( putting qpf aside) since they’ve busted on qpf all winter and then there’s another 2-4 at least from round 2/OES. Unlike the last several. This one has some upside . I mean it snows all day Friday in all areas and his area possibly into Saturday AM

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

George, what current model guidance are you using to back your assertions?  Not one model is showing that much potential in the upper air pattern.

I use a 60/25/15 euro Canadian navy blend. I completely ignore the 10:1 snowfall maps when making my forecast, I am looking at things like jet dynamics, temps in the upper levels, ect. To me everything is screaming high ratio overperformer, Imo the euro evolution would get most areas to the lower end of my forecast, with the Canadian getting most areas to the higher end.  

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1 minute ago, George001 said:

I use a 60/25/15 euro Canadian navy blend. I completely ignore the 10:1 snowfall maps when making my forecast, I am looking at things like jet dynamics, temps in the upper levels, ect. To me everything is screaming high ratio overperformer, Imo the euro evolution would get most areas to the lower end of my forecast, with the Canadian getting most areas to the higher end.  

oh.  
Sounds like a solid plan. 
Good luck.

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I’m definitely a huge weenie but in my opinion James has earned the #1 spot with his 40 inch forecasts for cape cod and his book. I’m planning on buying a copy. Though on the other form I did call for 3-4 feet for the Jan 29th threat that ended up going out to sea, that ended up being a huge bust.

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HRRR looks pretty aggressive into middle of SWCT and still snowing.  First leap north today. Obviously gonna be a game time call. We need some help moving the Scooter shit streak. On the plus side a long lasting NE fetch with additional salt nuclei should assist in snow growth and provide eastern areas with a long lasting steady snow state.

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